Abstract:

Based on the current 193 geographical distribution data and 34 environmental variables such as bioclimate, altitude, and radiation, the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was used to simulate potential distribution areas and change characteristics of Ampelopsis grossedentata under three kinds of future climate scenarios. In order to make full use of climate resources and provide scientific basis for Ampelopsis grossedentata planting, protection and industrial development. The results showed that: (1) the prediction accuracy of the MaxEnt model was relatively high, with an AUC value of 0.928 to 0.956. (2) The six key environmental variables that affect Ampelopsis grossedentata distribution were precipitation in the driest month, precipitation of driest quarter, annual rainfall, monthly average radiation in May, altitude, and minimum temperature of coldest month. The thresholds of key environmental variables in the highly suitable region were 30-90mm, 130-300mm, 1600-2450mm, 14000-15200KJ·m⁻²·d⁻¹, ＜1100m and 4.0-9.0℃, respectively. (3) Under the SSP126 scenario, the area of highly and moderately suitable region for Ampelopsis grossedentata could be increased. The area of suitable region from 2081 to 2100 was the largest at 1.822 million km². SSP245 scenario was not as effective as SSP126 scenario in increasing the region of suitable region. However, it was stronger than SSP585 scenario, which was mainly reflected by an increase in the highly suitable regions of Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian, Yunan, and Hunan that had degenerated, and an increase in the moderately suitable regions of southeastern Sichuan. Under the SSP585 scenario, some high-probability regions in Guizhou, Fujian, Guangdong and Jiangxi had gradually degenerated into medium-probability regions, and the middle-probability region in Hainan had degenerated into low-probability regions, and the total number of suitable regions in China from 2081 to 2100 was the lowest in history. (4) From 2041 to 2100, the total suitable region of Ampelopsis grossedentata only increased under the SSP126 climate scenario, and decreased under the SSP245 and SSP585 climate scenarios. Regardless of the climate scenario, the centroid of the total suitable area will move away from the current junction of Hunan and Guangxi, and it would move 46 to 80 km to the south of Hunan, slightly to the north and east.

Key words: Ampelopsis grossedentata, MaxEnt model, Potential distribution