RCP情景下长江中下游地区水稻生育期内高温事件的变化特征

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.04.002

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于1981-2009年历史气象数据和全球气候模式HadGEM2-ES输出的未来2021-2050年RCP气候情景数据，采用日最高温度大于35℃的高温日数（HSD）、高温最长持续日数（MCD）和高温有效积温（HDD），分析过去和未来长江中下游地区水稻生育期高温事件频率、持续时间和强度的变化特征。结果表明：1981-2009年，长江中下游地区水稻生育期内温度升高，各高温指标均一致显著增加，Tmax（平均日最高气温）、HSD、MCD、HDD的气候倾向率分别为0.51℃·10a-1，3.9d·10a-1，0.6d·10a-1和8.2℃·d·10a-1，空间上表现为由北向南递增。除MCD外，Tmax、HSD和HDD均在2001-2002年发生由少到多的突变。2021-2050年两种RCP情景下，长江中下游大部分地区水稻生育期间日最高气温持续升高，高温日数增多，持续时间延长，高温强度增强。RCP2.6情景下，水稻生育期内Tmax、HSD、MCD、HDD较基准时段（1981-2009年）分别增加1.5℃、11.3d、5.6d和45.3℃·d，RCP8.5情景下分别增加1.7℃、15.4d、6.2d和61.1℃·d，且各高温事件在高值区的概率进一步加大。各指标的空间变化特征具有差异性，Tmax、HSD和MCD的增加幅度由东南向西北递增，湖南西部和江苏北部等基准期温度相对较低的地区增幅更大，而HDD的增幅以中部地区较大。湖北、安徽、湖南和江西中北部是未来高温事件频率、持续时间和强度均大幅增加的地区，防灾减灾工作严峻，需采取调整水稻播期，更替耐高温品种等措施减轻高温对水稻的危害。

关键词: 水稻, RCP情景, 高温有效积温, 高温日数, 高温最长持续日数

Abstract: Based on historical weather data from 1981 to 2009 and future climate data generated by HadGEM2-ES simulation with RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios from 2021 to 2050, frequency, duration and intensity of high temperature events during rice growth period in middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River (MLRYR) were analyzed by heat stress days (HSD), maximum continuous heat stress days (MCD) and heat degree days (HDD). The results indicated that high temperature events increased significantly in MLRYR in 1981-2009. Tmax（average of the maximum daily temperature）, HSD, MCD, HDD increased by 0.51℃·10y-1, 3.9d·10y-1, 0.6d·10y-1 and 8.2℃·d·10y-1, respectively. Except for MCD, detectable increases of Tmax, HSD and HDD were at the year around 2001-2002, indicating frequency and intensity of high temperature rise sharply since 2002. The largest increase of high temperature events mainly located in the south of the region. Relative to the reference period of 1981-2009, high temperature events increased substantially in 2021-2050. Tmax, HSD, MCD and HDD increased by 1.5℃, 11.3d, 5.6d and 45.3℃·d, respectively, under RCP2.6 scenario, and increased by 1.7℃, 15.4d, 6.2d, 61.1℃·d, respectively, under RCP8.5 scenario. The risk of extreme high temperature events increased more under RCP8.5 scenario than RCP2.6 scenario relative to baseline condition. Changes of Tmax, HSD and MCD showed similar spatial pattern, all increased from southeast to northwest. But for HDD, the largest increase mainly located in the middle of the region. Frequency, duration and intensity of high temperature events all largely increased in the regions of the middle and north part of Hubei, Anhui, Hunan and Jiangxi Province under future RCP scenarios. Adjusting the planting day and replacing high temperature tolerated varieties are the effective measures to reducing high temperature stress to rice in these regions.

Key words: Rice, RCPs scenario, High temperature days, Maximum continuous high temperature days, High temperature degree days

冯灵芝，熊伟，居辉，曹阳，杨笛. RCP情景下长江中下游地区水稻生育期内高温事件的变化特征[J]. 中国农业气象, 2015, 36(04): 383-392.

FENG Ling-zhi, XIONG Wei, JU Hui, CAO Yang, YANG Di. Changes of High Temperature Events During Rice Growth Period in MLRYR Under RCP Scenarios[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2015, 36(04): 383-392.

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