Flood Risk Assessment and Zoning for Rice in Southwest China

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2016.05.009

Abstract

Abstract: As the main crop in Southwest China (Sichuan, Chongqing, Guizhou and Yunnan province), rice is widely accepted to be seriously threatened by the flood disaster. Agro-flood risk analysis is helpful for improving the ability of regional disaster management and reducing potential flood risk. In this study, the rice flood risk was analyzed and then zoned using the integrated rice flood risk assessment model including hazard, exposure, sensitivity, and flood prevention and mitigation ability, and based on a data set of the daily rainfall data in 193 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2012, rice production data in 396 counties including plant and yield data from 1981 to 2012, the phenophase data of rice from 17 agrometeorological stations and geographic data in Southwest China. The results indicated that flood hazard risk probabilities variated with phenophase and hazard level. High flood hazard risk happened in transplanting-tillering stage, followed by jointing-booting and tasselling-maturity stages. High-risk areas of flood hazard in whole rice growth stage was detected to be located in south and northeast areas of Yunnan, southern Guizhou, and Chengdu, Meishan and Deyang in Sichuan province. High and sub high exposure zones were mainly located in northeast part of Sichuan province and Chongqing. Subsequently, high and sub high sensitive zones were mainly found in north Yunnan province, south Sichuan province and southeast Guizhou province. Low flood prevention and mitigation zones were located in parts of Guizhou. Finally, the high and sub high zones for integrated rice flood risk were detected in northeast Sichuan province, south Guizhou province and south part of Yunnan province, while south Chongqing and north Yunnan were recognized with low rice flood risk.

Key words: Flood disaster, Agrometeorology, Risk analysis, Zoning, Single cropping rice

YANG Jian-ying, HUO Zhi-guo, WU Li, ZHANG Gui-xiang, WANG Tian-ying. Flood Risk Assessment and Zoning for Rice in Southwest China[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2016, 37(05): 564-577.

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