1961-2013年黄淮海平原降蒸差的时空变化特征

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.03.002

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于黄淮海平原41个气象站点1961-2013年逐日气象数据，利用Penman Monteith公式计算潜在蒸散量，采用降水量与潜在蒸散量差值即降蒸差表征区域水分盈亏状况，结合ArcGIS地统计分析、趋势分析及Morlet小波分析，探讨黄淮海平原各季降蒸差的时空变化特征。结果表明：黄淮海平原降蒸差呈南北差异分布，在-650～100mm区间变化，南部高于北部。夏季降蒸差最高，秋、冬季次之，春季水分亏缺最严重，多年平均亏缺量为210.61mm，远高于其它季节。站点季节降蒸差的年际变化总体呈上升趋势。各农业亚区蒸散量差异不大，降蒸差差异主要由降水导致，鲁西平原鲁中丘陵水浇地旱地二熟区（Ⅵ区）降蒸差最高，为-21.63mm，海河低平原缺水水浇地二熟兼旱地一熟区（Ⅲ区）最低，为-560.42mm。6个亚区春季水分亏缺量分别占区域年总亏缺量的56.4%、51.7%、40.6%、59.7%、59.3%和66.1%。周期分析表明，黄淮海平原Ⅰ-Ⅳ各农业亚区春季降蒸差变化主周期皆为28a，黄淮平原南阳盆地水浇地旱地二熟区和江淮平原丘陵麦稻两熟区（Ⅴ和Ⅵ区）为10a，未来一段时间春季降蒸差将处于偏低期。黄淮海平原水分亏缺量季节性差异较大，干旱发生风险较高，尤以春旱发生频率较高。

关键词: 降蒸差, 潜在蒸散, 时空变化, 农业亚区, 黄淮海平原

Abstract: Water shortage is recognized as the most serious problem for agriculture production in Huang Huai Hai plain （3H plain） and the changing characteristics for water resources in context of climate change remains unknown yet. Based on measured meteorological data obtained from 41 stations located in 3H plain，potential evapotranspiration was calculated by applying PenmanMonteith equation，and water deficit was described as the difference of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration at the same period. Finally，the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of water deficit in four seasons over 3H plain were analyzed by using Kendall Theil robust line method，MannKendall trend test and Morlet wavelet function. Results showed that multiyear average water deficit was negative in most part of 3H plain and varied between 650mm and 100mm with the spatial variation pattern of decreasing gradually from south to north. Among four seasons，spring was presented as the most serious water situation with the shortage of 21061mm in multi year average，which was higher than any other seasons. Trend analysis of seasonal multi year average water deficit among 41 stations generally shown an upward trend except in autumn where only stations surrounding Jing Jin Ji district increased. Annual water deficit variation among 6 sub regions was-391.45，-510.11，-560.42，-427.21，-284.19 and-21.63mm in respectively and this variation was mainly induced by precipitation. For seasonal difference in 6 subregions， spring amounts for the highest water shortage period which occupied annual water shortage at 56.4%， 51.7%， 40.6%，59.7%，59.3% and 66.1%， respectively. Spring water deficit showed higher period，lower period alternately with the main period of 28 years for these six regions，10 years for region V and VI. The seasonal and spatial difference of water deficit in 3H plain indicated a high drought risks with spatio temporal variability，especially in spring season. Thus，effective climate changing adoption needs water resources be operated rationally and agriculture irrigation arrangements with seasonal．

Key words: Water deficit, Potential evapotranspiration, Spatio temporal pattern, Sub regions；Huang Huai Hai plain

李翔翔，居辉，严昌荣，刘勤，李迎春. 1961-2013年黄淮海平原降蒸差的时空变化特征[J]. 中国农业气象, 2015, 36(03): 254-262.

LI Xiang xiang，JU Hui，YAN Chang rong，LIU Qin，LI Ying chun. Spatio temporal Variability of Water Deficit in HuangHuaiHai Plain During 1961-2013[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2015, 36(03): 254-262.

参考文献

[1]IPCC.Climate change 2013：the physical science basis[M].Cambridge：Cambridge University Press，2013.
[2]WMO.2001-2010 a decade of climate extremes[R].http：//library.wmo.int/pmb_ged /wmo_1103_en. pdf，2013.
[3]金龙，罗莹.淮北平原水分盈亏量的综合研究[J].气象科学，1992，12（1）：24-31.
Jin L，Luo Y.A comprehensive study on the difference between precipitation and evaporation over the northern plain of Huai River[J].Journal of the Meteorological Sciences，1992，12(1)：24-31.(in Chinese)
[4]陆渝蓉，高国栋，李怀瑾.关于我国干湿状况的研究[J].南京大学学报（自然科学版），1979，(1)：125-138.
Lu Y R，Gao G D，LI H J.On the dry and wet condition of China[J].Journal of Nanjing University(Nature Science)，1979，(1)：125-138.(in Chinese)
[5]史建国，严昌荣，何文清，等.黄河流域水分盈亏时空格局变化研究[J].自然资源学报，2008，23（1）：113-119.
Shi J G，Yan C R，He W Q，et al. Study on spatial and temporal variation of water surplus and deficiency in yellow river basin[J].Journal of Natural Resource, 2008,23(1)：113-119.(in Chinese)
[6]邵晓梅，许月卿，严昌荣.黄河流域气候水分盈亏时空格局分析[J].气候与环境研究，2007，12（1）：74-80.
Shao X M，Xu Y Q，Yan C R.Analysis on the spatial and temporal structure of climactic water deficit in the Yellow River basin[J].Climatic and Environmental Research，2007，12(1)：74-80.(in Chinese)
[7]陶毓汾，王立祥，韩仕峰，等.中国北方旱农地区水分生产潜力及开发[M].北京：气象出版社，1993.
Tao Y F，Wang L X，Han S F，et al.Water potential productivity and its exploitation in dry land farming region of North China[J].Beijing：China Meteorological Press，1993.(in Chinese)
[8]王晓东，马晓群，许莹，等.淮河流域主要农作物全生育期水分盈亏时空变化分析[J].资源科学，2013，35（3）：665-672.
Wang X D，Ma X Q，Xu Y，et al.Temporal analysis of the crop water surplus deficit index for the whole growth period in the Huaihe basin[J].Resource Science，2013，35(3)：665-672.(in Chinese)
[9]曾丽红，宋开山，张柏.1951-2008年东北地区水分盈亏量时空格局[J].自然资源学报，2011，26（5）：858-870.
Zeng L H，Song K S，Zhang B.Spatial and temporal structure of water deficit over Northeast China during the period of 1951-2008[J].Journal of Natural Resource，2011，26(5)：858-870.(in Chinese)
[10]姚晓军，张晓，孙美平，等.1960-2010年中国西北地区水分盈亏量时空特征[J].地理研究，2013，32（4）：607-616.
Yao X J，Zhang X，Sun M P，et al. Spatial-temporal characteristics of water deficit in Northwest China from 1960 to 2010[J].Geographical Research，2013，32(4)：607-616.(in Chinese)
[11]姚玉龙，刘普幸，卓玛兰草.51a来甘肃省水分盈亏量的时空变化特征[J].干旱区研究,2014,31(2)：201-208.
Yao Y L，Liu P X，Zhuoma L C. Spatiotemporal change of water budget in Gansu Province in recent 51 years[J].Arid Zone Research，2014，31(2)：201-208.(in Chinese)
[12]黄让堂.论我国降水丰度和适度[J].自然资源学报，1990，5（1）：84-90.
Huang R T.On the abundance and fitness of precipitation in China[J].Journal of Natural Resources，1990，5(1)：84-90.(in Chinese)
[13]程琨，潘根兴，邹建文，等.1949-2006年间中国粮食生产的气候变化影响风险评价[J].南京农业大学学报，2011，34（3）：83-88.
Cheng K，Pan G X，Zou J W，et al.Risk assessment of China’s cereals production against climate change over 1949-2006[J].Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University，2011，34(3)：83-88.(in Chinese)
[14]谭方颖，王建林，宋迎波，等.华北平原近45年农业气候资源变化特征分析[J].中国农业气象，2009，30(1)：19-24.
Tan F Y，Wang J L，Song Y B，et al.Analysis of changing characteristics of agricultural climate resources over last 45 years in North China Plain[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology，2009，30(1)：19-24.(in Chinese)
[15]Yang J Y，Liu Q，Mei X R，et al.Spatiotemporal characteristics of reference evapotranspiration and its sensitivity coefficients to climate factors in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China[J].Journal of Integrative Agriculture，2013，12(12)：2280-2291.
[16]徐建文，居辉，刘勤，等.黄淮海地区干旱变化特征及其对气候变化的响应[J].生态学报，2014，34(2)：460-470.
Xu J W，Ju H，Liu Q，et al.Variation of drought and regional response to climate change in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica，2014，34(2)：460-470.(in Chinese)
[17]李又君，吕博，安丽华，等.鲁西气候变化及其对地表水分盈亏的影响[J].干旱气象，2012，30（3）：431-436.
Li Y J，Lv B，An L H，et al.Climate change and its effect on gain or loss of surface water in Western Shandong[J].Journal of Arid Meteorology,2012,30(3)：431-436.(in Chinese)
[18]莫兴国，刘苏峡，林忠辉，等.华北平原蒸散和GPP格局及其对气候波动的响应[J].地理学报，2011，66（5）：589-598.
Mo X G，Liu S X，Lin Z H，et al.Patterns of evapotranspiration and GPP and their responses to climate variations over the North China Plain[J].Acta Geographica Sinica，2011，66(5)：589-598.(in Chinese)
[19]龚宇，石志增，花家嘉，等.唐山地区水资源的气候特征分析[J].中国农业气象，2009，30（4）：509-514.
Gong Y，Shi Z Z，Hua J J，et al. Climatic Characteristics affecting water resources in Tangshan Region[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology，2009，30(4)：509-514.(in Chinese)
[20]胡亚南，李阔，许吟隆.1951-2010年华北平原农业气象灾害特征分析及粮食减产风险评估[J].中国农业气象，2013，34(2)：197-203.
Hu Y N，Li K，Xu Y L.Characteristic analysis of agricultural meteorological disasters and risk assessment of the crop loss in North China Plain during 1951 -2010[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology，2013，34(2)：197-203.(in Chinese)
[21]徐建文.黄淮海平原干旱对冬小麦产量的潜在影响模拟研究[D].北京：中国农业科学院，2014.
Xu J W. Potential effects of drought on winter wheat yield based on DSSAT model over Huang-Huai-Hai Plain[D].Beijing：Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science Dissertation，2014.(in Chinese)
[22]杨建莹.基于SEBAL模型的黄淮海冬小麦和夏玉米水分生产力研究[D].北京：中国农业科学院，2014.
Yang J Y.Study on water productivity of winter wheat and summer maize based on SEBAL model in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain，China[D].Beijing：Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science Dissertation，2014.(in Chinese)
[23]刘巽浩，陈阜.中国农作制[M].北京：中国农业出版社，2003：58-72.
Liu X H，Chen F.Chinese farming system[M].Beijing：Chinese Agricultural Press，2003：58-72.(in Chinese)
[24]高晓容，王春乙，张继权，等.近50年东北玉米生育阶段需水量及旱涝时空变化[J].农业工程学报，2012，28（12）：101-109.
Gao X R，Wang C Y，Zhang J Q，et al.Crop water requirement and temporal-spatial variation of drought and flood disaster during growth stages for maize in Northeast during past 50 years[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering，2012，28(12)：101-109.(in Chinese)
[25]Allen R G，Pereira L S，Raes D，et al.Crop evapotranspiration-Guidelines for computing crop water requirements[R].Rome：FAO，1998.
[26]Stahl K，Hisdal H，Hannaford J，et al. Stream flow trends in Europe：evidence from a dataset of near-natural catchments[J].Hydrology and Earth System Sciences，2010，14(12)：2367-2382.
[27]梁宏，王培娟，章建成，等.1960-2011年东北地区热量资源时空变化特征[J].自然资源学报，2014，29（3）：466-479.
Liang H，Wang P J，Zhang J C，et al.Spatial and temporal distribution of variation in heat resource over Northeast China during the period from 1960 to 2011[J].Journal of Natural Resources，2014，29(3)：466-479.(in Chinese)
[28]庄晓翠，赵正波，杨森，等.新疆阿勒泰地区暖季S干旱指数变化特征分析[J].中国农业气象，2011，32(3)：444-450.
Zhuang X C，Zhao Z B，Yang S，et al.Analysis on S drought index variation in warm season for Altay area in Xinjiang[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology，2011，32(3)：444-450.(in Chinese)
[29]肖金香，穆彪，胡飞.农业气象学[M].北京：高等教育出版社，2009：75-78.
Xiao J X，Mu B，Hu F.Agricultural meteorology[M]. Beijing：Higher Education Press，2009：75-78.(in Chinese)
[30]胡玮，严昌荣，李迎春，等.冀京津冬小麦灌溉需水量时空变化特征[J].中国农业气象，2013，34(6)：648-654.
Hu W，Yan C R，Li Y C，et al.Spatial and temporal variation of irrigation water requirement for winter wheat in Jijingjin region[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology，2013，34(6)：648-654.(in Chinese)