Abstract: Based on daily observational data from 106 national baseline weather stations in Xinjiang during July to August of the period 1994 to 2023, the risk index of high temperature disaster causing factors in the region was analyzed, combining with crop exposure index and disaster prevention capacity, to construct a high temperature disaster risk assessment model. Subsequently, a comprehensive risk zoning of high temperature disaster was developed to identify high risk areas and provide a reference for regional agricultural disaster prevention and control. The results showed that high temperature processes during the cotton flowering and boll setting phases in Xinjiang from 1994 to 2023 exhibited distinct regional difference, the risk of high temperature disaster causing factors generally exhibited a spatial pattern of being lower in high altitude areas while higher in basins and plains. High exposure areas mainly concentrated in major cotton−growing regions including Bortala prefecture, Kuitun, Korla, Aksu and parts of Kashger. Most cotton areas in Xinjiang had low disaster prevention capability, while stronger capabilities existed in highly urbanized central cities. High risk areas for comprehensive high temperature disaster were mainly distributed across central Bortala, south and central Tacheng, Turpan, Hami and key cotton−growing areas in southern Xinjiang. For these high risk regions, scientific prevention measures should be applied to reduce high temperature disaster losses and ensure sustainable cotton production development in Xinjiang.

Key words: Cotton, Flowering and boll setting stage, High temperature disaster, Risk assessment model