Trend Evaluation on Changes of Maize Yield in China under Global Warming by 1.5℃ and 2.0℃

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2018.12.001

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the simulation results from 5 climate models recommended by ISI-MIP under 4 RCP scenarios, the future climate situations were selected which are the approximate scenarios with global warming by 1.5℃ and 2.0℃. Applying DSSAT, the per unit yield changes of maize in China under global warming by 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ were analyzed and the spatial distributions of changes of maize yield were revealed relative to the baseline from 1985 to 2006. The results showed that, the yield reduction area under global warming by 2.0℃ was 6.2% more than that under global warming by 1.5℃; the ratios of yield reduction were separately 3.7% and 11.5% under global warming by 1.5℃ and 2.0℃; the risk of global warming by 2.0℃ was obviously higher than 1.5℃. The spatial distributions of yield changes were similar between 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ global warming, under which the area and magnitude of yield reduction were different. There were some regions with yield increasing under global warming by 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ in maize planting area of North China and Southwest China; most of the other regions in China would be mainly suffering to yield reduction; the largest reduction of maize yield would break out in Northwest China. Especially it was advantageous under global warming by 1.5℃ for maize production in North China; there was no distinct negative effect under global warming by 2.0℃ for maize production in North China. In other words, in the near future, there would be yield increasing potential for maize in North China with global warming.

Key words: RCP scenarios, Global warming by 1.5℃, Global warming by 2.0℃, Maize yield, Crop models, Paris Agreement

LI Kuo, XIONG Wei, PAN Jie, LIN Er-da, LI Ying-chun, HAN Xue. Trend Evaluation on Changes of Maize Yield in China under Global Warming by 1.5℃ and 2.0℃[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2018, 39(12): 765-777.

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