Abstract: In order to improve capability of disaster prevention and mitigation of Shaanxi fruits industry,and take quantified frost damage forecast during apple blossom,the frost damage index model during apple blossom was established,based on apple phenological data and meteorological data in last 40 years from 7 representative meteorological stations.According to the model,the frost damage index was divided into five grades from strong to weak.Through testing with the Kth-order auto-regression,the predicting accuracy rate was 66.7%,which played a great role in frost damage forecasting during apple blossom.

Key words: Frost damage index during blossom, Frost damage index during blossom, Auto-regressive, Forecast