Research on Local Environmental Temperature Change and Forecast in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area Based on Time Series Analysis

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2018.01.002

Abstract

Abstract: To confirm the effects of water storage of the Three Gorges Project on local climate change, using the method of time series analysis and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA), local temperatures in a typical area of the upper basin of the Three Gorges Reservoir area (TGA) located in Zigui County were continuously observed and analyzed during 2001-2015. The results showed that the time series of air and soil temperature can be determined as the seasonal non-stationary time series, the peak value of monthly mean air temperature occurred in July (29.0℃) and trough value occurred in January (6.0℃). The air temperature declined to17.8℃ in 2003 and then stable up to 18.3℃ in 2007, the medium term continued to decline to 17.1℃ in 2011, and the latter stable up to 17.8℃ in 2013; the soil temperature stable increased to 21.1℃ in 2005, declined to 19.3℃ in 2008, and the latter stable up to 20.0℃ in 2013. The local environment temperature in the upper basin of the TGA had a certain degree of inter-annual fluctuation, but no significantly monotonic trends were found. These results indicate that the water storage of the Three Gorges Project had no significant influence on the local environmental temperature in the study area during the 15 years. Forecast models of air and soil temperature were obtained using ARIMA model, the forecast value and the observed value are in good agreement with the observed value in 2015. The results also indicated that the model can be optimized and applied for long-term monitoring data in this region.

Key words: Time series, Local climate, Three Gorges Reservoir area (TGA), Temperature, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model

MA Li, YU Rui-lin, LI Jie, XIA Li-zhong, LI Yun-cong. Research on Local Environmental Temperature Change and Forecast in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area Based on Time Series Analysis[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2018, 39(01): 9-17.

References

[1] Miller N,Jin J M,He H,et al.Local climate sensitivity to the Three Gorges Dam[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2005,86(3):334-335. [2]陈国阶,徐琪,杜榕桓,等.三峡工程对生态与环境的影响及对策研究[M].北京:科学出版社,1995:1-46. Chen G J,Xu Q,Du R H,et al.The effects of the Three Gorges Project on ecology and environment influence and countermeasures study[M].Beijing:Science Press,1995:1-46. (in Chinese) [3]杨林章,董元华,马毅杰,等.三峡库首地区土地资源潜力与生态环境建设[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2007:2-12, 172-194. Yang L Z,Dong Y H,Ma Y J,et al.Potential productivity and eco-environmental construction in the areas of head part of the Three Gorges Reservoir[M].Beijing:China Water Power Press,2007:2- 12,172-194.(in Chinese) [4]叶殿秀,张强,邹旭恺,等.近几十年三峡库区主要气象灾害变化趋势[J].长江流域资源与环境,2009,18(3):296-300. Ye D X,Zhang Q,Zou X K,et al.Changing trends of major meteorological disasters in recent decades over Three Gorges Reservoir area[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2009,18(3):296-300.(in Chinese) [5]沈国舫.三峡工程对生态和环境的影响[J].科学中国人,2010, 48(8):48-51. Shen G F.The influence of the Three Gorges Project on ecology and environment[J].Scientific Chinese,2010,48(8): 48-51.(in Chinese) [6]Mei X,Dai Z,Du J,et al.Linkage between three gorges dam impacts and the dramatic recessions in China's largest freshwater lake,Poyang lake[R].Nature Publishing Group, Scientific Reports,2015,(5):18197. [7]Strehmel A,Sch?nbrodt-stitt S,Buzzo G,et al.Assessment of geo-hazards in a rapidly changing landscape:the three gorges reservoir region in China[J].Environmental Earth Sciences, 2015,74(6): 4939-4960. [8]Zhang Q F,Lou Z P.The environmental changes and mitigation actions in the Three Gorges Reservoir region[J].China, Environmental Science & Policy,2011,14 (8):1132-1138. [9]Fu B J,Wu B F,Lv Y H,et al.Three Gorges Project:efforts and challenges for the environment[J].Progress in Physical Geo- graphy,2010,34(6):741-754. [10]Li Z X,Wang R,Zhou Z L,et al.Three Gorges Project's impact on the water resource and environment of Yangtze River[J]. Journal of Applied Sciences,2013,13(17): 3394-3399. [11]王树文,祁源莉.三峡工程对生态环境与生态系统的影响及政策分析模型研究[J].中国人口资源与环境,2015,25(5): 106-113. Wang S W,Qin Y L.Research on the models of policy analysis and the influences on ecological environment and ecosystem of the Three Gorges Project[J].China Population Resources and Environment,2015,25(5):106-113.(in Chinese) [12]Shen Z,Chen L,Hong Q,et al.Vertical variation of nonpoint source pollutants in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region[J]. PLoS One,2013,8(8):e71194. [13]Li S,Xiong L H,Dong L H,et al.Effects of the Three Gorges Reservoir on the hydrological droughts at the downstream Yichang station during 2003-2011[J].Hydrological Processes, 2013,27(26): 3981-3993. [14]张天宇,范莉,孙杰,等.1961-2008年三峡库区气候变化特征分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2010,19(S1):52-61. Zhang T Y,Fan L,Sun J,et al.Analysis of climate change characteristics in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area in 1961-2008[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2010,19(Supple1):52-61.(in Chinese) [15]陈鲜艳,张强,叶殿秀,等.三峡库区局地气候变化[J].长江流域资源与环境,2009,18(1):47-51. Chen X Y,Zhang Q,Ye D X,et al.Regional climate change over Three Gorges Reservoir area[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2009,18(1):47-51.(in Chinese) [16]马占山,张强,秦琰琰.三峡水库对区域气候影响的数值模拟分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2010,19(9):1044-1052. Ma Z S,Zhang Q,Qin Y Y.Numerical simulation and analysis of the effect of Three Gorges Reservoir Project on the regional climate change[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2010,19(9):1044-1052.(in Chinese) [17]张洪涛,祝昌汉,张强.长江三峡水库气候效应数值模拟[J].长江流域资源与环境,2004,13(2):133-137. Zhang H T,Zhu C H,Zhang Q.Numerical modeling of microclimate effects produced by the formation of the Three Gorges Reservoir[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2004,13(2):133-137.(in Chinese) [18]Wu J G,Huang J H,Han X G,et al.The Three Gorges Dam:an ecological perspective[J].Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment,2004,2(5):241-248. [19]贾俊平,何晓群,金勇进.统计学(第六版)[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2015:320-348. Jia J P,He X Q,Jin Y J.Statistic(sixth edition)[M].Beijing: China Renmin University Press,2015:320-348.(in Chinese) [20]范金城,梅晓林.数据分析(第二版)[M].北京:科学出版社,2010:192-300. Fan J C,Mei X L.Data analysis(second edition)[M].Beijing: Science Press,2010:192-300.(in Chinese) [21]薛毅,陈立萍.统计建模与R软件[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2006:468-495. Xue Y,Chen L P.Statistical modeling and R software[M]. Beijing:Tsinghua University Press,2006:468-495.(in Chinese) [22]常学将,陈敬,王明生.时间序列分析[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1993. Chang X J,Chen J,Wang M S.Time series analysis[M]. Beijing:Higher Education Press,1993.(in Chinese) [23]Li R H,Akira M,Zhou J.Abnormal state detection of building structures based on symbolic time series analysis and negative selection[J].Structural Control Health Monitoring, 2014,21(1):80-97. [24]James R T,James R W.Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis:practical applications to financial time series[J]. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation,2016,126:63-88. [25]吴涛,颜辉武,唐桂刚.三峡库区水质数据时间序列分析预测研究[J].武汉大学学报,2006,31(6):500-502. Wu T,Yan H W,Tang G G. Prediction on time series analysis of water quality in Yangtze Gorges Reservoir Area[J].Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University,2006,31(6):500-502.(in Chinese) [26]Iqbal M,Amjad N.Forecasting inflation:autoregressive integrated moving average model[J].European Scientific Journal,2016, 12(1):83-92. [27]Wang W C,Chau K W,Xu D M,et al.Improving forecasting accuracy of annual runoff time series using ARIMA based on EEMD decomposition[J].Water Resources Management,2015, 29(8):2655-2675.