Flood Disaster Index Construction of Single Cropping Rice Based on Process Rainfall in Middle and Lower Yangtze River

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2018.05.004

Abstract

Abstract:

The single cropping rice is mainly distributed in the north of Yangtze River. Affected by climate, topography and landforms, Middle and Lower Yangtze River is one of the areas where floods occur most frequently. Therefore, it is very important to study the spatiotemporal variation law and risk distribution of single cropping rice flood in this area. In this study, daily precipitation data of 297 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2014, rice phenophase and flood disaster data in Middle and Lower Yangtze River were integrated to count process rainfall sequences at different stages of single cropping rice growth and different disaster levels. The lower limit of 95% confidence interval for sample sequences was calculated by t-distribution interval estimation method. Flood disaster index for each province in different single cropping rice growth stage was validated by the reserved independent samples of rice flood disaster. Afterwards, spatiotemporal and risk distribution of flood disaster for single cropping rice were analyzed in the area from 1961 to 2010. The results showed that tasselling-maturity stage’s index threshold was the highest in the same flood grade, followed by the jointing-booting stage’s and transplanting-tillering stage’s. In the same growth stage and same flood grade, index threshold of 5 provinces from low to high was Jiangsu, Anhui, Hubei, Hunan, Zhejiang. Single cropping rice flood occurred annually in each province, and without obvious tendency. With flood disaster level increasing, times of rice flood decreased. The high incidence areas of flood disaster for single cropping rice were mainly located in Poyang Lake, Zhejiang coast, Enshi and Zhangjiajie. Transplanting-tillering stage was faced with highest flood risk, with risk index >0.6. Except the coastal areas of Zhejiang, risk index in most areas decreased significantly with < 0.3 during the period from jointing to maturity.

Key words: Middle and Lower Yangtze River, Single cropping rice, Process rainfall, Flood disaster index, Spatiotemporal analysis, Risk analysis

ZHANG Gui-xiang，HUO Zhi-guo，YANG Jian-ying，WU Li，YANG Hong-yi. Flood Disaster Index Construction of Single Cropping Rice Based on Process Rainfall in Middle and Lower Yangtze River[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2018, 39(05): 325-336.

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