关键词: 香蕉, 低温灾害, 灰色因素, GIS, 漳州市

Abstract:  The grey system theory was used to analyze low temperature disaster in Zhangzhou during 20th-27th December 1999 which caused a reduced banana production rate. The results indicated that extreme lowtemperature was the most important factor of the disaster. The longer the low temperature continued, the more serious the harm was. With low temperature factors, the most relevancy degree was the number of days during which daily minimum temperature slid ＜5.0℃ for each 5 days. Based on the established pattern, annual average extreme low temperature of accuracy of 50m×50m grid resolution was inferred. According to the given criterion and combined geographical information with low temperature, it showed distribution characteristics of the frost damage of low temperature of bananas in Zhangzhou. It provided scientific decisionmaking proposal for the government to arrange banana production and for farmers to utilize advantaged condition to avoid disaster. 