气候变暖对新疆核桃种植气候适宜性的影响

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2018.04.006

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于新疆102个气象台站1961-2015年逐日平均气温、最低气温、最高气温资料，采用线性趋势分析、累积距平、t检验以及ArcGIS的空间插值技术，对影响新疆核桃种植的关键气候因子（≥10℃积温、最低气温≤-25℃日数、最高气温≥40℃日数、终霜冻日早于≥10℃初日天数）的时空变化特征进行分析的基础上，结合核桃种植气候适宜性区划指标，研究了气候变化对新疆核桃种植气候适宜性及其分布的影响。结果表明：新疆≥10℃积温的空间分布总体呈现“南疆多，北疆少；平原和盆地多，山区少”的格局，最低气温≤-25℃日数有“南疆少，北疆多；平原和盆地少，山区多”的特点，夏季最高气温≥40℃日数为“东部多，西部少；平原和盆地多，山区少”的特点；终霜冻日早于≥10℃初日的天数呈现“西部多，东部少；山区多，平原和盆地少”的格局。在上述气候要素空间分异的综合作用下，新疆核桃种植的气候适宜区主要在塔里木盆地西部平原；次适宜区在塔里木盆地大部和吐哈盆地南部；北疆大部，阿尔泰山、天山和昆仑山区以及吐哈盆地、塔里木盆地东部为核桃不适宜种植区。在气候变暖背景下，近55a新疆≥10℃积温、最高气温≥40℃日数和终霜冻日早于≥10℃初日的天数分别以64.7℃·d·10a-1、0.48d·10a-1、0.120d·10a-1的倾向率呈显著（P＜0.05）增多趋势，冬季日最低气温≤-25℃日数以-0.980d·10a-1的倾向率呈极显著（P＜0.001）减少趋势。上述各要素分别于1986年和1997年发生了突变，受其影响，1997年后较其之前，新疆核桃种植的气候适宜区和次适宜区明显扩大，而不适宜区明显减小，气候变暖对新疆核桃种植总体趋于有利。

关键词: 气候变化, ≥10℃积温, 最低气温≤?25℃日数, 最高气温≥40℃日数, 霜冻, 核桃种植, 气候适宜性, 新疆

Abstract:

Based on the data of daily mean temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature from 102 meteorological stations in Xinjiang during 1961-2015, the fundamental spatial-temporal change characteristic of key climatic factors affecting walnut planting, such as ≥10℃ accumulated temperature(∑Tmen≥10℃), days of minimum temperature was lower than -25℃ (DTmin≤-25℃), days of the daily maximum temperature was over 40℃(DTmax≥40℃) and the days which was the last frost date earlier than the first date of daily mean temperature≥10℃(DFTmen≥10℃-LF), were analyzed by using the methods of linear regression, accumulative anomaly, T-test and mixed spatial interpolation technology based on ArcGIS. And the effect of above climatic factors change on walnut-planting climatic suitability, and the distributed areas of suitable, sub-suitable and unsuitable to walnut-planting were studied by combining with the climatic suitability zoning index of walnut planting. The main results showed that spatial distribution of above climatic factors had very obvious difference from place to place in Xinjiang, generally, ∑Tmen≥10℃ were more in south than in north, in plain and basin than in mountain regions. DTmin≤-25℃ were more in north and mountain regions than in south, plain and basin. DTmax≥40℃ were more in east, plain and basin than in west and mountain regions. DFTmen≥10℃-LF were more in west and mountain regions than in east, plain and basin. Under the comprehensive influence of above climatic factors, the climate suitable areas for walnut planting were mainly in the west of Tarim basin, sub-suitable areas were in most of Tarim basin and the south of Tuha basin. Most of the northern Xinjiang, Altai mountain, Tianshan mountain and Kunlun mountain, and the Tuha basin, eastern part of the Tarim basin were not suitable for walnut-planting. In the background of global warming, ∑Tmen≥10℃, DTmax≥40℃ and DFTmen≥10℃?LF had been significantly（P＜0.05）increased? with the rate of 64.7℃·d·10y-1，0.48d·10y-1 and 0.120d·10y-1, respectively, DTmin≤-25℃ presented significantly（P＜0.001）decreasing trend with the rate of -0.980d·10y-1, and above climatic factors had mutation in 1986 or 1997 respectively, climate warming was obvious in recent 55 years in Xinjiang. By the affected of climate warming, the suitable areas and sub-suitable areas for walnut-planting were increased, but unsuitable areas were decreased after 1997 than before in Xinjiang region, generally, climate warming was beneficial to walnut planting in Xinjiang during 1961-2015.

Key words: Climate change, ≥10℃ accumulated temperature, Days of minimum temperature is lower than ?25℃, Days of maximum temperature is over than 40℃, Days of last frost date earlier than the first date of daily mean temperature≥10℃, Walnut-planting, Climatic suitability, Xinjiang region

普宗朝，张山清. 气候变暖对新疆核桃种植气候适宜性的影响[J]. 中国农业气象, 2018, 39(04): 267-279.

PU Zong-chao，ZHANG Shan-qing. Impact of Climate Change on Walnut-Planting Climatic Suitability in Xinjiang[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2018, 39(04): 267-279.

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