《气候变化2014：影响、适应和脆弱性》对农业气象学科发展的启示

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2014.04.001

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 通过对政府间气候变化专门委员会第二工作组（IPCC AR5 WGII）的报告《气候变化2014：影响、适应和脆弱性》有关涉农章节的解读，分析有助于国内外农业气象学科发展的科学问题，并提出进一步研究的优先领域。IPCC认为，如果不考虑适应，局地温度比20世纪晚期升高2℃或更多，对热带和温带地区主要作物产量（小麦、水稻和玉米）都将产生负面影响。预计的影响随作物、区域和适应情景而不同。约10%的研究结果预测2030-2049年比20世纪晚期可能增产10%，也有10%的研究结果则预测减产25%以上。对比国内有关气候变化对农业影响评估的研究，反映的差距主要集中在：（1）农业系统对气候变化敏感程度和脆弱性的定量评估能力较弱；（2）难以识别气候对农业的直接和间接影响程度；（3）综合研究不够，还不能定量分析各种非气候因素的贡献；（4）适应对策实例和经验总结不够，有关的成本效益分析不够。建议本学科优先在以下领域进一步深入研究：（1）更新并完善粮食生产影响模型，建立区域和全球尺度的、可靠的、综合的粮食系统模型；（2）进一步认识CO2与臭氧对作物生长的综合影响程度，高温和低温对作物的影响，以及干旱和洪涝的生理阈值；（3）开展与各种变暖情景有关的粮食生产实验和模拟，包括作物、家畜、渔业、水果和蔬菜等生产要素以及加工、分配及零售和消费模式等非生产要素的气候影响和适应。

关键词: 气候变化, 影响与适应, 农业系统, CO2

Abstract: Through the understanding of the assessment of impacts，adaptation and vulnerability in the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report（WGII AR5）in related chapters with agriculture，the current situation，research gapes and proposed priorities of future studies were analyzed. IPCC suggested that，climate change without adaptation is projected to mainly negatively impact production for local temperature increases of 2℃ or more above the late-20th century levels， projected impacts vary across crops and regions and adaptation scenarios， with about 10% of projections for the period 2030-2049 showing yield gains of more than 10%， and about 10% of projections showing yield losses of more than 25%， compared to the late 20th century. But the research gaps showed from the assessment of climate change impacts on Chinese agriculture mainly focus on：（1）the quantified assessment ability of sensitivity and vulnerability of agriculture system for climate change is still weak;（2）the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on agriculture were difficultly detected and attributed；（3）there were not enough of integration studies，did not quantify contributions of the nonclimate factors；（4）there were less adaptation implementation and experience summary， less cost/benefit analysis. The priorities of future studies suggested in these area：（1）revising and improving impact models of food production，establish regional and global credible integrated models of food system；（2）further understanding the influence degree of CO2 associate with O3 on crops，impacts of high and low temperature on crops and physiological thresholds of drought and flood；（3）developing several experiments and simulations of climate impacts and adaptation on food production related with different warming scenarios， including crops， animals，fishery，fruits and vegetables as production factors and nonproduction factors，e.g. processing，distributing，retailing and consume models.

Key words: Climate change, Impact and adaptation, Agriculture systems, CO2

林而达，谢立勇. 《气候变化2014：影响、适应和脆弱性》对农业气象学科发展的启示[J]. 中国农业气象, 2014, 35(04): 359-364.

LIN Er da，XIE Li yong. Revelation of Agrometeorology Learning From Climate Change 2014∶Impact， Adaptation，and Vulnerability[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2014, 35(04): 359-364.

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