关键词: PRECIS, 模式验证, 最高/最低气温, 降水

Abstract: In this paper, 5-year (1979 -1983) ECMWF reanalysis data is employed as quasi-observational boundaries to drive PRECIS to validate PRECIS capacity of simulating present climate over China. It is indicated from the direct day-today comparison of the simulated and observed daily maximum/minimum surface air temperature (Tmax/Tmin) and total downward shortwave surface flux in Beijing station that PRECIS possesses strong capacity to simulate the seasonal cycles of these variables; direct comparison of monthly mean precipitation shows that the simulated seasonal cycle of precipitation fits the observation very well. The statistical analyses for whole country show that PRECIS can simulate Tmax/Tmin very well, though there is an odd zig-zag in the occurrence curve around 0 ℃, the simulated precipitation is normally larger, however, the statistical comparison of simulated and observed daily precipitation indicates that the capacity of PRECIS to simulate rainfall is strong; statistical analysis shows PRECIS overestimates the SW radiation about 22% over the whole country. It is necessary to re-calibrate the outputs of PRECIS when they are used as input data for potential impacts assessment work.

Key words: PRECIS, PRECIS, Model validation, Maximum/Minimum surface air temperature, Precipitation