关键词: 杨梅, 气候生产力, 气候变化

Abstract: Based on the meteorological date of the precipitation,temperature,wind speed and sunshine hours from 1984 to 2006 in the eleven cities of Zhejiang Province,the photosynthetic potential productivity,photo-temperature potential productivity and photo-temperature-water climatic potential productivity of the Chinese Bayberry(Myrica rubra(Lour.) Sieb.et Zucc.) under the climate change scenario before and after the doubling of CO2 were simulated.The results showed that the solar radiation and heat resources met the growth requirements of the Chinese Bayberry in Zhejiang Province,while the main restrictive factor to the high yield of bayberry was the water condition.There existed the regional differences for the climatic potential productivity,where the climatic potential productivity in the eastern coastal areas was obviously higher than that in the central and western regions.According to the output produced by the GCM(General Circulation Model),after the doubling of CO2,the average temperature will rise by 2℃,precipitation will remain unchanged,the climatic potential productivity of the Chinese Bayberry in Zhejiang Province except for Lishui District will increase,where it will increase greater in the North than in the South of the Province.

Key words: Chinese Bayberry, Chinese Bayberry, Climatic potential productivity, Climate change