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20 February 2015, Volume 36 Issue 01

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Variation of Temperature and Frost free Period in Different Time Scales in Northeast China

HU Qi，PAN Xue biao，ZHANG Dan，Yang Ning，Li Qiu yue，SHAO Chang xiu

2015, 36(01):  2-8.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.01.001

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Based on observed data from 71 meteorological stations in Northeast China from 1961 to 2012，the variation of temperature and frost free period in decade scale，annual scale，month scale，and tenday scale，were analyzed.The results showed that both contour lines of temperature and frostfreeperiod moved northward in decade scale，and maximum value occurred in 1980-1999.Compared with 1961-1979，contour line of 3℃ temperature moved northward about 1latitude，and the area of temperature over 3℃ increased 1.14×10.5km2，and contour line of 155d frost free moved northward about 2.4 latitudes，and the area of frostfree 155d increased 2.02×10.5km2.The average temperature increasing rate in Northeast China was 0.30℃10y-1，and maximum increasing in winter at the rate of0.47℃10y-1.The frost free period increasing rate was 3.5d10y-1，and first/latest frost date delayed/advanced 8.1d and 9.8d，respectively.The temperature increasingrate in February was 0.8℃10y-1，which was key factor to large temperature increasing in winter.In which the final 10 days in February temperature increasing rate was 1.00℃10y-1.Climate warming might have some impacts on agricultural production and agro climatic zone in Northeast China，the results could provide references forheat resources utilization and crop cultivation under climate change.

The Spatial and Temporal Variations of the Active Accumulated Temperature and Their Impacts on the Rice Yield in Heilongjiang Province of China

Li Ying，Ma Shi ming

2015, 36(01):  9-16.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.01.002

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The active accumulated temperature（≥10℃）at the Heilongjiang province and its surrounding areas was calculated based on Berkeley Earths latitudinal/longitudinal gridded land surface daily average air temperature dataset from 1951 to 2012.The Empirical Orthogonal Function（EOF）method was used to examine spatial and temporal variations of the active accumulated temperature anomaly in the interdecadal and interannual time scales and their impact on the rice yield of Heilongjiang province.The results show that the long term trend of the accumulated temperature anomaly in the interdecadal variations can be divided into three main phases：stationary phase Ι（1951-1993），transition phase（1993-2000）and stationary phase Ⅱ（2000-2012）.The average accumulated temperatures of the three phases are increasing as the phases progress.The average accumulated temperature of stationary phase Ⅱ is generally more than 200℃·d higher than that of stationary phase Ι in most of the Heilongjiang areas.The largest accumulated temperature increases were about 240～320℃·d in the southwestern areas of the province.During the stationary phase Ⅱ period，the 2100℃·d line of the accumulated temperature had moved across the Heihe area to reach the Daxinganling mountain range，indicating the rice has been able to grow in the Heihe area where the accumulated temperature was normally not high enough to grow rice in the past.In addition，there is quasibiennial oscillation in the yearly accumulated temperature and in the rice yield per hectare.The correlation analysis shows the interannual variations in the yearly accumulated temperature have significant effects on the yearly rice yield in Harbin，Qiqihar，Daqing，Suihua，Yichun and Jiamusi areas，but have little effect on the rice yield in the southern part of the Heilongjiang province such as Shangzhi，Mudanjiang and Jixi areas．

Simulation of Canopy Resistance for Paddy Rice Based on PenmanMonteith Model

ZHAO Hua，SHEN Shuang he，HUA Rong qiang，TAO Su lin，ZHANG Xue song

2015, 36(01):  17-23.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.01.003

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A model simulating the relationship between rice canopy surface resistance（rc）and meteorological as well as environmental factors（net solar radiation，air temperature，saturated vapour pressure deficit and soil moisture）was established in Nanjing area from 2012 to 2013.Considering the canopy surface resistance parameterization of Penman Monteith formula，this model specifically referenced Jarvis stomatal resistance model and compared the simulated results with observed evapotranspiration by lysimeter in order to check the accuracy of the model.The results showed that the agreement indices of the rice canopy surface resistance model were 0.991 for 2012 and 0.810 for 2013.It was shown that the model was capable of modeling paddy field water consumption with agreement index of 0.967 and 0.953，respectively when combining the model with PenmanMonteith formula.Also，sensitivity analysis of the model showed that saturated vapour pressure deficit（a2）had a great impact on the model.As a result，this model can help simplify the calculation of canopy resistance and avoid errors in observation，which can be used as one of the ways to calculate paddy field water consumption.

Error Analysis on Evapotranspiration Estimation of Paddy Rice Field by Penman Monteith Model

LIU Bin，HU Ji chao，ZHAO Xiu lan，ZHANG Xue song，ZHANG Fu cun

2015, 36(01):  24-32.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.01.004

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Based on the features of the paddy rice field environment and PenmanMonteith model，the error contribution of soil heat flux，storage heat term，surface resistance and aerodynamic resistance to the estimation of evapotranspiration were analyzed theoretically by differential error method.Then the modified PenmanMonteith model was obtained with considering soil and water heat storage，atmospheric stability correction，and its simulated values were compared with those of the original model.The results showed that in accuracy of 5% net radiation，10% soil heat flux，100% heat storage，20% surface resistance and 20% aerodynamic resistance led to 26.8%，5.36%，53.6 %，11.11% and 3.17% the error of evapotranspiration estimation according to normal ordering relationships，respectively.Heat storage of 10cm depth soil layer and water layer of paddy rice field decreased with the development of 4 growing stages including transplantingjointing stage，jointingtasseling stage，tasselingfilling stage and maturing stage.The effects of heat storage of water layer on the estimation of evapotranspiratin in the former 2 stages were greater than that of latter 2 stages.Compared with the values simulated by original model，the evapotranspiration simulated values improved 0.04-0.073，0.02-0.11mm·h-1 only with soil heat storage correction and 0.006-0.038，0.003-0.015mm·h-1 only with water heat storage correction during 7 ：00-14：00.Only through aerodynamic resistance correction，the simulating error decreased 0.00064，0.0134，0.0055，0.0024mm·h-1 on average during 4 growing stages.The results could provide scientific reference so as to improve the accuracy of simulating paddy field evapotranspiration．

Analysis of the Reference Evapotranspiration Change and Climate Factors Contribution During Growing Season in Linghe Basin of Liaoning Province

XU Xing juan，CHEN Tao tao，WU Qi，WANG Zi huang，ZHENG Jun lin，CHI Dao cai

2015, 36(01):  33-42.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.01.005

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Based on the daily meteorological dataset during 1965 to 2006 from 10 meteorological stations in Linghe basin of Liaoning province，the reference evapotranspiration（ET0）was calculated using P-M equation recommended by FAO.And with the analysis of variation trend relating to meteorological elements and ET0 during growing season（from April to September），the contribution to ET0 change made by meteorological alteration was also discussed with a method based on sensitivity coefficient.The results showed that the average value of ET0 during growing season in Linghe basin was 706.73mm and it was significantly reducing at a speed of 21.46mm·10y-1in the past 42 years（P<0.01）.During the whole season，the ET0 in May accounted for the most while that in Sep.came the least.The high value of ET0 concentrated in Chaoyang and Yangshan and the low value was in Yixian.The average solar radiation of whole growing season in the study area was declining at a speed of 0.293MJ·m-2·d-1·10y-1.Except in Fuxin station，the wind speed was significantly decreasing（P<0.01）.Under the background of global warming，the average temperature of Linghe basin in growing season during the past 42 years was increasing at a speed of 0.289℃·10y-1 and the trend was obvious in April and September（P<0.05）while that was relative stable in July.The change of relative humidity during growing season in the study area was not serious.The sensitivity analysis results showed that the sensitivity order of average ET0 in Linghe basin to different meteorological elements in growing season was: solar radiation >relative humidity>wind speed>temperature.But as to contribution value，the significantly changed wind speed was the most important factor to ET0 variation，followed by solar radiation，and the temperature did the least to ET0 variation.Meanwhile，the contribution of solar radiation and wind speed change to ET0 variation in western basin was greater，and smaller in the east，while that of temperature showed a progressive decrease tendency from the middle to both sides on the whole.The contribution of relative humidity change to ET0 alteration was scattered on spatial distribution.

Impact Simulation of Drought at Different Growth Stages on Grain Formation and Yield of Maize

ZHANG Jian ping，HE Yong kun，WANG Jing，ZHAO Yan xia，WANG Chun yi

2015, 36(01):  43-49.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.01.006

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In order to explore the impacts of drought occurred in single development stage and two development stages respectively on grain formation and yield of maize，the grain formation and yield were simulated by WOFOST under different drought grades in seedling stage and jointing stage. The drought grades were indicated by the number of no rain days. The results showed that 10d to 40d continuous drought occurred in single development stage affected on grain filling and yield formation. The longer the drought period was，the larger yield reduction rate got. The reduction rate was 3.24% and 3.5%，7.89% and 8.31%，12.33% and 13.71%，21.6% and 23.94% when continuous drought for 10d，20d，30d and 40d，occurred in the seedling stage and the jointing stage，respectively. The yield reduction rate was 1.77%，9.02%，18.93% and 31.28% when continuous drought for 5d，10d，15d and 20d occurred both at seedling stage and jointing stage. The results indicated that yield reduction was more significant when drought occurred at the jointing stage than that at the seedling stage. The reduction rate under the simultaneous drought both seedling stage and the jointing stage was higher than the sum of drought at individual development stage. The results could provide scientific basis for maize planting and drought disaster mitigation in Southwest China.

Revision on Meteorological Indices of Florescence Frost Disaster for Fuji Apple in Shaanxi Province

WANG Jing hong，LIU Lu，GAO Feng，BAI Qin feng，GUO Liang

2015, 36(01):  50-56.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.01.007

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Taking flowering branches from 8-10 years old Fuji apple tree in Shaanxi province as materials，making the ovary freezing with artificial climate box，the sample branches were frozen in the temperature range of-5℃ to 10℃，and the changing curves of temperature to ovary tissue freezing and time were obtained，on which determined super cooling point and the freezing point. 7 groups freezing rates of Fuji apple flowers were found with different low temperature and duration tests in artificial climate box，taking the low temperature as reference，on which determined the preliminary apple florescence freezing indices.These indices were revised by the self repair effect factor，which was found in historical disaster survey，and then the new apple florescence freezing indices was established.The results showed that the super cooling point of Fuji apple flower was-2.5℃ to-4.0℃，the apple florescence freezing rate was related with low temperature intensity and its duration，and the lower temperature or the longer duration，the higher frost rate.Besides，some frozen flowers cloud bear fruit in the future，and this self repair ability cloud reduce 18 percent preliminary freezing rate.Based on these results，the new weather indices of Fuji apple florescence freezing disaster were established. By comparison，the new indices were more consistent than the original indices，and the higher frost level，the higher agreement degree．

Study on Characteristics and Warning Signals of Chilling in May in Double Cropping Rice Area of Hunan Province

ZHANG Chao，WANG Li juan，LU Kui dong

2015, 36(01):  57-66.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.01.008

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Based on daily temperature data of May from 66 meteorological stations in double cropping rice area of Hunan province during 1961-2013，the intensity index of chilling in May（IICM）was calculated，which was used to analyze the characteristics of temporal and spatial distribution and intensity of chilling in May.The method of physical decomposition of atmospheric variables was used to find possible precursors to indicate chilling process in May.The results showed that in the studied area the distribution of chilling in May was less in the south than that in the north and there were three main types: whole province，north middle Hunan，north Hunan.The intensity index of eighty percent of chilling processes in May were moderate or above and fifty percent of chilling processes in May effected on seventy percent of stations in double cropping rice area. During the study，fourteen processes occupied the negative center of temperature transient anomalies on the 850hPa level and the negative center of geopotential height transient anomalies on the 300hPa level，respectively.The negative center of temperature transient anomalies on the 850hPa level could be traced as precursors to indicate the occurrence of chilling process in May over 5-10 days in advance.The moving track of temperature transient anomalies had three，such as west road，northwest road and east road which was primary moving track.The chilling processes in May were north Hunan type mainly when the moving track was east road and generally they were north middle Hunan type when the moving track was north west road.

Impact Assessment on High Temperature Damage to Early Rice at Filling Milk Stage in Jiangxi Province

TIAN Jun，CUI Hai jian

2015, 36(01):  67-73.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.01.009

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Based on observed data from 14 agricultural meteorological stations in Jiangxi province from 2000 to 2013，and daily maximum temperature data from last 10 days in June to early 10 days in July，the main influence factors and assessment model were established. The model was verified by rice yield and investigated disaster data from 2000 to 2012 and experiment data during 2012-2013. The results showed that the main influence factors of high temperature damage to rice were increasing extent of temperature，extreme maximum temperature and high temperature duration. Based on this，the assessment model of high temperature damage was established by using principal component analysis method，and tested through historic back and sowing rice by stage.The testing results indicated that the accurate rate of model was higher，which could be used to evaluate impact quantitatively of high temperature damage to rice.The assessment factors could be defined as severe damage when HTDI≥0.60，the yield reduction rate of early rice was more than 10%; moderate damage when 0.30≤HTDI<0.60，the yield reduction rate of early rice was between 5%-10%;slight damage when 0.10≤HTDI<0.30，the yield reduction rate of early rice was less than 5%.

Analysis on Occurrence Pattern and Migratory Paths of Brown Plant hopper in Guangxi Province

TANG Guang tian，BAO Yun xuan

2015, 36(01):  74-82.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.01.010

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Based on the lighting trap catches of brown plant hopper （BPH），Nilaparvata lugens （Stl） data from 5 plant protection stations at Longzhou，Yulin，Laibin，Yongfu and Xingan in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region during 1991-2012，the BPH occurrence pattern was summarized.The BPH backward trajeclories on peak days was simulated by HYSPLIT and the primary BPH migration paths into Guangxi were analyzed.The results showed that the BPH immigration beginning date and the first immigration peak date from 5 stations were advanced，with the rates of 1.1d·10y-1 and 1.8d·10y-1 respectively in average.But the immigration ending date was postponed， with the rate of 2.6d·10y-1 in average. The southerly path （including the southwest path，the south path and southeast path） was the main path of BPH immigration in spring and summer，and it accounted for more than 94% of the total immigration events.The Indochina Peninsula，Hainan Island and Guangdong Province were the main pest sources of BPH.The back immigration path of BPH in autumn was mainly northeast path，which accounted for 89% of the total immigration events.The main pest sources of BPH immigration in autumn were Jiangxi Province，Hunan Province and Guangdong Province.BPH immigration occurred seriously when the south airflow took the dominant place at 850hPa in July，but BPH immigration decreased remarkable when the north airflow prevailed.Accordingly，when there was the prevailing north airflow at 925hPa in September，it was advantageous to the immigration southward of BPH population into the Guangxi from Jiangxi，Hunan and the other provinces in the north side. Conversely，BPH landing heads reduced obviously when the south airflow prevailed at this level．

Study on Spatio temporal Pattern of Hail Disaster in China Mainland From 1950 to 2009

ZHAO Jin tao，YUE Yao jie，WANG Jing ai，YIN Yuan yuan，FENG Hong ying

2015, 36(01):  83-92.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.01.011

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By widely gathering multisources of hail disaster information on county level of China mainland from 1950 to 2009，the present research established a hail hazard database.For revealing the variation rules of spatio temporal pattern of hail hazard，the hail disaster occurrence time，range and frequency for nearly 60 years were statistical analyzed by using GIS technology.Some significant results were gained.（1）The spatial distribution of hail disaster in China mainland presents the characteristic of one belt and multi centers.The belt from northeast to southwest China is the major hail disaster affect area，and eight hail disaster centers，include the Loess Plateau，Bohai Rim，Northeast Plain，Yunnan Guizhou Plateau，Jianghuai Plain，Aksu Prefecture in Xinjiang，eastern Qinghai and Central China，are the main areas of hail disaster occurs.（2）The hail disasters occurrence have an obvious seasonal change.In the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River and South China mainland，hail disasters mainly concentrated in the time period from February to April，but from May to September in other regions.The hail belt has a promotion from south to north and then a retreat from north to south，accompany with the month changes from the beginning to the end of the year.（3）Before 1987，the county numbers occur hail disasters showed overall upward trend，then presented a downward trend after 1987.In general，the county numbers occur hail disasters were fairly high from 1970s to 1990s than other periods.

Remote Recognition and Growth Monitoring of Winter Wheat in Key Stages Based on S G Filter in Guanzhong Region

QUAN Wen ting，ZHOU Hui，LI Hong mei，YI Wan juan，Li Hua long

2015, 36(01):  93-99.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.01.012

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The NDVI time series was constructed by using Savitzky Golay filter method based on SPOT VGT S10 product data.The temporal variation of the NDVI values during reviving stage and tasseling stage of winter wheat was obtained.The temporal variation of NDVI were applied for detecting the reviving stage and the tasseling stage of winter wheat in Guanzhong region in Shaanxi province.Compared with the field measurements，the prediction uncertainty of remote sensing approach was within20d，and the corresponding RMSE values of reviving stage and tasseling stage were 14.29d and 9.16d，respectively.This meant remote recognition to winter wheat during reviving stage and tasseling stage based on SPOT VGT data was available.Combing with HJ satellite data，the deference model was used to study the winter wheat growth in 2012，the results showed that the winter wheat growth in 2012 was better than 2011 in Weinan region，which was consistence with the in situ measurements.Based on HJ data，the satellite derived spatial distributing veins of winter wheat growth were clear，and using the plant area of winter wheat extracted from the same satellite data as the mask to exclude the nonwinter wheat region could reduce the uncertainty generated during the data resample procedure.The results indicated that HJ data was pronounced advantage for winter wheat growth monitoring．

Assessment and Zoning of Storm Flood Disaster Risk to Winter Vegetables in Hainan Island

ZOU Hai ping，CHEN Hui lin，LI Wei guang，CHEN Xiao min

2015, 36(01):  100-107.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.01.013

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Based on the system of agrometeorological disaster，disaster risk theory and materials including daily precipitation data（from September to November） of 18 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2012，geographic information data and data of cultivated area，winter vegetables planting area in Hainan Island，the hazards of disaster causing factors and sensitivity of disaster pregnant environments and vulnerability of storm flood disaster to winter vegetables in Hainan Island were constructed and divided by using GIS and methods of weighting and natural breaks.Furthermore，with the help of the 3 indices，a comprehensive risk index model of storm flood disaster to winter vegetables was constructed to zone the risk of storm flood disaster to winter vegetables in Hainan Island.The results showed that the highest and second highest risk zones of storm flood disaster to winter vegetables were located in the northeastern and eastern areas of Hainan Island such as Wanning， Qionghai，Tunchang and Lingshui.The lowest and secondlowest risk zones were located in the western areas.Actual disaster results were matched with risking zone，which provides scientific basis for reducing and avoiding disaster risk and rational production layout of winter vegetables in Hainan Island．

Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Vegetation Cover and Its Relationship With Climate Factors in Shaanxi Province

QIN Chao，LI Jun yi，CHEN Hong fei，BAO Jun wei，SONG Guang fei

2015, 36(01):  108-114.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.01.014

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Based on SPOT VGT NDVI data during 2000-2012，temporal and spatial evolution of vegetation cover and its relationship with climate factors in Shaanxi province were analyzed by using difference and correlation analysis method.The results showed that the vegetation improvement area were significant greater than the degradation area，the increased area of vegetation coverage was mainly distributed in sandstorm transition region and the Loess Plateau in Shaanxi province.The decreased area was mainly distributed in Guanzhong Plain region and parts of southern Shaanxi province.There was significant relationship between monthly average NDVI and monthly average precipitation and temperature（P<0.01），with the correlation coefficients 0.875 and 0.885.The NDVI growth rate in Shaanxi province was 0.109·10y-1，which indicated that the ecological restoration of vegetation construction made progress.In addition，the NDVI showed obvious seasonal variation.The NDVI developed faster in summer and autumn than that in winter，but the responses of vegetation variation to precipitation and temperature had time lag．