Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (9): 1338-1349.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2025.09.011

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Suitable Regional Distribution of Blueberry in Liaoning Province Under Current and Future Climate Scenarios Based on MaxEnt Model

Blueberry is a dominant industry in the development of Liaoning’s agricultural economy. The climatic environment restricts the geographical distribution of blueberry cultivation. There is an urgent need to clarify the key climatic factors affecting the suitability of blueberry cultivation, as well as the spatial and temporal variability characteristics of the suitable areas for blueberry cultivation, so as to clarify the future development pattern of the blueberry industry in Liaoning province. According to the natural climatic characteristics and biological characteristics of blueberry planting areas, based on the three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs126, SSPs245 and SSPs370) proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the sixth assessment report. The maximum entropy method (MaxEnt) and five dominant climatic factors affecting blueberry planting were used to simulate and evaluate the current (2001−2020) and future (2021−2040, 2041−2060 and 2061−2080) blueberry potential planting suitability distribution areas in different periods, and divided into unsuitable areas, low suitable areas, medium suitable areas and high suitable region. The trends of the blueberry suitability region and its response to climate change were compared for each SSP. The results showed that in the current period, the total suitable area of blueberry in Liaoning was 13164km2 , and the high suitable area was 4057km2 , which was mainly located in the central and southern parts of Dandong, northeastern part of Dalian and southeastern part of Anshan. In the context of future climate, the key bioclimatic variables affecting the distribution of potentially suitable blueberry areas were the standard deviation of temperature seasonal variability, the maximum temperature in the warmest month, the mean temperature in the driest quarter, the annual precipitation and the precipitation in the driest quarter. In the context of the future climate of SSPs126, SSPs245 and SSPs370, the suitable area for blueberry cultivation in Liaoning had
expanded by 3.5%, 9.3% and 12.5%, respectively, every 20 years. Overall, climate change had favored the expansion of suitable areas for blueberry cultivation, with a gradual migration to the west and north. Therefore, it should pay attention to the impact of climate change on the development of the blueberry industry, plan the production layout rationally, and enhance the development advantages of the blueberry industry in Liaoning.
  

  1. 1. Dandong City Bureau of Meteorology, Dandong 118000, China; 2. Liaoning Strawberry Blueberry Meteorological Service Center,
    Dandong 118000; 3. Climate Center of Liaoning Province, Shenyang 110166; 4. Panjin National Climate Observatory, Panjin 124000
  • Received:2024-10-30 Online:2025-09-20 Published:2025-09-18

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