Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology ›› 2014, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (02): 128-134.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2014.02.002

• 论文 • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Study on Above 10℃ Thermal Resources Projected Under Climate Scenario in 21stCentury in Guizhou Province

MA Jianyong,GU Xiaoping,LIAO Liufeng   

  1. 1Guizhou Institute of Mountainous Environment and Climate/Guizhou Key Laboratory of Mountainous Climate and Resources,Guiyang550002,China;2State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology,Beijing Normal University,Beijing100875
  • Received:2013-05-29 Online:2014-04-20 Published:2015-02-11

Abstract: The daily mean temperature from regional climate model system PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate for Impacts Studies) under SRES A1B scenario was calculated to project the tendency of agricultural thermal resources in Guizhou province during 2011-2100The results showed that under A1B scenario,the beginning date steadily above 10℃ would advance significantly,while the ending date might delay also obviously,and an evident increment would be performed both in the lasting days and accumulated temperature Meanwhile,the increasing trend of agricultural thermal resources in the east might be higher than in the west during 2011-2100Compared with baseline,in next 90 years,the biggest advancement of beginning date steadily above 10℃ might be showed in Bijie,Liupanshui and southwest Guizhou region (16-18d),and the ending date of most areas would delay 14-19d,in terms of lasting days,the increment of 31-38d and 23-30d might be represented in the west and east,respectively Accumulated temperature in Guizhou province would also be expected to elevate 878-1162℃·d As far as contour change be concerned,4000℃·d  contour might move eastward from Renhuai-Kaiyang-Longli-Puding-Jin′an-Xingyi line in baseline to high altitude region as Weining,Hezhang in 2080s period,while 6000℃·d contour would be expected to gradually advance to the central Guizhou from northern and southern directions,in 2080s period,the northern contour might shift to Renhuai-Zunyi -Fenggang-Yanhe line,and southern contour might move to An′long-Liuzhi-Huishui-Weng′an-Leishan-Sansui  Tongren line

Key words: PRECIS, Guizhou province, ≥10℃ thermal resources, SRES A1B, Future