关键词: 年平均气温, 年降水量, 气候变化, ECHAM5/MPI-OM模式, 淮河流域

Abstract: Based on observed data from 1958 to 2007 and climate projection data from 2011 to 2060 by ECHAM5/MPI-OM,annual temperature change,the maximum and minimum extreme temperature,agricultural threshold temperature and annual precipitation in Huaihe river basin were analyzed.The results showed that annual temperature decreased before 1990s and then increased.Winter temperature increased and summer temperature decreased.The occurrence of both extreme temperature events and variation of temperature decreased in 1958-2007,but the first day of all agricultural threshold temperatures advanced and the last day delayed.The cumulative number of days and temperature increased continuity.For spatial distribution,the increase trend of temperature in east of the Huaihe river basin was stronger than western.Annual precipitation and extreme precipitation showed no significant change trend from 1958 to 2007 and had a relatively significant change in summer.Comparing with climate from 1961 to 1990,annual temperature would increase significantly during 2011-2060 under three scenarios,SRES-A1B scenarios increasing would higher than other two scenarios and significant since 2040.There would be maximum increasing rates in winter under three scenarios.Annual precipitation would have no significant change under three scenarios,the seasonal percentages of annual rainfall would not change obviously.Spring and summer precipitation accounted for 70% of annual precipitation.

Key words: Annual mean temperature, Annual precipitation, Climate change, ECHAM5/ MPI-OM Model, Huaihe river basin