安徽省一季稻产量灾损风险评价

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2017.08.003

中国农业气象 ›› 2017, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (08): 488-495.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2017.08.003

安徽省一季稻产量灾损风险评价

郭建茂，谢晓燕，吴越，王锦杰，申双和

1.南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心，南京 210044；2.江苏省农业气象重点实验室，南京 210044；3.南京信息工程大学应用气象学院，南京 210044

收稿日期:2016-12-20 出版日期:2017-08-20 发布日期:2017-08-15
作者简介:郭建茂（1968-），博士，副教授，主要从事农业遥感和作物生长模拟研究。E-mail：001878@nuist.edu.cn
基金资助:
中国气象局预报预测核心业务发展专项（CMAHX20160311）；江苏省重点研发计划（现代农业）项目（BE2015365）；科技部行业专项（GYHY201506018）；江苏省农业气象重点实验室基金（KYQ201304）；河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室基金课题（AMF201401）

Risk Assessment of Single-season Rice Yield Loss in Anhui Province

GUO Jian-mao, XIE Xiao-yan, WU Yue, WANG Jin-jie, SHEN Shuang-he

1.Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;2. Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044; 3. College of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044

Received:2016-12-20 Online:2017-08-20 Published:2017-08-15

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用安徽省1981-2014年50个市（县）一季稻产量资料，采用直线滑动平均方法计算一季稻相对气象产量，通过正交经验分解（EOF）分析一季稻相对气象产量的时空变化特征，并从一季稻产量灾损角度出发，采用灾年平均减产率、产量变异系数、减产风险指数及区域农业水平指数作为产量灾损风险评估指标，对安徽一季稻产量灾损进行风险区划。结果表明：研究期内安徽省各市（县）一季稻产量变化趋势一致，北部增产或减产较南部明显，2005年之前安徽一季稻产量波动剧烈；不同产量灾损评估指标在空间上表现出一定的地域性和连续性，灾年平均减产率、产量变异系数和减产风险指数均表现为北部数值高于南部，区域农业水平指数呈现由东北向西南减小的趋势。根据产量灾损综合风险指数区划结果，研究区域内北部灾损风险高于南部，风险高值区和中值区主要分布在沿淮、江淮北部，风险低值区面积最广，主要位于皖南山区、沿江地区及江淮南部。

关键词: 一季稻, 相对气象产量, 产量灾损, 区域农业水平指数

Abstract: Based on yield data of single-season rice in 50 city-county from 1981 to 2014 in Anhui province, the relative meteorological yield was calculated by using the methods of linear sliding average in statistical analysis. The temporal and spatial distribution of relative meteorological yield was analyzed by the method of EOF, and by using synthetic risk index of single-season rice yield loss, which was established and consisted of average yield reduction rate, yield variation coefficient, risk index of yield reduction rate and index of regional agricultural levels, the risk regionalization of single-season rice yield loss in Anhui province was completed. The results showed that the change trend of single-season rice yield was consistent and the increase or decrease of yield in the north of Anhui was more obvious than the south. Besides, the relative meteorological yield of Anhui fluctuated violently before 2005. The different assessment indices of yield loss showed that the values of average yield reduction rate, yield variation coefficient and risk index of yield reduction rate in the north part of study areas was higher than the south, and the index of regional agricultural levels for single-season rice was reduced from northeast to southwest. In the study area, the north had the higher risk. The high risk and middle risk regions were mainly distributed in Yanhuai areas and the north of Jianghuai areas. The low risk areas had the widest distribution and were located in southern mountainous area, Yangtze river region and the south of Jianghuai region.

Key words: Single-season rice, Relative meteorological yield, Yield loss, Index of regional agricultural levels

郭建茂，谢晓燕，吴越，王锦杰，申双和. 安徽省一季稻产量灾损风险评价[J]. 中国农业气象, 2017, 38(08): 488-495.

GUO Jian-mao, XIE Xiao-yan, WU Yue, WANG Jin-jie, SHEN Shuang-he. Risk Assessment of Single-season Rice Yield Loss in Anhui Province[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2017, 38(08): 488-495.

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Risk Assessment of Single-season Rice Yield Loss in Anhui Province

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