Table of Content

20 January 2018, Volume 39 Issue 01

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Impacts of Different Base Temperature on Simulation Effect of Beginning Flowering Date of Prunus discoidea in Beijing

YE Cai-hua, ZHOU Xiao-huang, JIANG Hui-fei, JIANG Shao-jie, ZHANG Yu-ying, ZHANG Zi-yuan, LI Chao

2018, 39(01):  1-8.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2018.01.001

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It is a commonly used statistical method to determine the base temperature index (Tb) of plant growth and development by comparing stability and prediction accuracy of stage growing degree days (GDD) calculated by different artificial given base temperature index using actual observed phenomena data.In this paper, active growing degree days (GDDA) and effective growing degree days (GDDE) from Jan. 1st to the beginning flowing date of Prunus discoidea were calculated by different given Tb in the range of 0.0-5.0 ℃ with step of 0.1℃ using the observed data during 1998-2014 at Yuyuantan Park, Haidian District, Beijing. Effects of different given Tb on stability of two kinds GDD and simulated phenomena accuracy were also compared and analyzed. The results showed that: （1）stage GDD changes as Tb changes. GDDA and its inter-annual variability are both bigger than that of GDDE.（2）Both standard deviation (SD) and coefficient of variation (CV) of calculated GDDA or GDDE are smallest at the Tb range of 2.0-3.5℃, which could be the real Tb of Prunus discoidea determined by statistics under the condition without physiological experiment. SD of GDDA is bigger than that of GDDE, suggested that error of the beginning flowing date estimated by GDDE is smaller than that by GDDA. As an index of relative discrete degree, CV of GDDE calculation is smaller than that of GDDA in the Tb range of 0.0-2.9℃ but is bigger if Tb ≥3.0℃.（3）Comparing estimated beginning flowing dates of different given Tb, the accuracy is highest in the range of 2-3℃. In the range of 0.0-3.2℃, both basic accuracy (error＜3days) and accuracy (error＜2days) of the simulated date by GDDE is better than that by GDDA, but is opposite when Tb＞3.8℃.In the range of 3.3-3.8℃, basic accuracy estimated by GDDE is better than that of GDDA, but accuracy is opposite.

Research on Local Environmental Temperature Change and Forecast in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area Based on Time Series Analysis

MA Li, YU Rui-lin, LI Jie, XIA Li-zhong, LI Yun-cong

2018, 39(01):  9-17.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2018.01.002

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To confirm the effects of water storage of the Three Gorges Project on local climate change, using the method of time series analysis and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA), local temperatures in a typical area of the upper basin of the Three Gorges Reservoir area (TGA) located in Zigui County were continuously observed and analyzed during 2001-2015. The results showed that the time series of air and soil temperature can be determined as the seasonal non-stationary time series, the peak value of monthly mean air temperature occurred in July (29.0℃) and trough value occurred in January (6.0℃). The air temperature declined to17.8℃ in 2003 and then stable up to 18.3℃ in 2007, the medium term continued to decline to 17.1℃ in 2011, and the latter stable up to 17.8℃ in 2013; the soil temperature stable increased to 21.1℃ in 2005, declined to 19.3℃ in 2008, and the latter stable up to 20.0℃ in 2013. The local environment temperature in the upper basin of the TGA had a certain degree of inter-annual fluctuation, but no significantly monotonic trends were found. These results indicate that the water storage of the Three Gorges Project had no significant influence on the local environmental temperature in the study area during the 15 years. Forecast models of air and soil temperature were obtained using ARIMA model, the forecast value and the observed value are in good agreement with the observed value in 2015. The results also indicated that the model can be optimized and applied for long-term monitoring data in this region.

Spatiotemporal Change Characteristics and Causes Analysis of Reference Crop Evapotranspiration in Hainan Island

ZOU Hai-ping, CHEN Hui-lin, TIAN Guang-hui, CHEN Xiao-min, BAI Rui, TONG Jin-he

2018, 39(01):  18-26.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2018.01.003

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Based on the daily data of 18 meteorological stations in Hainan Island from 1971 to 2010, spatiotemporal change characteristics of ET0 of year and the four seasons were analyzed with linear regression and ArcGIS spatial interpolation techniques after calculation with the Penman-Monteith model. Then the sensitivity coefficients were combined with the relative changes of meteorological factors to study the causes of change of ET0 of year and the four seasons. The results showed that the average annual ET0 of 18 stations was 1191.4mm, and except for summer, ET0 of year and the other 3 seasons increased from the northeast to southwest approximately. The average climate change rate of annual ET0 of 18 stations was -5.0mm×10y-1 in recent 40 years, among which 13 stations’ climate change rates were negative and 5 stations’ were positive. The average climate change rate of four seasons’ ET0 were -3.1, 1.8, -0.7 and -2.8mm×10y-1, respectively. Overall, 13 stations’ annual ET0 decreased mainly due to the decrease of ET0 of spring, and the rest 5 stations’ increase was mainly due to the increase of ET0 of summer. The attribution analysis showed that mean wind speed’ decrease and sunshine hours’ reduction was by and large the main reason for the decrease of ET0 of year, spring, summer, and autumn in most areas of Hainan Island. Besides the reason above, the decrease of vapor pressure was also one of the major causes for the decrease of winter’s ET0. On the other hand, the major reason for the increase of annual and four seasons’ ET0 was the rise of the average maximum and minimum temperature.

Effects of Grazing Density on Nitrous Oxide Effluxes in Alpine Kobresia Humilis Meadow on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

LI Hong-qin, WEI Ya-xi, HE Hui-dan, YANG Yong-sheng, LI Ying-nian

2018, 39(01):  27-33.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2018.01.004

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Based on the experimental platform of 5 years grazing density including fencing (CK), light grazing (LG), moderate grazing (MG) and heavy grazing (HG) over the alpine Kobresia meadow on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the characteristics of N2O effluxes and its main environmental factors of different grazing density were studied by static closed chamber-gas chromatography method from June to September in 2016.The results showed that only the topsoil water content, topsoil bulk density and topsoil organic carbon content responded significantly (P＜0.05) to the grazing density. The seasonal patterns of N2O effluxes showed the “U” shape with relatively higher rate during early and late stage of growing season in alpine meadow. The N2O effluxes in fencing treatments was clearly (P＜0.01) lower than that of other three grazing gradients. There was a little positive trend between N2O effluxes and grazing density. The surface soil temperature played a predominated role in the seasonal variations of the N2O effluxes in alpine meadow and its magnitude was influenced by grazing density. The results suggested that only the magnitude, not the direction, of N2O effluxes was significantly influenced by the medium (short) -term grazing management during growing season. The fencing management could significantly reduce the N2O emission caused by improving the soil temperature.

Climate Adaptability Analysis for Wine Grape at Xiangning County in Southern of Lvliang Mountains

LV Ai-li, HUO Zhi-guo, YANG Jian-ying

2018, 39(01):  34-45.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2018.01.005

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In this study, Xiangning was selected as a typical representation of the southern of Lvliang Mountains. The data used in this study included the meteorological data from Xiangning meteorological station during 1972?2015, and wine grape experimental data from 2009 to 2015 provided by Rongzi Limited Company of Xiangning. Wine grape-related climatic conditions such as sunshine, temperature, rainfall, and water heat coefficient were analyzed using statistical methods to assess the climate adaptability of wine grape planting in this area. The results showed that: (1) the average frost-free day of grape in Xiangning was 202.8d. The accumulated temperature ≥10℃was 3498.0℃·d. The average temperature of the coldest month was ?4.4℃, and the extreme minimum temperature was ?21.6℃. These climatic conditions satisfied the grape growth in southern of Lvliang Mountains. (2) The accumulated temperature before 1990 was small and therefore favored the early-maturing and middle-maturing varieties of wine grapes. The accumulated temperature after 1990 had increased substantially as a result of global warming, hence late-maturing varieties of wine grapes were favored to plant. (3) The agro-climatic resources of sunlight, temperature, and water, and their distributions during grape growing season generally were beneficial to the growth and the quality development of wine grapes. Low temperature disasters existed as the frost probability was 22.7% in mid-April. Summer maximum temperature in this area was lower than 38℃. Continuous rainfalls in July and August in some years influenced the sugar content of wine grapes. (4) Significant positive relationships between grape sweetness level and light and heat conditions were detected during the grape mature period, while negative correlations existed between grape sweetness level and water conditions, especially humidity. The average temperature, precipitation, sunlight, diurnal temperature range, and water heat coefficient during the mature month of wine grape (September) were 21.9℃, 74.4mm, 6.7h, 10.6℃, and 1.5, respectively. Favorable temperature conditions, enough sunlight, large diurnal temperature range, and small rainfall formed a climatic environment for the growth of wine grapes with good qualities. Planting experiments showed that sugar content in wine grapes meet the standards for making high quality wine, which proved that this area was suitable for commercial planting of wine grapes.

Space-time Distribution of High Temperature Disasters on Single-cropping Rice during Heading-flowering Stage and Filling-harvest Stage in Sichuan Province

LIU Jia, CHEN Chao, ZHANG Yu-fang, PANG Yan-mei, CHEN Dong-dong，LAI Jiang

2018, 39(01):  46-58.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2018.01.006

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In this paper, spatial-temporal variation characteristics of high temperature disasters on single-cropping rice during heading-flowering stage and filling-harvest stage were analyzed with agricultural data including meteorology, rice production and agro-meteorology from 1961 to 2014 in Sichuan province by linear regression, multiple regression, Morlet wavelet analysis. The results showed that the total and different grades of high temperature disaster occurrence times were a significant upward trend from 1961 to 2014, especially after 2000. The mild heat damage increased significantly during heading-flowering stage, and the severe heat damage increased significantly during filling-harvest stage. The different grades of high temperature disaster occurrence times showed a significant periodic oscillation during growth period on 16 years, 12 years, 4 years time scale. Based on periodic changes speculated, it will remain high temperature disaster in 2015. The distribution of heat injury spatial pattern showed “less in mountainous and multi in basin”. Rice planting area can be divided into: high temperature disaster often occurred in central plain area and southern hilly of basin, seldom happen in eastern hilly of basin, less happened in southwest mountain. Under the background of climate warming, the frequency of different grades of high temperature disaster has increased, and frequent center has expanded from the plains to the mountain since 1990. This study has realized the transition of high temperature disasters monitoring products which from qualitative to quantitative. It combined the dynamic monitoring, improved the accuracy of the spatial distribution, and extended timeliness of the study.

Analysis to Late Frost Damage for Winter Wheat Based on Meteorological Factors ——Taking Henan Province as an Example

ZHU Hong-hui, WU Yong-feng, SONG Ji-qing, DU Ke-ming

2018, 39(01):  59-68.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2018.01.007

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To clarify the meteorological conditions of winter wheat damaged by late frost in Henan Province, SPI and the effective accumulated temperature anomaly were taken as early water and heat factors, and the anomaly value of daily range, mean relative humidity, sunshine duration and the difference minimum temperature of the last and frost day were selected as meteorological factors when freezing. Then comparing actual late frost and index frost, K-means cluster analysis was taken and the correlation coefficients between any of two meteorological factors in different actual frost level was analyzed. The results showed that the frequency of late frost (0.64) by meteorological indices was higher than the frequency of real happened frost (0.52) in Henan province during 1964-2014. There was positive correlation between sunshine duration anomaly and daily range anomaly. The cluster analysis results with meteorological factors in early stage showed 83.3% mild actual frost correspond the weak water condition and the sufficient heat condition, 64.3% severe actual frost corresponded the weak water condition and insufficient heat condition. The cluster analysis also showed that 61.11% of mild frosts happened under dry, greater daily range of temperature, greater sunshine hours and larger difference minimum temperature between last and frost day, while 71.42% of severe frosts happened under wet, less daily range of temperature, less sunshine hours and larger difference minimum temperature between last and frost day. The results indicated that the actual frost damage was obviously different from the meteorological damage, and the correlation between meteorological factors affects the freezing injury. The actual frost was related to the insufficient water condition in the early stage, and mild frosts were more possible to be radiation frost, and most of severe frosts were mixed frost.