气候变化背景下川中丘陵区水稻气候生产潜力分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2025.04.004

中国农业气象 ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (4): 471-482.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2025.04.004

气候变化背景下川中丘陵区水稻气候生产潜力分析

黎景锐，罗怀良，刘晓冉

1.中国气象局气候资源经济转化重点开放实验室/重庆市巫溪县气象局, 重庆 405899；2.四川师范大学/西南土地资源评价与监测教育部重点实验室, 成都 610066；3.中国气象局气候资源经济转化重点开放实验室/重庆市气象科学研究所, 重庆 401147

收稿日期:2024-04-26 出版日期:2025-04-20 发布日期:2025-04-14
作者简介:黎景锐，E-mail：1349417738@qq.com
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金项目（17BGL137）；重庆市气象局人才支持项目（RCZC−202410）；重庆市气象局业务技术攻关项目（YWJSGG202123）

Analysis of the Climate Production Potential Characteristics of Rice under the Background of Climate Change in Hilly Area of Central Sichuan

LI Jing-rui, LUO Huai-liang, LIU Xiao-ran

1.China Meteorological Administration Key Open Laboratory of Transforming Climate Resources to Economy/Wuxi County Meteorological Bureau, Chongqing 405899, China; 2.Sichuan Normal University/Key Laboratory of Land Resource Evaluation and Monitoring, Ministry of Education, Chengdu, 610066; 3.China Meteorological Administration Key Open Laboratory of Transforming Climate Resources to Economy/Chongqing Institute of Meteorological Science, Chongqing 401147

Received:2024-04-26 Online:2025-04-20 Published:2025-04-14

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于1970−2023年川中丘陵区逐日气象数据，采用修正的FAO气候生产潜力测算模型，分析川中丘陵区气候变化及水稻气候生产潜力时空动态特征，结合历年水稻生产数据评估气候资源利用情况，并运用敏感性强度，探讨气候变化对气候生产潜力的影响。结果表明：（1）研究期内川中丘陵区热量资源显著上升，降水量年际波动较大，日照资源稀缺，热量、光照资源纬向分布明显，水分资源经向分布明显；（2）川中丘陵区水稻气候生产潜力呈“增−减−增”变化，多年平均值为15198kg·hm⁻²，区内呈东南高西北低分布；（3）气候资源利用率多年均值为50.94%，未来增产潜力较大；（4）水分资源增加对气候生产潜力具有正向影响，热量资源的增加则表现出负影响，未来气候变化背景下，该区显著变暖的趋势将限制气候生产潜力增加，降水量的年际波动较大，会严重影响气候生产潜力的稳定性。未来应适度调整水稻种植结构，合理挖掘气候资源，优化水资源利用，以提高气候资源利用率。

关键词: 气候变化, 水稻, 气候生产潜力, 气候资源利用率, 川中丘陵区

Abstract:

Based on daily meteorological data in the hilly areas of central Sichuan from 1970 to 2023, the modified FAO climate production potential model was used to analyze the temporal and spatial dynamic characteristics of climate change and rice climate production potential. Then, based on the rice production data over the years, the utilization of climate resources was evaluated, and the sensitivity model was used to explore the impact of climate change on climate production potential. The results showed that: (1) during the study period, the heat resources in the hilly area of central Sichuan increased significantly, the interannual fluctuation of precipitation was large, the sunshine resources were scarce, the heat and light resources were latitudinal distribution, and the water resources were meridional distribution. (2) The climatic production potential of rice in the hilly region of central Sichuan province showed a "increase decrease increase" change, and the annual average value was 15198kg·ha⁻¹, which was high in the southeast and low in the northwest. (3) The annual average utilization rate of climate resources was 50.94%, with great potential for yield increase in the future. (4) Sensitivity analysis shows that an increase in water resources had a positive impact on climate production potential, while an increase in heat resources had a negative impact. In the background of future climate change, the significant warming trend in the region will limit the increase in climate production potential, and the interannual fluctuations in precipitation will seriously affect the stability of climate production potential. In the future, the structure of rice cultivation should be moderately adjusted, climate resources should be explored reasonably, and water resource utilization should be optimized to improve the utilization rate of climate resources in the hilly areas of central Sichuan.

Key words: Climate change, Rice, Climate production potential, Climate resource utilization rate, Hilly area of central Sichuan

黎景锐, 罗怀良, 刘晓冉. 气候变化背景下川中丘陵区水稻气候生产潜力分析[J]. 中国农业气象, 2025, 46(4): 471-482.

LI Jing-rui, LUO Huai-liang, LIU Xiao-ran. Analysis of the Climate Production Potential Characteristics of Rice under the Background of Climate Change in Hilly Area of Central Sichuan[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2025, 46(4): 471-482.

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气候变化背景下川中丘陵区水稻气候生产潜力分析

Analysis of the Climate Production Potential Characteristics of Rice under the Background of Climate Change in Hilly Area of Central Sichuan

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