Difference and Cause Analysis of Drought Characteristics during Growth Period between the Corn Belts of China and the United States in Past 30 Years

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2018.06.005

Abstract

Abstract: Corn growth in China and the United States(US) has been seriously affected by the drought disaster under climate change. In order to effectively reference the advanced experiences on drought mitigation of the US, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI) was calculated for two corn belts located in Northeast of China(NEC) and the US based on the observed meteorological data during 1986-2015. The observed differences in drought characteristics were compared and their causes were further analyzed by conducting the linear fitting analysis, correlation test and other statistical methods. The results showed that, compared with the US, corn growth period in the corn belt of NEC has higher solar radiation, lower average air temperature, and less but concentrated precipitation during late growth stage, and precipitation in the corn belt of the US was relatively evenly distributed during the whole growth period. Time variation of annual SPEI, drought frequency, drought severity and drought extent during different growth stages were significant different in two areas, with respective characteristics in the spatial distribution. Drought frequency and severity in the corn belt of NEC was higher than that of the US during the whole growth period because of the higher frequency of high air temperature, rainless and high radiation weather, especially the differences of drought characteristics between two areas became more significant during late growth stage due to the lower frequency of abnormal weather happened in the corn belt of the US. Consistency of temporal changes of radiation, air temperature and precipitation in two areas led to the similar trends of dry-wet variations, i.e., wetter during early and drier during late growth stage. However, significant wetter trend was only happened in the corn belt of the US during early growth stage due to its significant increase in precipitation and decrease in radiation. The US may pay more attention to the drought management during early growth stage of the corn belt in respond to drought threats, but for NEC, in addition to the drought management during early growth stage, additional attention should be paid to the late growth stage. Therefore, in referencing the experience of drought mitigation from foreign countries, enough attention should be paid to the differences of drought-resistant measures resulted from the differences in the characteristics and disaster-leading factors of drought disaster in the different regions.

Key words: Corn belts of NEC and the US, Climate background, SPEI, Spatiotemporal distribution, Cause analysis

WANG Fang, WANG Chun-yi, WU Ding-rong, YAO Shu-ran, BAI Yue-ming, ZHANG Ji-quan. Difference and Cause Analysis of Drought Characteristics during Growth Period between the Corn Belts of China and the United States in Past 30 Years[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2018, 39(06): 398-410.

References

[1] 王春乙,娄秀荣,王建林.中国农业气象灾害对作物产量的影响[J].自然灾害学报,2007,16(5):37-43. Wang C Y,Lou X R,Wang J L.Influence of agricultural meteorological disasters on output of crop in China[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters,2007,16(5):37-43.(in Chinese) [2] Lobell D B,Roberts M J,Schlenker W,et al.Greater sensitivity to drought accompanies maize yield increase in the US Midwest[J].Science,2014,344(6183):516-519. [3] 刘笑,何学敏,游松财.1976-2015年中国主要农业气象灾害的变化特征[J].中国农业气象,2017,38(8):481-487. Liu X,He X M,You S C.Characteristics of agricultural meteorological disasters in China from 1976 to 2015[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2017,38(8):481-487.(in Chinese) [4] 董婉璐,杨军,程申,等.美国农业保险和农产品期货对农民收入的保障作用:以2012年美国玉米遭受旱灾为例[J].中国农村经济,2014,(9):82-86+96. Dong W L,Yang J,Cheng S,et al.The guarantee effect of US agricultural insurance and agricultural commodity futureson farmers’ income:a case study of US drought for corn in 2012[J].Chinese Rural Economy,2014,(9):82-86+96.(in Chinese) [5] Wu D,Qu J J,Hao X J.Agricultural drought monitoring using MODIS-based drought indices over the USA Corn Belt[J].International Journal of Remote Sensing,2015,36(21): 5403-5425. [6] Otkin J A,Anderson M C,Hain C,et al.Assessing the evolution of soil moisture and vegetation conditions during the 2012 United States flash drought[J].Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2016,218-219:230-242. [7] Zhang L F,Jiao W Z,Zhang H M,et al.Studying drought phenomena in the Continental United States in 2011 and 2012 using various drought indices[J].Remote Sensing of Environment,2017,190: 96-106. [8] Li Y P,Ye W,Wang M,et al.Climate change and drought:a risk assessment of crop-yield impacts[J].Climate Research,2009, 39(1):31-46. [9] 马建勇,潘婕,许吟隆,等.SRES A1B情景下东北地区未来干旱趋势预估[J].干旱区研究,2013,30(2):329-335. Ma J Y,Pan J,Xv Y L,et al.Drought trend in Northeast China in the future under SRES A1B scenario[J].Arid Zone Research, 2013,30(2):329-335.(in Chinese) [10] 宋莉莉,王秀东.美国世纪大旱引发的思考:农业生产中如何应对极端气候变化[J].中国农业信息,2013,(6): 13-14. Song L L,Wang X D.Reflections on American severe drought once in a centary:how to deal with extreme climate change in agricultural production[J].China Agricultural Information,2013,(6):13-14.(in Chinese) [11] 屈艳萍,吴玉成,苏志诚.国际干旱灾害管理实践及对我国的启示[J].中国水利,2013,(8):14-16+27. Qu Y P,Wu Y C,Su Z C.International practice of drought management and its enlightenments to China[J].China Water Resources,2013,(8):14-16+27.(in Chinese) [12] 薛军,廖晓莉.美国、以色列和巴西农业旱灾风险管理的经验借鉴[J].世界农业,2017,(2):59-64. Xue J,Liao X L.The lesson of the agricultural drought risk management experiences in the United States,Israel,and Brazil[J].World Agriculture,2017,(2):59-64.(in Chinese) [13] 高明,田子玉,蔡红梅,等.我国与美国玉米生产的差距浅析[J].玉米科学,2008,16(3):147-149. Gao M,Tian Z Y,Cai H M,et al.Analysis on the difference of maize production between American and China[J].Journal of Maize Sciences,2008,16(3):147-149.(in Chinese) [14] 杨双.东北地区玉米产业发展现状及趋势[J].中国种业,2015,(4):6-8. Yang S.The status and trend of Northeast corn industry development[J].China Seed Industry,2015,(4):6-8.(in Chinese) [15] 魏凤英,张婷.东北地区干旱强度频率分布特征及其环流背景[J].自然灾害学报,2009,18(3):1-7. Wei F Y,Zhang T.Frequency distribution of drought intensity in Northeast China and relevant circulation background[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters,2009,18(3):1-7.(in Chinese) [16] Mishra V,Cherkauer K A.Retrospective droughts in the crop growing season:implications to corn and soybean yield in the Midwestern United States[J].Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2010,150(7-8):1030-1045. [17] 马建勇,许吟隆.东北地区作物生长季干旱时空分布特征及其环流背景[J].中国农业气象,2013,34(1):81-87. Ma J Y,Xu Y L.Temporal and spatial characteristics and circulation background of drought in crop growing season over Northeast China[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2013,34(1):81-87.(in Chinese) [18] Zhang F,Lei Y D,Yu Q R,et al.Causality of the drought in the Southwestern United States based on observations[J].Journal of Climate,2017,30(13):4891-4896. [19] Heim R R.A review of twentieth-century drought indices used in the United States[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2002,83(8):1149-1165. [20] 李柏贞,周广胜.干旱指标研究进展[J].生态学报,2014, 34(5):1043-1052. Li B Z,Zhou G S.Advance in the study on drought index[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2014,34(5):1043-1052.(in Chinese) [21] 陈莉,方丽娟,李帅.东北地区近50年农作物生长季干旱趋势研究[J].灾害学,2010,25(4):5-10. Chen L,Fang L J,Li S.Study on drought trend of crop growing season in Northeast China in recent 50 years[J]. Journal of Catastrophology,2010,25(4):5-10.(in Chinese) [22] 高晓容,王春乙,张继权,等.近50年东北玉米生育阶段需水量及旱涝时空变化[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(12):101-109. Gao X R,Wang C Y,Zhang J Q,et al.Crop water requirement and temporal-spatial variation of drought and flood disaster during growth stages for maize in Northeast during past 50 years[J].Transactions of the CSAE,2012,28(12):101-109.(in Chinese) [23] Mo K C,Long L N,Schemm J K E.Characteristics of drought and persistent wet spells over the United States in the Atmosphere-Land-Ocean coupled model experiments[J]. Earth Interactions,2012,16:26. [24] Svoboda M D,Fuchs B A,Poulsen C C,et al.The drought risk atlas:Enhancing decision support for drought risk management in the United States[J].Journal of Hydrology,2015,526:274-286. [25] Hunt E D,Svoboda M,Wardlow B,et al.Monitoring the effects of rapid onset of drought on non-irrigated maize with agronomic data and climate-based drought indices[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2014,191:1-11. [26] 高蓓,姜彤,苏布达,等.基于SPEI的1961-2012年东北地区干旱演变特征分析[J].中国农业气象,2014,35(6):656-662. Gao Bi,Jiang T,Su B D,et al.Evolution analysis on droughts in Northeast China during 1961-2012 based on SPEI[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2014,35(6):656-662.(in Chinese) [27] Potopova V,Stepanek P,Mozny M,et al.Performance of the standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index at various lags for agricultural drought risk assessment in the Czech Republic[J].Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2015,202:26-38. [28] 沈国强,郑海峰,雷振锋.SPEI指数在中国东北地区干旱研究中的适用性分析[J].生态学报,2017,37(11):1-9. Shen G Q,Zheng H F,Lei Z F.Applicability analysis of SPEI for drought research in Northeast China[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2017,37(11):1-9.(in Chinese) [29] Allen R G,Pereira L S,Raes D,et al.Crop evapotranspiration- guidelines for computing crop water requirements:FAO Irrigation and drainage paper 56[M].Rome:FAO,1998. [30] Vicente-Serrano S M,Begueria S,Lopez-Moreno J I.A Multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming:the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index[J].Journal of Climate,2010,23(7):1696-1718. [31] Wang Q F,Wu J J,Lei T J,et al.Temporal-spatial characteristics of severe drought events and their impact on agriculture on a global scale[J].Quaternary International, 2014,349:10-21. [32] Matiu M,Ankerst D P,Menzel A.Interactions between temperature and drought in global and regional crop yield variability during 1961-2014[J].Plos One,2017,12(5):23. [33] Wu H,Hubbard K G,Wilhite D A.An agricultural drought risk-assessment model for corn and soybeans[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2004,24(6):723-741. [34] 郭春明,任景全,张铁林,等.东北地区春玉米生长季农田蒸散量动态变化及其影响因子[J].中国农业气象,2016,37(4): 400-407. Guo C M,Ren J Q,Zhang T L,et al.Dynamic change of evapotranspiration and influenced factors in the spring maize field in Northeast China[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2016,37(4):400-407.(in Chinese) [35] Begueria S,Vicente-Serrano S M,Reig F,et al.Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)revisited: parameter fitting,evapotranspiration models,tools,datasets and drought monitoring[J].International Journal of Climatology, 2014,34(10):3001-3023. [36] Mitra S,Srivastava P.Spatiotemporal variability of meteorological droughts in southeastern USA[J].Natural Hazards,2017,86(3):1007-1038. [37] 沈国强,郑海峰,雷振锋.基于SPEI指数的1961-2014年东北地区气象干旱时空特征研究[J].生态学报,2017,37(17): 1-13. Shen G Q,Zheng H F,Lei Z F.Spatiotemporal analysis of meteorological drought(1961-2014) in Northeast China using a standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica,2017,37(17):1-13. (in Chinese) [38] 周丹,张勃,罗静,等.基于SPEI的华北地区近50年干旱发生强度的特征及成因分析[J].自然灾害学报,2014,23(4): 192-202. Zhou D,Zhang B,Luo J,et al.SPEI-based intensity characteristics and cause analysis of drought in north China during recent 50 years[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2014,23(4):192-202. (in Chinese) [39] 郑盛华,覃志豪,张文博.松嫩平原干旱变化特征及其对气候变化的响应[J].中国农业气象,2015,36(5):640-649. Zheng S H,Qin Z H,Zhang W B.Drought variation in songnen plain and its response to climate change[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2015,36(5):640-649.(in Chinese) [40] 张淑杰,张玉书,孙龙彧,等.东北地区玉米生育期干旱分布特征及其成因分析[J].中国农业气象,2013,34(3):350-357. Zhang S J,Zhang Y S,Sun L Y,et al.Analysis of distributional characteristics and primary causes of maize drought in Northeast China[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2013,34(3):350-357.(in Chinese) [41] Cook E R,Woodhouse C A,Eakin C M,et al.Long-term aridity changes in the western United States[J].Science, 2004,306(5698):1015-1018. [42] 刘珂,姜大膀.基于两种潜在蒸散发算法的SPEI对中国干湿变化的分析[J].大气科学,2015,39(1):23-36. Liu K,Jiang D B.Analysis of dryness/wetness over China using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index based on two evapotranspiration algorithms[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2015,39(1):23-36.(in Chinese) [43] Dewes C F,Rangwala I,Barsugli J J,et al.Drought risk assessment under climate change is sensitive to methodological choices for the estimation of evaporative demand[J].Plos One,2017,12(3):22. [44] 张建平,何永坤,王靖,等.不同发育期干旱对玉米籽粒形成与产量的影响模拟[J].中国农业气象,2015,36(1): 43-49. Zhang J P,He Y K,Wang J,et al.Impact simulation of drought at different growth stages on grain formation and yield of maize[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2015,36(1): 43-49.(in Chinese) [45] 刘妮雅,杨伟坤.美国农业保险发展历史、新政及其经验借鉴[J].世界农业,2016,(12):100-105. Liu N N,Yang W K.A lesson from American agricultural insurance’s development history,new policy and its experience[J]. World Agriculture,2016,(12):100-105.(in Chinese) [46] 李海明,胡瑞法,张世煌.外来种质对中国玉米生产的遗传贡献[J].中国农业科学,2005,38(11):46-54. Li H M,Hu R F,Zhang S H.The impacts of US and CGIAR’s Germplasm on maize production in China[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2005,38(11):46-54.(in Chinese)