气候变化对天山北坡经济带设施农业气候适宜性的影响

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2016.05.001

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

新疆天山北坡经济带冬季寒冷且漫长、日照时数少、部分地区多大风，气候条件对设施农业生产总体不利。开展气候变化对该地区设施农业气候适宜性的影响研究，对适应气候变化，科学制定天山北坡经济带设施农业布局和发展规划具有重要意义。利用天山北坡经济带35个气象台站1961-2014年逐年≤0℃负积温、12月-翌年2月日照时数和10月-翌年4月大风日数资料，通过线性趋势分析、累积距平和t检验以及基于ArcGIS的混合插值法对各要素的时空变化进行分析。结合实际调查获取的设施农业气候适宜性区划指标，对比分析了1988年前、后天山北坡经济带设施农业气候适宜性区划的变化。结果表明：天山北坡经济带≤0℃负积温具有高山带多，平原次之，中、低山带少；12月-翌年2月日照时数高山带和平原少，中、低山带多；10月-翌年4月大风日数峡谷地带及风口和风线多，平原和山区少的特点。1961-2014年天山北坡经济带≤0℃负积温、12月-翌年2月日照时数和10月-翌年4月大风日数分别以50.67℃·d·10a^-1、20.52h·10a^-1和1.31d·10a^-1的倾向率呈极显著（P＜0.001）减少趋势，上述各要素分别于1988、1987和1987年发生突变。受其影响，1988年后较其之前，设施农业适宜区和次适宜区面积分别增加14466.0km² 和4929.7km²，不适宜区减小19395.6km²。

关键词: ≤0℃负积温, 12月-翌年2月日照时数, 10月-翌年4月大风日数, 气候变化, 设施农业, 天山北坡经济带, ArcGIS

Abstract:

Winter was cold and long, sunshine hours were less and gale days were more in economic belt on north slope of Tianshan Mountains(EBNSTM) in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, the climate conditions are unfavorable to facility agriculture. It has great significance, study on the impact of climate change on climate suitability of facility agriculture, to adapt to climate change, scientific arrangements layout and made development planning for facility agriculture in EBNSTM. In this article, using climatic data from 35 meteorological stations in EBNSTM during 1961-2014, the fundamental spatial-temporal change characteristic of negative accumulated temperature of ≤0℃, sunshine hours from Dec. to next Feb. and gale days from Oct. to next Apr. were analyzed by using the methods of linear regression, accumulative anomaly, T-test and mixed spatial interpolation technology based on ArcGIS. And the change of facility agriculture climatic suitability was studied by combining with the climate division indices obtained through the actual investigation. The main results were as the follows: climatic conditions was very obviously different in different regions of EBNSTM, generally, negative accumulated temperature of ≤0℃ were more in alpine zones, followed by plain area, mid-mountain and low mountain zones were less. Sunshine hours from Dec. to Feb were more in mid-mountain and low mountain zones, alpine zones and plain area were less. Gale days from Oct. to Apr. were more in mountain valley areas, were less in mountain and plain areas. In recent 54 years, the three indicators showed a decreasing trend at the rates of -50.67℃·d·10y^-1, -20.52h·10y^-1 and -1.31d·10y^-1, and they had mutation in 1988, 1987 and 1987 respectively. Under the joint effects of the above-mentioned climate factors, the areas of suitable area and sub-suitable area expanded 14466.0km² and 4929.7km² respectively, but the areas of unsuitable area decreased by 19395.6km² after 1988 than before in EBNSTM of Xinjiang.

Key words: Negative accumulated temperature of ≤0℃, Sunshine hours from Dec. to next Feb., Gale days from Oct. to next Apr., Climate change, Facility agriculture, Economic belt on north slope of Tianshan Mountains(EBNSTM), ArcGIS

张山清，普宗朝,李新建，吉春容，傅玮东，宫恒瑞，蒲洁. 气候变化对天山北坡经济带设施农业气候适宜性的影响[J]. 中国农业气象, 2016, 37(05): 495-504.

ZHANG Shan-qing, PU Zong-chao, LI Xin-jian, JI Chun-rong, FU Wei-dong, GONG Heng-rui, PU Jie. Impact of Climate Change on Facility Agriculture Climatic Suitability in Economic Belt on North Slope of Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2016, 37(05): 495-504.

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