关键词: 油茶, 气象灾害, 风险区划, 气候变化

Abstract: To investigate the spatial-temporal variability of the meteorological disaster risk to Camellia oleifera in Hunan, the high-resolution historical meteorological data from 1961 to 2020 and the BCC_CSM model forecast data from 2021 to 2050 were used. The comprehensive meteorological disaster index of Camellia oleifera was used to analyze spatial-temporal features, geocentric changes and displacements of meteorological disaster risk in Hunan. The results showed a general decline in the meteorological disaster rating of Camellia oleifera between 1991 to 2020 compared to the 1961 to 1990 period. The proportions of high-level, medium-level, and low-level disaster areas decreased by 10.4, 15.6 and 17.5 percent points, respectively, while the proportion of micro-level disaster areas expanded by 43.5 percent points. The mean altitude at each level was increased. Compared with the period from 1991 to 2020, the area proportions at the medium-level and low-level disaster increased by 46.6 and 20.6 percent points, respectively, while they decreased by 63.4 and 3.8 percent points at the micro-level and high-level disaster in the period from 2021 to 2050. In addition, the mean altitude increased at high-level and micro-level disaster, but decreased at low-level and medium-level. In the first 30 years, micro-level disasters dominated in Hunan. Over the next 30 years, micro-level disasters will shrink to mainly southeastern Hunan, low-level disasters will expand across Hunan, medium-level disasters will shift to the north, and high-level disasters will move to northwest Hunan.

Key words: Camellia oleifera, Meteorological disaster, Risk regionalization, Climate change