气候变化背景下中国主要作物农业气象灾害时空分布特征（Ⅲ）：华北地区夏玉米干旱

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2018.04.001

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于1961-2010年华北地区36个气象站点气象观测资料和1981-2010年23个农业气象观测站夏玉米生育期资料，以作物水分亏缺指数（CWDI）为农业干旱指标，分析华北地区夏玉米各生育阶段干旱的空间分布特征及其年代际演变趋势。结果表明：华北地区夏玉米不同生育阶段以轻旱最明显，播种-拔节阶段，大部分地区轻旱发生频率为5a一遇（20%）至3a一遇（33%）；拔节-抽雄阶段，干旱空间分布特征表现为：轻旱主要集中在河北、河南、山东三省交界区域，发生频率在5a一遇至3a一遇；抽雄-成熟阶段，轻旱集中在河北中部，发生频率在3a一遇以上。全生育期轻旱主要集中在河北大部、北京和天津、河南北部和山东西部，干旱频率在3a一遇以上。1961-2010年，华北夏玉米生长季以播种-拔节阶段和抽雄-成熟阶段发生干旱的年份最多，以20世纪90年代干旱站次比最高；比较过去50a干旱演变趋势，以抽雄-成熟阶段山东东南部和河北东部区域干旱强度增加明显。研究结果说明夏玉米各等级干旱频率以轻旱最为明显，各生育阶段以播种-拔节、抽雄-成熟阶段发生干旱的频率较高；全生育期以轻旱的发生频率较高，干旱中心为河北大部、北京和天津、河南北部和山东西部，发生频率为3a一遇（33.3%）以上。夏玉米生长季全区域干旱主要发生在播种-拔节和抽雄-成熟阶段，该阶段发生干旱的范围最广。此外，不同生育阶段的干旱强度变化表现为河北北部干旱强度增加，河南南部干旱强度减小。

关键词: 农业干旱, 作物水分亏缺指数, 干旱站次比

Abstract: Based on the 1961-2010 daily meteorological data from 36 meteorological stations and the 1981-2010 growth period data of summer maize from 23 agricultural meteorological stations, the spatial distribution and evolution trend of drought for summer maize in different growth period were analyzed by using the crop water deficit index (CWDI). The results showed that light drought was the most frequent during different growth periods of summer maize in North China Plain. During the period from sowing to jointing, the occurrence frequency of light drought ranged from one time in five years (20%) to two times in three years (33%) in most regions; During the period from jointing to tasseling, the light drought was mainly concentrated in the boundary area of Hebei, Henan and Shandong province and the occurrence frequency ranged from one time in five years to two times in three years; During the period from tasseling to maturity, the light drought was mainly concentrated in the central of Hebei and occurred one time in three years. The light drought in whole stages mainly occurred in most regions of Hebei, Beijing, Tianjin, the north of Henan and the west of Shandong, which occurred one time in three years. During 1961-2010, the whole region drought during sowing to jointing and tasseling to maturity were most frequent, the highest ratio of drought occurring stations occurred in 1990s; The drought strength during tasseling to maturity increased obviously in the southeast of Shandong and east of Hebei. Light drought occurred most frequently among the drought frequency at all grades during different growth periods of summer maize. The drought occurrence frequency during the period from sowing to jointing and the period from tasseling to maturity was higher than the other growth periods. The occurrence frequency of light drought was higher during the whole growing period and the center of light drought mainly concentrated in most part of Hebei province, Beijing, Tianjin, Northern Henan province and Western Shandong province with a drought frequency of more than 33%. The whole regional drought mainly occurred from sowing to jointing and tasseling to maturity during which the drought range was wider. Furthermore, the trend of drought strength for different growth stages of summer maize in North China Plain increased in northern Hebei province and decreased in southern Henan province.

Key words: Agricultural drought, Crop water deficit index, Drought occurring stations ratio

万能涵，杨晓光，刘志娟，何斌，孙爽. 气候变化背景下中国主要作物农业气象灾害时空分布特征（Ⅲ）：华北地区夏玉米干旱[J]. 中国农业气象, 2018, 39(04): 209-219.

WAN Neng-han，YANG Xiao-guang，LIU Zhi-juan，HE Bin，SUN Shuang. Temporal and Spatial Variations of Agro-meteorological Disasters of Main Crops in China in a Changing Climate (Ⅲ):Drought of Summer Maize in North China Plain[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2018, 39(04): 209-219.

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