Detrending Time Series Improves the Response of Salix matsudana’s Flowering to Climate in China’s Temperate Zone

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2018.09.001

Abstract

Abstract: In order to reveal the response and plasticity mechanism of the plant to climate change more accurately, we established the daily mean air temperature-based phenology model on the basis of detrending inter annual variation in climate and phenology and analyzed Salix matsudana’s first flowering response to climate change and plasticity mechanism at 40 stations in the temperate zone of China from 1986 to 2011.The results showed that 77.5% of first flowering at the stations in the temperate zone of China advanced, and the climate in the corresponding sensitive period became warmer (0.8±0.5℃·10y-1). 75% of sites phenology or temperature time series had a significant trend at 40 stations. Comparing with detrending and actual values, 17.5% of relationships changed. Before detrending, the correlation was not significant. However, the results showed significant negative correlations after detrending. The root-mean-square error of the simulation ( RMSE) decreased from 5.5 days to 4.9 days, indicating that the detrending method can improve the accuracy of the temperature response to phenology. Therefore, based on the temperature-phenology regression model with detrending time series, 92.5% of stations had a significant negative correlation between the first floweing and spring temperature at the sensitive period, and the linear response rate was -2.5±2.1 d·℃-1.

Key words: Climate change, Salix matsudana, First flowering, Time series, Detrending

ZHOU Xiao-huang, ZHENG Yan-jia, XU Lin, ZHANG Xu-ting, WEI Pei. Detrending Time Series Improves the Response of Salix matsudana’s Flowering to Climate in China’s Temperate Zone[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2018, 39(09): 559-566.

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