关键词: 气候变化情景, 高温热害, 水稻, 作物模型, 气候模式

Abstract: Using the meteorological, soil, rice yield and field management data of Jiangsu province as the input data of CERESRice model, the genotype parameters of rice cultivar Xudao no 2 were obtained by calibration and validation processes. Then combined the CERESRice model with the multi model dataset of CMIP3 under the World Climate Research Programmer (WCRP), the impact of the heat injury on the rice yield was simulated by the different high temperature intensity and different high temperature  duration under the 2020s (2011-2040) of A2 and A1B climate change scenarios. The results showed that the CERES Rice model simulated better in Jiangsu province. Heat injury from the booting to heading stage caused a decline for rice production in Jiangsu province under the A2 and A1B climate change scenarios, and the decline rate of rice production reached 17%. When the high temperature intensity was constant, the longer the high temperature duration was, the more seriously rice yield decreased. So as the high temperature duration was constant, the more severe high temperature was, the more serious the heat injury on the rice yield was. So, the rice yield will be decreased by the heat injury from the booting to heading stage under the climate change scenarios. This provides a theoretical support for the reasonable of the disaster prevention and mitigation measures rice production in Jiangsu province.

Key words: Climate change scenarios, Heat injury, Rice, Crop mode, Climate model