Relative Sensitivity of Main Growth Durations to Temperature for Winter Wheat in North China Plain

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2016.04.007

Abstract

Abstract:

Under the condition of climate change, crop growth duration changed substantially. As a result, sensitivity of crop growth duration to temperature becomes an important part of the research of climate change impact on agriculture. Aiming to overcome shortcoming of the existing research about sensitivity, this paper put forward the concept of relative sensitivity and applied in North China Plain (NCP) to analyze the spatial-temporal characteristics of winter wheat. Using winter wheat phenology observation and daily-average temperature data from 65 agricultural meteorological observation stations in the NCP during 1980-2012, the changes of growth duration and average temperature during 4 major growth periods were calculated, including sowing to the start of overwintering (S-O), the start of overwintering to turning green (O-T), turning green to hearing (T-H) and heading to maturity (H-M). Based on the calculation, relative sensitivity of growth duration to temperature was calculated. Linear regression and GIS spatial interpolation were used to explain the results. Results showed that: (1) average temperature increased during all four growth period. Growth duration varied substantially spatially and temporally; (2) For the period S-O, sensitivity varied from -0.113 to 0.029℃-1, with an average of -0.040℃-1. Sensitivity is fairly stable during this period. Generally, middle plain is more sensitive than the north and south plain; (3) For the period O-T, sensitivity varied from -0.081 to 0.091℃-1, with an average of 0.013℃-1. Sensitivity is not stable for most stations and varied much among different stations; (4) For the period T-H, sensitivity varied from -0.112 to -0.035℃-1, with an average of -0.074℃-1. Value of sensitivity has no obvious regional distribution, but the stability of sensitivity is extremely high; (5) For the period H-M, sensitivity varied from -0.114 to 0.014℃-1, with an average of -0.042℃-1. The south plain is more sensitivity than the north. Stability of sensitivity is very high during this period. Temperature sensitivity is varied substantially among different developmental stages, and also varied significantly in different region. This study promotes understanding of regional crop response to climate change and varieties shift, and provides scientific basis for simulating phenology and hence yield response to future climate change.

Key words: Climate change, Growth duration, Relative sensitivity to temperature, Spatial pattern, Temporal pattern

GAO Jing, Wu Ding-rong, WANG Pei-juan,CHEN Jing-hua, YAN Feng, ZHAO Yu-fei, WANG Jia-qiang. Relative Sensitivity of Main Growth Durations to Temperature for Winter Wheat in North China Plain[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2016, 37(04): 431-436.

References

[1]IPCC.Climate change 2007:the physical science basis[M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007. [2]Garcia-Mozo H,Mestre A,Galan C.Phenological trends in southern Spain:a response to climate change[J].Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2010,150:575-580. [3]孟林,刘新建,邬定荣,等.华北平原夏玉米主要发育期对气候变化的响应[J].中国农业气象, 2015,36(4):375-382. Meng L,Liu X J,Wu D R,et al.Response of summer maize main phenology to climate change in the North China Plain[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometerology,2015,36(4):375- 382.(in Chinese) [4]王萍,李廷全,闫平,等.黑龙江省近35年气候变化对粳稻发育期及产量的影响[J].中国农业气象,2008,29(3):268 -271. Wang P,Li T Q,Yan P,et al.Impacts of climate change over last 35 years on rice growing period and yield in Heilongjiang province[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2008,29(3): 268 -271.(in Chinese) [5]蒋菊芳,王鹤龄,魏育国,等.河西走廊东部不同类型植物物候对气候变化的响应[J].中国农业气象,2011,32(4):543-549. Jiang J F,Wang H L,Wei Y G,et al.Response of different type plants' phenology to climate change in east of Hexi Corridor[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2011,32(4): 543-549.(in Chinese) [6]Tao F L,Zhang S,Zhang Z,et al.Maize growing duration was prolonged across China in the past three decades under the combined effects of temperature,agronomic management,and cultivar shift[J].Global Change Biology,2014,20:3686-3699. [7]Wang J,Wang E L,Feng L P,et al.Phenological trends of winter wheat in response to varietal and temperature changes in the North China Plain[J].Field Crops Research,2013,144: 135-144. [8]Zhang T Y,Huang Y,Yang X G.Climate warming over the past three decades has shortened rice growth duration in China and cultivar shifts have further accelerated the process for late rice[J].Global Change Biology,2013,19:563-570. [9]张宇,王石立,王馥棠.气候变化对我国小麦发育及产量可能影响的模拟研究[J].应用气象学报,2000,11:264-270. Zhang Y,Wang S L,Wang F T.Research on the possible effects of climate change on growth and yield of wheat in China[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2000, 11:264-270.(in Chinese) [10]杨建莹,梅旭荣,刘勤,等.气候变化背景下华北地区冬小麦生育期的变化特征[J].植物生态学报,2011,35(6):623-631. Yang J Y,Mei X R,Liu Q,et al.Variations of winter wheat growth stages under climate changes in northern China[J]. Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology,2011,35(6):623- 631.(in Chinese) [11]邱美娟,刘建栋,邬定荣,等.华北冬小麦开花及成熟期变化特征分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2014,32(3):250-255. Qiu M J,Liu J D,Wu D R,et al.Characteristics of variations in growth stages of winter wheat in North China Plain[J]. Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas,2014,32(3):250-255. (in Chinese) [12]陈书涛,王让会,许遐祯,等.气温及降水变化对江苏省典型农业区冬小麦、水稻生育期的影响[J].中国农业气象,2011,2(2):235-239. Chen S T,Wang R H,Xu X Z,et al.Impacts of variations in air temperature and precipitation on the growth stages of winter wheat and rice in typical agricultural zones of Jiangsu province[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2011,2(2): 235-239.(in Chinese) [13]余卫东,赵国强,陈怀亮.气候变化对河南省主要农作物生育期的影响[J].中国农业气象,2007,28(1): 9-12. Yu W D,Zhao G W,Chen H L.Impacts of climate change on growing stages of main crops in Henan province[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2007,28(1):9-12.(in Chinese) [14]Estrella N,Sparks T H,Menzel A.Trends and temperature response in the phenology of crops in Germany[J].Global Change Biology,2007,13:1737-1747. [15]肖登攀,陶福禄.过去30年气候变化对华北平原冬小麦物候的影响研究[J].中国生态农业学报,2012,20(11): 1539-1545. Xiao D P,Tao F L.Impact of climate change in 1981-2009 on winter wheat phenology in the North China Plain[J].Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture,2012,20(11):1539-1545.(in Chinese) [16]肖登攀,陶福禄,沈彦俊,等.华北平原冬小麦对过去30 年气候变化响应的敏感性研究[J].中国生态农业学报,2014,22(4):430-438. Xiao D P,Tao F L,Shen Y J,et al.Sensitivity of response of winter wheat to climate change in the North China Plain in the last three decades[J].Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2014,22(4):430-438.(in Chinese) [17]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:37-39. Wei F Y.Modern climatic statistical diagnosis and prediction technology[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2007:37- 39.(in Chinese)