基于APSIM模型评估北方八省春玉米生产对气候变化的响应

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2018.02.005

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于北方地区农业气象试验站春玉米多年田间试验数据和逐日气象数据，分析农业生产系统模型APSIM在北方八省春玉米产区的适用性，在区域尺度上识别春玉米发育期和产量的关键气象响应因子，模拟过去54a（1961?2014年）该地区春玉米的生长发育和产量形成过程，探讨春玉米发育期和产量对气候变化的响应规律。结果表明：验证后的APSIM玉米模型在北方八省春玉米产区具有较好的适用性。气温和土壤温度是北方各地春玉米发育期的首要关键气象响应因子，其中北方春播区春玉米各关键发育期对最高气温响应最明显，西北内陆区春玉米各关键发育期对最低气温响应最明显。平均气温、日最高气温、日最低气温和土壤温度的升高均会导致春玉米生育期（出苗、开花和成熟）日序提前，发育天数减少，春玉米提前成熟。北方春播区春玉米产量对温度、降水、日照时数响应明显，西北内陆区春玉米产量对温度和潜在蒸散响应明显，大部分地区温度的升高和潜在蒸散的增加会引起玉米产量的显著下降。

关键词: APSIM模型, 北方春玉米, 发育期, 关键气象因子

Abstract: Based on the spring maize field trial data from agro-meteorological experiment stations in the northern China and daily meteorological data, the adaptability of agricultural production system model APSIM in the maize producing areas of the eight provinces in the northern China was analyzed. The critical meteorological response factors for the development stage and yield of spring maize were determined at the regional scale. The growth and yield formation of spring maize in the past 54 years (1961?2014) were simulated based on APSIM. Response laws of spring maize to climate change were explored. The results showed that, (1) the validated APSIM model had better adaptability in the maize producing areas of the eight provinces in the northern China. (2) Air temperature and soil temperature were the most important meteorological response factors for the development stages of spring maize in the eight provinces of northern China. In the northern spring sowing area, the response of the development stage of spring maize to the maximum temperature was the most obvious. However, in the northwestern inland region, the response of the development stage of spring maize to the minimum temperature was the most obvious. The increase in daily average temperature, daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature and daily soil temperature advanced the day of year (DOY) of spring maize growth stage (emergence, flowering and maturation) and decreased the days of development, causing spring maize mature ahead of time. (3) The key meteorological response factors for spring maize yield in the northern spring maize region were temperature, precipitation and sunshine hours. The key meteorological response factors for spring maize yield in the northwestern inland maize region were mainly temperature and potential evapotranspiration. In most areas, the increase in temperature and potential evapotranspiration significantly decreased in spring maize yield.

Key words: APSIM model, Spring maize in the northern China, Development stage, Key meteorological factors

赵俊芳，李宁，候英雨，张祎，徐精文，蒲菲堉，潘志华，郭建平. 基于APSIM模型评估北方八省春玉米生产对气候变化的响应[J]. 中国农业气象, 2018, 39(02): 108-118.

ZHAO Jun-fang, LI Ning, HOU Ying-yu, ZHANG Yi, XU Jing-wen, PU Fei-yu, PAN Zhi-hua, GUO Jian-ping. Evaluation of Response of Spring Maize Production to Climate Change in the Eight Provinces of Northern China Based on APSIM Model[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2018, 39(02): 108-118.

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