Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology ›› 2020, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (01): 51-60.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2020.01.006

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Relationship between Apple’s First Flower and Climate Factors in the Main Producing Areas of the Northern China

LIU Lu, WANG Jing-hong, FU Wei-dong, LUAN Qing, LI Man-hua   

  1. 1.Shaanxi Meteorological Service Center of Agricultural Remote Sensing and Economic Crops, Xi’an 710014, China；2. Xinjiang Agricultural Meteorological Station, Urumqi 830002；3. Shanxi Provincial Meteorological Center, Taiyuan 030006；4. Shandong Provincial Meteorological Center, Jinan 250031
  • Online:2020-01-20 Published:2020-01-20

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Abstract: Choosed Fushan, Wanrong, Luochuan, Xunyi and Akesu to respresent the Bohai Gulf, the Loess Plateau and Xinjiang apple producing areas, respectively, apple’s first flower data at the 5 sites during 1999?2018 were used to analyze their linear trend. Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression was applied to identify the impacts of mean temperature, mean geotemperature, precipitation, mean relative humidity and sunshine hours on first flower data at daily resolution. On the basis of which, forecasting models of first flower data were established by using stepwise regression. The results indicated that in the past 20 years, regional mean occurrence dates of apple's first flower were in April 7 to 20, and the interannual trend of first flower dates were not significant in all the five producing areas. Among the five climatic factors affecting the first flower period, temperature is the dominant factor. During the influence periods, the mean temperature and the mean geotemperature increase by 1℃, the first flower date will be significantly advanced by 2.31-4.10 days and 2.34-4.96 days; the precipitation increase by 1mm, the first flower date at Wanrong, Xunyi and Akesu would be postponed by 0.12-0.57 days; the relative humidity increase by 1 percent, the first flower date at Xunyi and Akesu would be postponed by 0.33 days and 0.51 days; the sunshine hours increase by 1 hour, the first flower date at Fushan and Wanrong would be advanced by 0.12 days and 0.07 days. On the basis of defining the key climatic factors affecting the first flower data of apple in the main producing areas of the northern China, forecasting models of first flower data were established, and the test showed that the ratio of the difference between the measured and predicted values less than 5 days was 80%?90%, which could be used for practical forecasting business and provide technical support for meteorological service of apple flowering period in China.

Key words: Fuji apple, First flower date, Partial least squares regression, Forecasting model, Climate change