Impacts of Different Base Temperature on Simulation Effect of Beginning Flowering Date of Prunus discoidea in Beijing

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2018.01.001

Abstract

Abstract: It is a commonly used statistical method to determine the base temperature index (Tb) of plant growth and development by comparing stability and prediction accuracy of stage growing degree days (GDD) calculated by different artificial given base temperature index using actual observed phenomena data.In this paper, active growing degree days (GDDA) and effective growing degree days (GDDE) from Jan. 1st to the beginning flowing date of Prunus discoidea were calculated by different given Tb in the range of 0.0-5.0 ℃ with step of 0.1℃ using the observed data during 1998-2014 at Yuyuantan Park, Haidian District, Beijing. Effects of different given Tb on stability of two kinds GDD and simulated phenomena accuracy were also compared and analyzed. The results showed that: （1）stage GDD changes as Tb changes. GDDA and its inter-annual variability are both bigger than that of GDDE.（2）Both standard deviation (SD) and coefficient of variation (CV) of calculated GDDA or GDDE are smallest at the Tb range of 2.0-3.5℃, which could be the real Tb of Prunus discoidea determined by statistics under the condition without physiological experiment. SD of GDDA is bigger than that of GDDE, suggested that error of the beginning flowing date estimated by GDDE is smaller than that by GDDA. As an index of relative discrete degree, CV of GDDE calculation is smaller than that of GDDA in the Tb range of 0.0-2.9℃ but is bigger if Tb ≥3.0℃.（3）Comparing estimated beginning flowing dates of different given Tb, the accuracy is highest in the range of 2-3℃. In the range of 0.0-3.2℃, both basic accuracy (error＜3days) and accuracy (error＜2days) of the simulated date by GDDE is better than that by GDDA, but is opposite when Tb＞3.8℃.In the range of 3.3-3.8℃, basic accuracy estimated by GDDE is better than that of GDDA, but accuracy is opposite.

Key words: Growing degree-days, Growth and developmental assumption, Base temperature, Coefficient of variation, Simulation accuracy

YE Cai-hua, ZHOU Xiao-huang, JIANG Hui-fei, JIANG Shao-jie, ZHANG Yu-ying, ZHANG Zi-yuan, LI Chao. Impacts of Different Base Temperature on Simulation Effect of Beginning Flowering Date of Prunus discoidea in Beijing[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2018, 39(01): 1-8.

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