呼和浩特自然历主要物候期和物候季节变化特征及归因

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2017.01.002

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 根据内蒙古呼和浩特近32a物候数据并结合气象数据，编制了呼和浩特1983-2014年自然历。通过对比1983-1998年与1999-2014年两个时段的物候变化及其与气候因子的相关性，揭示了1983年以来呼和浩特地区物候季节变化特征及其归因，以期更好地为农业生产和气候、物候研究提供参考。研究发现：与1983-1998年相比，1999-2014年呼和浩特的春季和夏季开始时间普遍提前，秋季和冬季开始时间普遍推迟，其中春季（以垂柳芽膨大期为代表）平均提前7d，夏季（以刺槐盛花期为代表）平均提前4d，秋季（以珍珠梅果实始落期为代表）平均推迟3d，冬季（以榆叶梅叶全变色为代表）平均推迟6d。四季开始物候指标与其前3个月的平均气温、平均日照时数和平均降水量的相关性分析表明：前1个月的平均气温与春季开始物候指标呈显著负相关，与夏季开始物候指标呈极显著负相关，与冬季开始物候期呈显著正相关；前1个月的平均日照时数与秋季开始物候指标呈显著正相关，与冬季开始物候指标呈显著负相关；前1个月的平均降水量与夏季开始物候指标呈显著正相关；前第2月的平均气温与夏季开始物候指标呈显著正相关；前第3月的平均降水量与秋季开始物候指标呈显著负相关。研究表明平均气温的升高成为影响呼和浩特物候期变化的主要原因，平均日照时数和平均降水量也对物候期变化有不同程度的影响。

关键词: 物候学, 气候变化, 中国物候观测网, 呼和浩特, 自然历

Abstract: Based on the continuous phenological observation data of 23 woody plant species in Hohhot from 1983 to 2014, the natural calendar was established, and the changes of main phenophases of natural calendar and phenological seasons since 1983 and the reasons for these changes were revealed by analyzing the differences of phenophases between 1983-1998 and 1999-2014 and the correlation between phenophases changes and climatic factors. The results showed that in comparison with those of 1983-1998 the start time of phenological spring （represented by the time of bud expansion of Salix babylonica） and summer （represented by the time of 50% of full flowering of Robinia pseudoacacia） in 1999-2014 was advanced by 7 days and 4 days separately; while the start time of phenological autumn （represented by the time of fruit drop of Sorbaria kirilowii） and winter （represented by the time of all leaves of Amygdalus triloba coloring） in 1999-2014 was delayed respectively by 3 days and 6 days. The order of phenophase in spring, autumn and winter changed in different degrees. Correlation analysis between the phenological index of the first date of a season and climatic factors preceding three months of the season indicated that the mean air temperature of the first preceding month showed negative correlation with phenological index of the first date of spring, and significantly negative correlation with that of summer, but a positive correlation with that of winter. Mean sunshine duration of the first preceding month was positively correlated with the phenological index of the first date of autumn but a negative correlation with that of winter, and mean rain capacity of the first preceding month was positively correlated with phenological index of the first date of summer. Additionally, the mean air temperature of the second preceding month correlated with the phenological index of the first date of summer negatively; while the mean rain capacity of the third preceding month correlated with that of the first date of autumn negatively. The raise of average temperature was probably the main reason for the changes of phenological season in Hohhot, and the average sunshine duration and average precipitation also affected the changes of phenological season in different extent.

Key words: Phenology, Climate change, China Phenological Observation Network（CPON）, Hohhot, Natural calendar

朱媛君，郝琦，清华，赵利清，朴顺姬. 呼和浩特自然历主要物候期和物候季节变化特征及归因[J]. 中国农业气象, 2017, 38(01): 9-20.

ZHU Yuan-jun, HAO Qi, QING Hua, ZHAO Li-qing, PIAO Shun-ji. Changes of Main Phenophases of Natural Calendar and Phenological Seasons in Hohhot[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2017, 38(01): 9-20.

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