基于多因子关联的冬小麦晚霜冻害分析—以河南省为例

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2018.01.007

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为探究河南省冬小麦实际晚霜冻害发生的气象条件，选取1964-2014年1-3月SPI和1月1日-霜冻日有效温度之和的距平值为前期水分和热量因子，气温日较差距平、日照时数距平、平均相对湿度距平、霜冻日与前一日最低气温差距平为冻害发生时气象因子，将实际霜冻与气象霜冻进行比较，研究不同气象因子间的相关性，并对不同程度冻害进行K-mean聚类分析。结果表明，1964-2014年河南省气象冻害发生频率（0.64）高于实际冻害发生频率（0.52）。气温日较差距平与日照时数呈极显著正相关（P＜0.01）。冻害发生前期气象因子聚类分析结果表明，轻度实际冻害发生前期水分条件较弱、热量条件充足（占比83.33%）；重度实际冻害发生前期水分条件较弱、热量条件较缺乏（占比64.3%）。冻害发生时气象因子聚类分析结果表明，轻度实际冻害发生当日干燥，霜冻日与前一日最低气温差较大、气温下降幅度大且日照时数偏长（占比61.11%）；重度实际冻害发生当日偏湿润、霜冻日与前一日最低气温差较大、气温下降幅度偏小且日照时数偏短（占比71.42%）。研究结果说明实际冻害与气象冻害存在明显差异，气象因子间相互关联共同影响冻害发生。实际冻害形成与前期水分条件不足有关；轻度实际冻害多为辐射型冻害，而重度实际冻害多为混合型冻害。

关键词: 冬小麦, 晚霜冻害, 气象因子, 相关性分析, 聚类分析

Abstract: To clarify the meteorological conditions of winter wheat damaged by late frost in Henan Province, SPI and the effective accumulated temperature anomaly were taken as early water and heat factors, and the anomaly value of daily range, mean relative humidity, sunshine duration and the difference minimum temperature of the last and frost day were selected as meteorological factors when freezing. Then comparing actual late frost and index frost, K-means cluster analysis was taken and the correlation coefficients between any of two meteorological factors in different actual frost level was analyzed. The results showed that the frequency of late frost (0.64) by meteorological indices was higher than the frequency of real happened frost (0.52) in Henan province during 1964-2014. There was positive correlation between sunshine duration anomaly and daily range anomaly. The cluster analysis results with meteorological factors in early stage showed 83.3% mild actual frost correspond the weak water condition and the sufficient heat condition, 64.3% severe actual frost corresponded the weak water condition and insufficient heat condition. The cluster analysis also showed that 61.11% of mild frosts happened under dry, greater daily range of temperature, greater sunshine hours and larger difference minimum temperature between last and frost day, while 71.42% of severe frosts happened under wet, less daily range of temperature, less sunshine hours and larger difference minimum temperature between last and frost day. The results indicated that the actual frost damage was obviously different from the meteorological damage, and the correlation between meteorological factors affects the freezing injury. The actual frost was related to the insufficient water condition in the early stage, and mild frosts were more possible to be radiation frost, and most of severe frosts were mixed frost.

Key words: Winter wheat, Late frost damage, Meteorological factors, Correlation analysis, Cluster analysis

朱虹晖，武永峰，宋吉青，杜克明. 基于多因子关联的冬小麦晚霜冻害分析—以河南省为例[J]. 中国农业气象, 2018, 39(01): 59-68.

ZHU Hong-hui, WU Yong-feng, SONG Ji-qing, DU Ke-ming. Analysis to Late Frost Damage for Winter Wheat Based on Meteorological Factors ——Taking Henan Province as an Example[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2018, 39(01): 59-68.

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