Spatial Downscaling Simulation of Monthly Precipitation Based on TRMM 3B43 Data in the Western Sichuan Plateau

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2016.02.015

Abstract

Abstract:

Using TRMM 3B43 data, MODIS-NDVI, DEM, meteorological data of observation stations during 2001-2013, a multiple linear regression model was built among TRMM 3B43 monthly precipitation and longitude, latitude, altitude, aspect, NDVI factor as downscaling model of monthly precipitation data in the Western Sichuan Plateau based on the analysis of the lag of vegetation response to precipitation. Then, combined with regression equation and residuals, interpolation method was adopted to obtain monthly precipitation data with 1km spatial resolution. Finally, the accuracy of simulated data obtained by downscaling model was tested by the correlation analysis and error detection between the simulated results and the observation data of 16 meteorological stations in the study area. The results showed as follows: (1) Precipitation simulated by downscaling model based on TRMM 3B43 data had a high precision in all meteorological observation stations. Daocheng site displayed the highest accuracy, the correlation coefficient between simulation results and observed values attained 0.9839, while Xiaojin site displayed the lowest accuracy, the correlation coefficient was 0.8781. (2) The precipitation simulated by downscaling model displayed high accuracy in the whole study area at both monthly and yearly time scale. The accuracy of simulated results from May to October was significantly higher than other months, as well as typical wet year (2012) was higher than dry year (2006). (3) The precipitation simulated by downscaling model displayed high accuracy to the observation data on the whole(R=0.9499, Bias=0.0866), while the value of simulated precipitation was slightly higher. (4) Compared to the original data TRMM 3B43, the simulated data by downscaling model guaranteed the accuracy and improved the spatial resolution. So, this method could provide an effective way to produce a more sophisticated precipitation data with higher spatial resolution.

Key words: TRMM 3B43 data, Precipitation data, Spatial downscaling, Lag, Multiple linear regression

ZHENG Jie, LV Li, FENG Wen-lan, TU Kun. Spatial Downscaling Simulation of Monthly Precipitation Based on TRMM 3B43 Data in the Western Sichuan Plateau[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2016, 37(02): 245-254.

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