Revelation of Agrometeorology Learning From Climate Change 2014∶Impact， Adaptation，and Vulnerability

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2014.04.001

Abstract

Abstract: Through the understanding of the assessment of impacts，adaptation and vulnerability in the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report（WGII AR5）in related chapters with agriculture，the current situation，research gapes and proposed priorities of future studies were analyzed. IPCC suggested that，climate change without adaptation is projected to mainly negatively impact production for local temperature increases of 2℃ or more above the late-20th century levels， projected impacts vary across crops and regions and adaptation scenarios， with about 10% of projections for the period 2030-2049 showing yield gains of more than 10%， and about 10% of projections showing yield losses of more than 25%， compared to the late 20th century. But the research gaps showed from the assessment of climate change impacts on Chinese agriculture mainly focus on：（1）the quantified assessment ability of sensitivity and vulnerability of agriculture system for climate change is still weak;（2）the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on agriculture were difficultly detected and attributed；（3）there were not enough of integration studies，did not quantify contributions of the nonclimate factors；（4）there were less adaptation implementation and experience summary， less cost/benefit analysis. The priorities of future studies suggested in these area：（1）revising and improving impact models of food production，establish regional and global credible integrated models of food system；（2）further understanding the influence degree of CO2 associate with O3 on crops，impacts of high and low temperature on crops and physiological thresholds of drought and flood；（3）developing several experiments and simulations of climate impacts and adaptation on food production related with different warming scenarios， including crops， animals，fishery，fruits and vegetables as production factors and nonproduction factors，e.g. processing，distributing，retailing and consume models.

Key words: Climate change, Impact and adaptation, Agriculture systems, CO2

LIN Er da，XIE Li yong. Revelation of Agrometeorology Learning From Climate Change 2014∶Impact， Adaptation，and Vulnerability[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2014, 35(04): 359-364.

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