基于气候数据的橡胶树产胶能力评估模型

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2020.02.006

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在自然环境下橡胶树的生产能力除受自身的生物学和土壤特性等限制外，主要受气候因子的影响，橡胶树产量的波动与气候因子的变化密切相关，准确及时评估气候条件对橡胶树产胶状况的影响具有重要意义。根据2000-2015年全国橡胶种植区气候数据和遥感数据，基于气候植被净初级生产力模型（体现潜在生产力）和遥感光能利用率模型（体现实际的生产力），确立了两种模型反演橡胶树净初级生产力之间的转换系数，并在此基础上，建立基于气候数据的橡胶树产胶潜力模型。结果表明：模型实现了依靠气候数据客观、定量评估橡胶树产胶能力的动态变化，也能间接反映气候因子的变化对不同区域橡胶树产胶能力影响的差异，可为橡胶树产量预测、应对气候变化和种植布局调整提供决策依据。

关键词: 橡胶树, 净初级生产力, 产胶能力, 模型

Abstract: The production capacity of rubber trees in natural environment is mainly affected by climate factors besides its biological and soil characteristics. The fluctuation of rubber tree yield is closely related to the change of climate factors. Therefore, it is important to accurately and timely evaluate the influence of climatic conditions on rubber production. Based on the climate data and remote sensing data from the year of 2000 to 2015 in Chinese rubber planting areas, the conversion coefficients between potential productivity of rubber and actual productivity of rubber were established by the net primary productivity model of climatic vegetation model which reflecting potential productivity of rubber and the remote sensing CASA model which reflecting actual productivity of rubber. The potential productivity of rubber model based on climate data was established. The results showed that the potential productivity of rubber model based on climate data not only can objectively and quantitatively evaluate the dynamic change of rubber production capacity based on climatic data, but also can indirectly reflect the difference of the impact of climate factors on rubber production capacity in different regions. It would provide decision-making basis for rubber yield prediction, adaptation strategies and measures to climate change for Chinese rubber planting.

Key words: Rubber, Net Primary Production (NPP), Potential productivity of rubber, Model

刘少军，佟金鹤，张京红，陈小敏，李伟光. 基于气候数据的橡胶树产胶能力评估模型[J]. 中国农业气象, 2020, 41(02): 113-120.

LIU Shao-jun, TONG Jin-he, ZHANG Jing-hong, CHEN Xiao-min, LI Wei-guang. Study on Potential Productivity of Rubber Model Based on Climate Data[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2020, 41(02): 113-120.

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