中国农业气象 ›› 2011, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (3): 444-450.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

新疆阿勒泰地区暖季S干旱指数变化特征分析

庄晓翠,赵正波,杨森,张林梅   

  • 出版日期:2011-08-20 发布日期:2011-11-03
  • 作者简介:庄晓翠(1964-),女,重庆人,本科,高级工程师,从事天气预报和气候变化及其相关的研究工作。
  • 基金资助:

    兰州干旱气象科学研究基金项目(IAM200914);新疆气象局项目“阿勒泰地区气候变化与干旱研究”(201014)

Analysis on S Drought Index Variation in Warm Season for Altay Area in Xinjiang

ZHUANG Xiaocui, ZHAO Zhengbo, YANG Sen, ZHANG Linmei   

  • Online:2011-08-20 Published:2011-11-03

摘要: 运用新疆阿勒泰地区1961-2009年7个测站暖季(4-10月)月降水量与无降水日数定义了S干旱指数,采用MannKendall趋势检验法、Morlet小波变换对该指数进行了分析。结果表明:S指数能较好地反映阿勒泰地区的干旱情况。暖季近49a来极端干旱和极端湿润出现了3a和1a;区域中,东部两站无极端干旱年,其它站有极端干旱年;布尔津和吉木乃站有1a和2a的极端湿润年,其它站无极端湿润年。各季中,春秋季分别出现了2a和1a极端干旱年,无极端湿润年;夏季出现了2a极端干旱年和3a极端湿润年;各区域极端干旱和极端湿润年分布较复杂。暖季20世纪80、90年代以湿润为主,其它时间以干旱为主;春季60年代以干旱为主,其它时间以湿润为主;夏季年代变化基本与暖季一致;秋季60、80年代以湿润为主,其它时间以干旱为主。该地区暖季及各季S指数趋势变化不显著。小波分析表明,S指数存在着明显不同的年代际和年际尺度的周期变化。

关键词: 新疆阿勒泰, 暖季, s干旱指数, 气候变化

Abstract: S drought index was established and analyzed by using MannKendall drift test method and Morlet small wave transformation, based on monthly precipitation and nonprecipitation day′s number from 7 meteorological stations in warm season (April to October) from 1961 to 2009 in Altay, Xinjiang. The results showed that S drought index accorded with drought condition in Altay. There were 3 extreme drought years and 1 extreme wetness year in last 49 years, there were extreme drought years except for 2 east stations. There were 1 extreme wetness year in Burgin and 2 extreme wetness years in Jimunai, and not in other stations. There were 2 extreme drought years in spring and 1 extreme drought year in autumn, but no extreme wetness years. There were 2 extreme drought years and 3 extreme wetness years in summer. Wetness dominated in warm season during 1980s and 1990s, and drought usually in other time; drought dominated in spring during 1960s and wetness usually in other time. Decadal change in summer was similar to warm season, wetness dominated during 1960s and 1980s, and drought usually in other time. Small wave analysis results indicated that S drought index changed as decadal and annual cycle.

Key words: font-size: 10.5pt, mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体, mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt, mso-ansi-language: EN-US, mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN, mso-bidi-language: AR-SA" lang="EN-US">Altay in Xinjiang, Warm season, S drought index, Climate change