关键词: 双季早稻, 气候因子, 相对气象产量, 主成分回归

Abstract: Taking the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River as a study area，a simulation model related to meteorological yield of early rice was developed.The dominant climatic factors in three key phenological phases were analyzed based on field experimental data and daily meteorological data from 30 agrometeorological stations during 1981-2010，then an empirical model used to simulate relative meteorological yields of early rice was established by using of the principal component regression method.The model was verified by comparing actual yields and simulated yields of early rice，which calculated with fivepoint moving average method.The results showed that the most important climatic factor for the relative meteorological yields of double cropping early rice was the total precipitation，which showed highly significant negative correlation with the relative meteorological yields of early rice in all three phases（P<0.01）.The second important factor was sunshine hours from heading stage to the end of grain filling，which showed a significant positive correlation with early rice yieldsFurthermore，the three temperature indicators，total thermal effect，average daily maximum temperature and average daily temperature range during the panicle initiation to heading stage，also showed significant positive correlation with early rice yields.The model simulation results showed that the simulated early rice yields were generally consistent with the actual yields，their correlation coefficient reached 0.93 in the typical year（1996），and the average relative error was 7%.It indicated that the model had strong applicability on simulating and predicting the relative meteorological yield of early rice in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River.

Key words: Double cropping early rice, Climatic factors, Relative meteorological yield, Principal component regression