Potential Variation of Accumulated Temperature Zone in Heilongjiang Province Under SRES A2/B2 Scenarios

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2014.05.001

Abstract

Abstract: Accumulated temperature（ΣT）was simulated under SRES A2/B2 scenarios from 2021 to 2050 in Heilongjiang province by using the regional climate model PRECIS.Based on GIS to finely divide the accumulated temperature zone（ATZ），the movement and change of ATZ were studied.The results showed that PRECIS simulated fairly well temperature and spatial distribution characters of ΣT≥10℃（above 10℃）during growing season in Heilongjiang province.There would be 300-500℃·d increase for the most of Heilongjiang province from 2021 to 2050.A new ATZ with 2900-3100℃·d（as APP）would be developed in the west，mainly located in South of the Songnen plain.The 1st ATZ would be drastically moved more than 2 latitudes toward north and 8 longitudes toward east，The 2nd ATZ moved 1.5 latitudes toward north.In addition，the total area of APP ATZ，The 1st ATZ and The 2nd ATZ was more than 50 percents of total area of Heilongjiang province，which increased 42 percentage points than that of baseline period（1961-1990）.The 3rd ATZ would be moved more than 2 latitudes toward north.The 4th ATZ and the 5th ATZ disappeared almost in growing areas.Their total area was 45 percent of total area of Heilongjiang province，and was half as much as baseline period.The results could provide reference to deal with climate change and adjust crop planting structure and maturing types of variety in Heilongjiang province.

Key words: PRECIS, GIS, Heilongjiang province, Accumulated temperature zone, Movement

ZHU Hai-Xia, 吕Jia-Jia , LI Xiu-Fen, WANG Ping, LI Yu-Guang, WANG Ming, WANG Qiu-Jing, JIANG Li-Xia. Potential Variation of Accumulated Temperature Zone in Heilongjiang Province Under SRES A2/B2 Scenarios[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2014, 35(05): 485-491.

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