关键词: 气候变化, 早稻产量, 相关分析, 赣州

Abstract: The characteristics of climate change during early rice growth period was analyzed, and correlation analysis between meteorological yield and meteorological factors during early rice growth period was conducted, based on daily temperature, precipitation and sunshine hours data from 1980 to 2009 in Ganzhou. The results showed that there was an increasing trend of early rice yield during last 30 years with linear increase before 1990, but yield growth rate slowed down obviously after late 1990s. Temperature increased at the rate of 0.35℃/10y during last 30 years. Temperature was significantly negatively relationship with rice yield, and climate warming restrained early rice yield increasing. Precipitation decreased at the rate of 157.6mm/10y during last 30 years. Precipitation was obviously positive correlation with rice yield, and precipitation decreasing could be affected early rice yield in future. The sunshine hours change not obviously during last 30 years, but the interannual and interdecadal change a lot. A sunshine hour was a negative correlation with early rice yield, and oversunshine was not benefit to rice yield. Temperature increased obviously during early rice grouting milky stage, the meteorology of high temperature urging maturity was significantly increasing since the late 1990s in particular. Temperature was negatively relationship with early rice yield, and heat damage could be affected yield and quality of early rice.

Key words: font-family: 宋体, mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体, mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt, mso-ansi-language: EN-US, mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN, mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">Climate change, Early rice yield, Correlation analysis, Ganzhou