Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology ›› 2013, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (05): 501-511.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2013.05.001

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Variations of Temperature and Precipitation during Growing Season of Three Major Crops in Inner Mongolia under Numerical Simulation Scenarios in the Coming 30 Years

GAO Tao,YAN Wei,WU Lan,CHEN Yan cai   

  1. 1Inner Mongolia Meteorological Institute, Hohhot010051,China;2Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,Hohhot010018;3Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Bureau of Inner Mongolia,Hohhot010010
  • Received:2013-03-22 Online:2013-10-20 Published:2014-01-03

Abstract: In order to predict the climate condition of major cultivating areas in Inner Mongolia in the coming 30 years,the PRECIS (green house emission scenario A1B, A2 and B2) developed in Hadley Center in UK,and the CMIP5 multi model dataset provided by China National Climate Center were employed to simulate the temperature and precipitation for 80 years (1961-2040).The simulated crop growing season precipitation and accumulated temperature were calculated by using the simulated monthly precipitation and temperature after the longitude latitude grid points that belong to cultivating areas of 10 leagues or cities in Inner Mongolia.In addition,simulating deviations for the leagues or cities were confirmed by comparing the simulated outputs with the observed records last 50 years (1961-2010).Then,deviations of the simulated precipitation and temperature of the coming 30 years (2011-2040) have been corrected by using the difference between observations and simulations.The corrected simulating results indicated that variation of the growing season precipitation did not display significant trends for those three crops in the coming 30 years,whereas the accumulated temperatures for difference crops could present dissimilar increasing tendency.

Key words: Inner Mongolia cultivating areas, Climate simulation, Deviation correcting, Temperature and precipitation condition of growing season, Climate prediction