未来升温1.5℃与2.0℃背景下中国玉米产量变化趋势评估

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2018.12.001

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于ISI-MIP推荐的5个气候模式在4个RCP情景下的模拟结果，筛选21世纪末全球升温最接近1.5℃和2.0℃的气候数据，运用作物模型DSSAT，模拟升温1.5℃和2.0℃背景下中国玉米产量相对于基准时段1985-2006年的变化，揭示了1.5℃与2.0℃升温背景下中国玉米产量变化的空间分布。结果表明：升温2.0℃背景下玉米减产风险明显高于升温1.5℃，未来升温2.0℃背景下中国玉米减产面积比升温1.5℃背景下多6.2%，升温1.5℃和2.0℃背景下中国玉米平均减产幅度分别为3.7%和11.5%；从空间分布来看，升温1.5℃与2.0℃背景下未来中国玉米产量变化在区域分布上大致相似，但未来玉米增产和减产的面积和幅度不尽相同，在北方与西南玉米种植区都有一定的增产区域，其它区域大多以减产为主，其中西北部玉米种植区减幅最大；1.5℃升温背景下北方大部分地区气候条件对玉米生长有利，2.0℃升温背景下北方地区玉米减产也不明显，说明从近期到未来一段时间内，将全球升温控制在1.5℃以内，北方地区玉米仍具有一定增产潜力。

关键词: RCP情景, 升温1.5℃, 升温2.0℃, 玉米产量, 作物模型, 巴黎协定

Abstract:

Based on the simulation results from 5 climate models recommended by ISI-MIP under 4 RCP scenarios, the future climate situations were selected which are the approximate scenarios with global warming by 1.5℃ and 2.0℃. Applying DSSAT, the per unit yield changes of maize in China under global warming by 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ were analyzed and the spatial distributions of changes of maize yield were revealed relative to the baseline from 1985 to 2006. The results showed that, the yield reduction area under global warming by 2.0℃ was 6.2% more than that under global warming by 1.5℃; the ratios of yield reduction were separately 3.7% and 11.5% under global warming by 1.5℃ and 2.0℃; the risk of global warming by 2.0℃ was obviously higher than 1.5℃. The spatial distributions of yield changes were similar between 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ global warming, under which the area and magnitude of yield reduction were different. There were some regions with yield increasing under global warming by 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ in maize planting area of North China and Southwest China; most of the other regions in China would be mainly suffering to yield reduction; the largest reduction of maize yield would break out in Northwest China. Especially it was advantageous under global warming by 1.5℃ for maize production in North China; there was no distinct negative effect under global warming by 2.0℃ for maize production in North China. In other words, in the near future, there would be yield increasing potential for maize in North China with global warming.

Key words: RCP scenarios, Global warming by 1.5℃, Global warming by 2.0℃, Maize yield, Crop models, Paris Agreement

李阔，熊伟，潘婕，林而达，李迎春，韩雪. 未来升温1.5℃与2.0℃背景下中国玉米产量变化趋势评估[J]. 中国农业气象, 2018, 39(12): 765-777.

LI Kuo, XIONG Wei, PAN Jie, LIN Er-da, LI Ying-chun, HAN Xue. Trend Evaluation on Changes of Maize Yield in China under Global Warming by 1.5℃ and 2.0℃[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2018, 39(12): 765-777.

参考文献

[1] IPCC.Climate change 2013:the physical science base[M]. Cambridge,UK:Cambridge University Press,2013. [2] IPCC.Climate change 2014:impacts,adaptation,and vulnerabi- lity[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2014. [3] 巢清尘,张永香,高翔,等.巴黎协定-全球气候治理的新起点[J].气候变化研究进展,2016,12(1):61-67. Chao Q C,Zhang Y X,Gao X,et al.Paris agreement:a new start for global governance on climate[J].Advances in Climate Change Research,2016,12(1):61-67.(in Chinese) [4] Schleussner C F,Lissner T K,Fischer E M,et al.Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming:the case of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃[J].Earth System Dynamics,2016,7(2):327-351. [5] Mitchell D,James R,Forster P M,et al.Realizing the impacts of a 1.5℃ warmer world[J].Nature Climate Change,2016, 6(8): 735-737. [6] Koutroulis A G,Grillakis M G,Daliakopoulos I N,et al.Cross sectoral impacts on water availability at +2℃ and +3℃ for east Mediterranean island states:the case of Crete[J].Journal of Hydrology,2016,532:16-28. [7] King A D,Karoly D J,Henley B J.Australian climate extremes at 1.5℃ and 2℃ of global warming[J].Nature Climate Change,2017,7:412-416. [8] Ranger N Gohar L K Lowe J A et al.Is it possible to limit global warming to no more than 1.5℃[J].Climatic Change, 2012,111(3-4):973-981. [9] Knutti R,Rogelj J,Sedlá?ek J,et al.A scientific critique of the two-degree climate change target[J].Nature Geoscience, 2015, 9(1):1-6. [10] Schaeffer M,Hare W,Rahmstorf S,et al.Long-term sea-level rise implied by 1.5℃ and 2℃ warming levels[J].Nature Climate Change,2012,2(2):867-870. [11] 翟盘茂,余荣,周佰铨,等.1.5℃增暖对全球和区域影响的研究进展[J].气候变化研究进展,2017,13(5):465-472. Zhai P M,Yu R,Zhou B Q,et al.Research progress in impact of 1.5℃ global warming on global and regional scales[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research,2017,13(5):465- 472. (in Chinese) [12] 李红梅,李林.2℃全球变暖背景下青藏高原平均气候和极端气候事件变化[J].气候变化研究进展,2015,11(3): 157- 164. Li H M,Li L.Mean and extreme climate change on Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau with 2℃ global warming[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research,2015, 11(3):157- 164. (in Chinese) [13] Chen J,Gao C,Zeng X F,et al.Assessing changes of river discharge under global warming of 1.5℃ and 2℃ in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin:approach by using multiple-GCMs and hydrological models[J].Quaternary International,2017,453(25): 1-11. [14] 徐影,周波涛,吴婕,等.1.5～4℃升温阈值下亚洲地区气候变化预估[J].气候变化研究进展,2017,13(4):306-315. Xu Y,Zhou B T,Wu J,et al.Asian climate change in response to four global warming targets[J].Advances in Climate Change Research,2017,13(4):306-315.(in Chinese) [15] 姜大膀,富源海.2℃全球变暖背景下中国未来气候变化预估[J].大气科学,2012,36(2):234-246. Jiang D B,Fu Y H.Climate change over China with a 2℃ global warming[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2012,36(2):234-246.(in Chinese) [16] 姜大膀,张颖,孙建奇.中国地区1-3℃变暖的集合预估分析[J].科学通报,2009,54(24):3870-3877. Jiang D B,Zhang Y,Sun J Q.Ensemble projection of 1-3℃ warming in China[J].Chinese Sci Bull,2009,54(24): 3870- 3877.(in Chinese) [17] 陈晓晨,徐影,姚遥.不同升温阈值下中国地区极端气候事件变化预估[J].大气科学,2015,39(6):1123-1135. Chen X C,Xu Y,Yao Y.Changes in climate extremes over China in a 2.0℃,3℃ and 4℃ warmer world[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2015,39(6):1123-1135.(in Chinese) [18] 郎咸梅,隋月.全球变暖2℃情景下中国平均气候和极端气候事件变化预估[J].科学通报,2013,58:734-742. Lang X M,Sui Y.Changes in mean and extreme climates over China with a 2℃ global warming[J].Chin Sci Bull,2013,58:734-742.(in Chinese) [19] 张莉,丁一汇,吴统文,等.CMIP5模式对21世纪全球和中国年平均地表气温变化和2℃升温阈值的预估[J].气象学报, 2013,71(6):1047-1060. Zhang L,Ding Y H,Wu T W,et al.The 21st century annual mean surface air temperature change and the 2℃ warming threshold over the globe and China as projected by the CMIP5 models[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2013,71(6): 1047-1060.(in Chinese) [20] Guo X,Huang J,Luo Y,et al.Projection of precipitation extremes for eight global warming targets by 17 CMIP5 models[J].Natural Hazards,2016,84(3):2299-2319. [21] Guo X,Huang J,Luo Y,et. al.Projection of heat waves over China for eight different global warming targets using 12 CMIP5 models[J].Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2017,128(3):507-522. [22] 王安乾,苏布达,王艳君,等.全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下中国极端低温事件变化与耕地暴露度研究[J].气象学报,2017,(3):415-428. Wang A Q,Su B D,Wang Y J,et al.Variation of the extreme low-temperature events and farmland exposure under global warming of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2017,(3):415-428.(in Chinese) [23] Huang J,Yu H,Guan X,et al.Accelerated dryland expansion under climate change[J].Nature Climate Change,2016,6(2): 166-171. [24] Warszawski L,Frieler K,Huber V,et al.The inter-sectoral impact model intercomparison project (ISI-MIP):project framework[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2014,111(9): 3228-3232. [25] 熊伟,林而达,杨婕,等.作物模型区域应用两种参数校准方法的比较[J].生态学报,2008,28(5):2140-2147. Xiong W,Lin E D,Yang J,et al.Comparion of two calibration approaches for regional simulation of crop model[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2008,28(5):2140-2147.(in Chinese) [26] 曹阳.1961-2010年潜在干旱对中国玉米、小麦产量影响的模拟[D].北京:中国农业科学院,2014:25-36. Cao Y.Impacts of potential drought on maize and wheat in China from 1961 to 2010[D].Beijing:CAAS,2014:25-36.(in Chinese) [27] 赵俊芳,李宁,侯英雨,等.基于APSIM模型评估北方八省春玉米生产对气候变化的响应[J].中国农业气象,2018,39(2): 108-118. Zhao J F,Li N,Hou Y Y,et al.Evaluation of response of Spring maize production to climate change in the eight provinces of Northern China based on APSIM model[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2018,39(2):108-118.(in Chinese) [28] 刘欢,熊伟,李迎春,等.气候变化对中国轮作系统影响的研究进展[J].中国农业气象,2017,38(10):613-631. Liu H,Xiong W,Li Y C,et al.Advances of impacts and adaptation of climate change on crop rotations in China[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2017,38 (10):613-631. (in Chinese) [29] Taylor K E,Stouffer B J,Meehl G A.An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2012,93:485-498. [30] Zhou B T,Wen H Q Z,Xu Y,et al.Projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in China by the CMIP5 multimodel ensembles[J].Journal of Climate,2014, 27:6591-6611. [31] Alfieri L,Bisselink B,Dottori F,et al.Global projections of river flood risk in a warmer world[J].Earths Future, 2016, 5(2):171-182. [32] Chen X L,Zhou T.Uncertainty in crossing time of 2℃ warming threshold over China[J].Science Bulletin,2016,61 (18):1451-1459. [33] Knutti R,Rogelj J,Sedlá?ek J,et al.A scientific critique of the two-degree climate change target[J].Nature Geoscience, 2015,9(1):1-6. [34] Rogelj J,Luderer G,Pietzcker R C,et al.Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5℃[J].Nature Climate Change,2015,5(6):519-527. [35] Friedlingstein P,Andrew R M,Rogelj J,et al.Persistent growth of CO2 emissions and implications for reaching climate targets[J].Nature Geoscience,2014,7(10):709-715. [36] Azar C,Johansson D J A,Mattsson N.Meeting global temperature targets the role of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage[J].Environmental Research Letters,2013, 8(3):1345-1346. [37] Mitchell D,Achutara K,Allen M,et al.Half a degree additional warming,prognosis and projected impacts(HAP- PI): background and experimental design[J]. Geoscientific Model Development,2017,10(2):571-583.