Abstract: Based on the physiological development time which influenced by the temperature,sunlight and soil moisture,and meteorological and crop data at Hetao irrigation area last 20 years,a simulation model for maize physiological developmental stage was established.The physiological development stage of maize was calculated by using of the simulation model in Bayannaoer and Tumotezuoqi,the simulation results of 10 years were calculated and checked out by the root mean square error(RMSE),Paired-Samples T Test and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).The results showed that the simulation model was more accurate during vegetation growth stage and whole growth period,and it also passed the inspection during reproductive growth stage,the correlation coefficient between the simulated results and observed values was 0.753,0.786 and 0.996 in the seeding stage,the 7-leaf stage and whole growth period respectivelyMoreover,the root mean square error (RMSE) between the simulated results and observed values was 2.324d,2.846d and 3.771d respectively.It showed that comprehensive considering the meteorological conditions of temperature,sunlight and soil moisture was helpful for the simulation.This simulation model was relatively robust on mechanistic explanation,and could be applied to simulate and to predict the physiological development time of maize in Hetao irrigation area,it also could be contribute to prediction of maize yield.

Key words: Hetao irrigation area, Maize, Climate suitability, Physiological development time, Simulation model of development stage