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20 April 2015, Volume 36 Issue 02

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Simulation Analysis of Winter Agricultural Climatic Resources Over Guangxi Based on PRECIS

LIANG Jun，LIU Yi jiang，LIANG Ju，XU Yinlong

2015, 36(02):  119-128.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.02.001

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In this study， the PRECIS （Providing Regional Climate for Impact Study） regional climate modeling system from Hadley Center/UK Met Office was used to generate the winter climate scenario dataset over Guangxi. The simulated temperature， precipitation and radiative flux were corrected with different methods based on the observed data from 92 observatories neighbor with model wind grids over Guangxi. Then the corrected data were used to assess/project the past， present and future status of winter climatic resources over Guangxi. The results showed positive zonal gradient features in the distributions of thermal and radiative resources， and positive meridional gradient features in the precipitation distribution. Under the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios， the projection showed increase trends of 0.33℃10y-1and 0.29℃10y-1 respectively in the surface air temperature during 1961-2100. The simulation showed slight changes in precipitation with trends of-0.2mm10y-1 under A2 scenario， while the significant decrease trend of-4.1mm10y-1 was showed under B2 scenario. The simulated radiative flux showed general increases under both scenarios. In general， the projection of future surface air temperature and radiative flux would provide better thermal/radiative conditions for developing winter crop planting in Guangxi， while the projected water conditions would bring increased disadvantages．

Response of Soil Temperature to Air Temperature Change in Tibet Plateau

ZHOU Kanshe， LUO Suxuan， DU Jun， JIAN Jun， SHI Lei

2015, 36(02):  129-138.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.02.002

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Based on the observed data of monthly soil temperature in different depth and air temperature from 8 representative meteorological stations in Tibet Plateau from 1971 to 2013， by using the linear trend analysis method and Mann-Kendall method， the changing tendency of annual and seasonal soil temperatures and air temperature， the difference of soil and air temperature （Ts-Ta）， and the abrupt change relationship between soil temperatures and air temperature were analyzed， the trend of soil temperatures in the future was predicated. The results showed that annual shallow soil temperature （SST） increased significantly （P＜0.05）， in which those in western and central of Tibet Plateau were more significant than that of in eastern， seasonal soil temperature increased significantly， and that in winter and spring were more significant than that of in summer and autumn. Deep soil temperature（DST） increased significantly except for in Qamdo （P＜0.05）， even much more than shallow soil temperature in Senggecangbu， Xigaze and Lhasa. The annual difference of SST and air temperature was bigger than DST in Senggecangbu， and similar to that of in Xigaze and Lhasa before 1990s， but it was equaled to that of DST after 1990s. The situation in Qamdo was that SST lower than that of DST before 1980s， and higher than DST after 1980s. There was extremely significant positive correlation between average annual soil temperature in different depth and average annual air temperature， and there was significant positive correlation among soil temperature in different depth （P＜0.01）. It was predicted that soil temperatures increased significantly in the future， and increasing range of soil temperature was higher than that of air temperature. It was projected that the soil temperatures in Qamdo， Lhasa and Bome could be approached that of in Baxoi， Tsedang and Zayu by the end of the twenty-first century， respectivel， which means all of the sites could be moved one latitude toward south．

Climate Change and its Impacts on Distribution Pattern of Grassland Types inInner Mongolia

Borjigin Suld， Yang Jie， Wan Zhiqiang，Gu Rui，Yan Yulong，Gao Qingzhu

2015, 36(02):  139-148.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.02.003

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Based on the meteorological data in the Inner Mongolia autonomous region and Holdridge life zone classification climate system， we analyzed the change characteristics of temperature and precipitation from 1962 to 2011， compared the grassland types distribution during the 1962s （1962-1971） and the beginning of the 21st century （2002-2011）， explored the impact of climate change on potential distribution of grassland types in Inner Mongolia. The results showed that during 1962-2011， the annual and growing seasonal mean temperatures were risen significantly in the research area（P<0.05）， and the time of abrupt temperature change happened in 1990， in growing season the time delayed for 5 years than the annual mean temperature change. The precipitation change in forest steppe and typical steppe area showed a decreasing trend （2002-2006） after an increasing at first （1992-2002） （P<0.05）， while there was no significant change in desert steppe and desert area; The fluctuation of precipitation in the eastern area was greater than the western Inner Mongolia. The transition area of the typical steppe to desert steppe gradually expanded in past 50 years， while the forest steppe also had a change trend to typical steppe， contrast the temporal and spatial variation of temperature and precipitation with the distribution change of grassland types by climate distribution indicators， the impacts of precipitation change on grassland distribution was more significant than temperature in Inner Mongolia. The reducing of growing seasonal precipitation and resulting soil severe drought in a nongrowing season， and also increasing temperature made the higher evapotranspiration， would be impact the distribution of grassland ecosystem in Inner Mongolia．

Effects of Ecological Environment on Tobacco Agronomic Traits and Chlorophyll Fluorescence Characteristics

YU Lingxiang， ZHU Yong， ZHONG Chu， ZHAO Ze， HUANG Wei， ZHA Hongbo， LU Weikun

2015, 36(02):  149-154.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.02.004

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Six tobacco varieties were used for the field experiment which was carried out at Zhaoyang district， Qiaojia county， and Zhenxiong county of Zhaotong city in Yunnan province. Agronomic characteristics differences among varieties at different ecoenvironments were compared， and the character of fluorescence was measured by portable modulated chlorophyll fluorometer Mini-PAM. The results showed that tobacco leaf was the most sensitive organ in response to environment. Because of the plenty of rainfall and abundant solar radiation， leaf length， leaf width and leaf area of tobacco in Qiaojia were bigger than that in Zhaoyang and Zhenxiong. Because of the relatively heavy arid climate in Zhenxiong in early and middle July， maximum photochemical quantum yield and effective photochemical quantum yield of almost all varieties in this experimental site were the lowest. Differences of actual photochemical quantum yield and electron transfer rate of K326 and Yunyan 203 among the 3 experimental sites were consistent， indicating the presence of similar mechanisms in response to the environment in light energy capture and electron transport of the two varieties. NPQ of all varieties were different from each other in the points， reflecting the diversity and plasticity of environmental adaptation.

Simulation Performance of a Ventilated Greenhouse Based on CFD Technology

FANG Hui， YANG Qichang， ZHANG Yi， LU Wei， ZHOU Bo， ZHOU Sheng

2015, 36(02):  155-160.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.02.005

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Simulation model of the airflow and temperature in a naturally ventilated Chinese solar greenhouse was established by using a computational fluid dynamics （CFD） software. The model was tested by comparing observed data and simulated data. The distribution of temperature and airflow inside greenhouse was analyzed through the validated two-dimensional CFD model. The results showed that， when the top vent opened， the cold air outside went into the greenhouse from the lower of vent and went out from the upper of the vent. The airflow in greenhouse was relative low， as mainly affected by heat pressure. When the bottom vent opened， the cold air outside went into the greenhouse from the lower of vent and went out from the upper of the vent， and the airflow below the height of 0.5m in greenhouse was stronger. The distribution of temperature and airflow was similar. When both top and bottom vents opened， the cold air went into greenhouse from bottom vent and went out from top vent， and the airflow at vent was strongest. When only one vent （top or bottom） opened， the average temperature in the greenhouse was 300.0K， however the temperature inside was more even when the top vent opened. When both vents of top and bottom opened， the average temperature in the greenhouse was 299.0K， which was better for temperature decreasing than only one bent opening．

Field Experiment on Crop Evapotranspiration Measurements via Lysimeters With Different Scales

YANG Bingyu， SHEN Shuanghe， ZHANG Fucun， TAO Sulin， WANG Xiumin， ZHAO Hua

2015, 36(02):  161-169.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.02.006

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Weighting lysimeters are standard techniques for the measurement of crop evapotranspiration （ET） but application of large scale lysimeters to deal with the repeated experiments with different treatments is of some difficulties due to their installation method with single unit. Lysimeters with small scales are suitable to settle this problem， yet the feasibility of them is still an ongoing topic of research. In this study， lysimeters with area scales of 1m2（Small scale Lysimeters， SL）， 2m2（Middle scale Lysimeters， ML） and 4m2（Large scale Lysimeters， LL） were applied for continuous measurement of ET in entire growing season of winter wheat （sowed on Nov.21， 2012 and harvested on Jun.20， 2013） and rice （transplanted on Jun.22， 2013 and harvested on Oct.28， 2013）. ET measured on norainfall days was then analyzed for the feasibility comparison of lysimeters with different scales. Results indicated that （1） diurnal variation of ET with large fluctuations was observed by SL in the growing season of winter wheat and rice while relatively stable variations by ML and LL and their variation trends were consistent. （2） Correlation relationship between Daily ET from ML and LL was much more significant than the correlations between that from SL and LL. （3） SL could be applied to monitor the total and mean daily ET in rice growing season since the observed daily ET from SL were almost equal to that from LL. However， daily ET observed by ML in the growing season both of winter wheat and rice were lower than that by LL due to the lower ET observed after jointing stage for the two crops．

Effects of Chemical Regulators on Culm Lodging Resistance,Plant Uniformity and Yield of Winter Wheat

WANG Cheng yu， LI Jing， ZHANG Yi， LI Jincai， WEI Fengzhen

2015, 36(02):  170-177.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.02.007

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In 2008/2009 and 2009/2010 winter wheat growing seasons， experiments were conducted in experimental field to study the effects of chemical regulators on culm lodging resistance， plant uniformity， and winter wheat grain yield. Three treatments including in the experiments， i.e.， spraying 15% paclobutrazol wettable powders （PP333， 600g·ha-1）， 50% chormequat water aqua （CCC， 1000mL·ha-1）， combined PP333 with CCC （P+C， 300g·ha-1PP333 and 1000mL·ha-1 CCC）， and spraying water as control （CK） at recovery stage on 1st March. Plant height （PH）， culm height of gravity center （CHGC）， length of the 2nd basal internode （L）， outer diameter of the 2nd basal internode （OD）， wall thickness（WT）， filling degree （FD）， and culm mechanical strength （CMS）were investigated， and cellulose content， lignin content， nitrogen content， and C/N ratio of the 2nd basal internode were determined at milkripe stage; Meanwhile， the area of lodging was observed and culm lodging resistance index （CLRI） and lodging rate （LR） were calculated at maturity stage， and winter wheat grain yield and the relationship between the grain yield and plant uniformity was analyzed by spikes test. The results indicated that PH， L， and CHGC were reduced， and OD， WT， FD， CMS of the 2nd basal internode were increased in P+C treatment， then followed by PP333， and the lowest was CCC. As the indices of lodging resistance， the highest value of cellulose content， lignin content， C/N ratio was observed in P+C， then followed by PP333， and the lowest value was found in CCC. The CLRI was the highest in P+C treatment， followed by PP333， and the lowest was found in CCC treatment; Therere no lodging was found in both P+C and PP333 treatments， and the lodging rates in 2008/2009 and 2009/2010 winter wheat growing seasons were 11.3% and 6.7%， respectively. The plant uniformity was significantly higher in P+C than in CK， then followed by PP333， and the lowest was found in CCC. The same rule was found in grain yield， and a significant positive correlation between grain yields and the uniformities of PH， spike length， number of spikelet per spike， and spike weight was found in P+C which gained the highest yield. Therefore， with plant uniformity enhanced， the winter wheat grain yield increased．

Calibration of Neutron Probe Measuring Sandy Soil Moisture and Analysis of Defining the Test Parameters

LIU Qiaoling，LIU Xiaoyan，LIU Tingxi，DUAN Limin，YUE Cuitong

2015, 36(02):  178-186.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.02.008

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Six sandy soil sites of Horqin Sandy Land were selected for neutron probe calibration，which was used for measuring soil moisture. Scatter diagram screening and threedot smoothing methods were used for processing soil volumetric moisture data. In order to define the testing parameters，linear and nonlinear calibration models were applied to analyze systematically the calibrated results，which influenced by neutron probe counting time，installation stable time，rainfall and irrigation. The calibrated equation of sandy soils was established through simulation and verification. The results showed that polynomial calibration was more suitable for top sandy soil（0 to 30cm）. Soil with different moisture could be unified calibration because of sandy soil had little effect on the neutron probe readings. The neutron probe could installed stably at least after 7 days，and the errors would be small especially calibrating after one or two heavy rainfalls. 64 seconds of counting time was better when calibrating and measuring. The results would be better if the counting time increased. Under the heavy rain and drought situation，by choosing 64 seconds counting times，high precision calibrated equations could be got with soil moisture within 1.01% to 29.92%. The results indicated that the neutron probe method could be used to test soil moisture，and the calibrated equations precision could be satisfied the actual test requirements.

Application of Climate Suitability Index Coupling Soil Moisture in Dynamic Yield Prediction of Winter Wheat in Shandong Province

QIU Meijuan， SONG Yingbo， WANG Jianlin， WU Dingrong， LIU Ling， LIU Jiandong

2015, 36(02):  187-194.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.02.009

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Taking into account soil moisture， and taking advantage of developmental stages， yield material and daily meteorological data of 14 weather stations from 1981 to 2011 in Shandong Province， and each tenday soil moisture material of 20 centimeter in growth stages of winter wheat， the climate suitability index in different growth stages of winter wheat were constructed. In addition， dynamic yield forecast model of each tenday during March to May were established， based on two kinds of climate suitability index， via the correlation and regression analysis with meteorological yield， and history back to the generation of test and dynamic extrapolation forecast were made. The results showed that the climate suitability index that considering soil moisture could reflect the influence of weather and soil moisture conditions on the yield formation more objective， and its correlation with meteorological yield had all passed the significant test of the 0.01 level， which was greater than the correlation between climate suitability taking no account of soil moisture and meteorological yield. The mean accuracy of the dynamic prediction model of yield for historical fitting test was all above 95.0%， and the standardized root mean square error RMSE was less than 6%. The dynamic prediction of yield in 2010-2011 showed that， the accuracy of the highest reached 99.4%， and the lowest was 95.4%. The accuracy of prediction was higher so that the dynamic prediction model of yield could apply to operational service．

Genetic Parameter Debugging for Main Rice Varieties in Hetao Irrigation Area in Ningxia Region

LIU Yuxi， LIU Jing， WANG Lianxi， LI Qi

2015, 36(02):  195-202.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.02.010

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In order to estimate the impact of chilling damage to rice with the CERESRice model， the main rice genetic parameters in Hetao irrigation area must be determined. Based on observed data during 1966-2013 from national agrometeorological experimental station in Zhongwei and Yongning， combined with the weather and attribute of soils at the same period， the genetic parameters were debugged. The days of anthesis and maturity， rice yield， aboveground biomass weight at maturity， maximum leaf area index were used to verify the error between measured and simulated value of three main rice varieties （Ningjing28， Fuyuan4 and Ningjing16）. The results showed that the genetic parameter for midseason rice Fuyuan4 had the best performance， and the D index of anthesis， maturity and yield was 0.86， 0.77 and 0.84， respectively. The genetic parameter for late rice Ningjing16 had better performance， and the D index of anthesis， maturity and yield was 0.86， 0.64 and 0.91， respectively. The genetic parameter for late rice Ningjing28 had good performance， the D index of anthesis， maturity and yield was 0.58， 0.77 and 0.92， respectively. The three main variety genetic parameters could be applied to simulate the rice growth in Hetao irrigation region， and used for rice chilling damages simulation study further ．

Characteristics of Temperature and Precipitation Change and the Influence on Climate Productive Potential in the Northwestern Liaoning

ZHANG Yimeng， ZHANG Xuesong， GUO Tingting， LUO Xinlan

2015, 36(02):  203-211.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.02.011

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The crop climatic productive potential in the Northwestern Liaoning was assessed based on daily mean Temperature and precipitation data from 23 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2010 and Thornthwaite Memorial Model， linearity analysis， and MannKendall test were used for the calculation. The spatiotemporal variations of the temperature， precipitation and climate productive potential were analyzed， while the impact of climate change on agricultural climate productive potential was studied. The results showed that the annual mean temperature increased at a rate of about 0.28℃·10y-1（P<0.01）with the annual mean temperature series altered significantly in 1987. In the nearest 50 years， the annual precipitation fluctuated with both time and spatial distribution. 82.6% of the region had a decreasing precipitation. The spatial and temporal distribution of climatic productive potential followed the same trend as precipitation. However， it was not varied dramatically on time scale. The region which climatic productive potential declined accounted for about 43.5%. Temperature and precipitation were two major influence factors for climatic productive potential， where linearity formed as precipitation performed as predominant aspect. The climate productive potential boosted at warm and wet condition while diminished under cold and dry situation. In 50 years， the grain output and climatic productive potential did not form a consistent pattern. However， they both fluctuated similarly in a large extent. Also， climatic efficiency increased every ten years. The area of interest still has room for growth at optimal weather condition.

Meteorological Conditions Analysis and Prediction Model Establishment on Spring Tea First Plucking Date in South Zhejiang

JIANG Yanmin，JIN Zhifeng，LI Songping，PAN Jianyi，MA Junhui

2015, 36(02):  212-219.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.02.012

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Based on the first plucking date in spring of 5 varieties tea in southern Zhejiang during 2001 to 2014，combined with temperature，precipitation，sunshine hour and air relative humidity and other meteorological elements，the mathematical statistical methods were used to analyze the impact to spring tea in southern Zhejiang，then the critical temperature and the range of accumulated temperature from different varieties of spring tea plucking date were discussed，and prediction models of the first plucking date were established further. The results showed that the first plucking date of Wuniuzao tea（Feb. 23）was the earliest in different varieties of spring tea from southern Zhejiang，followed by Longjing43 tea（Mar. 9），the third was Anjibai tea（Mar. 11），the fourth was Fudingdabai tea（Mar. 16），Jiukeng tea（Mar. 27）was the latest. The correlation coefficient between their plucking date and temperature during January to February was significant negative（P<0.05）. The higher the temperature，the earlier the first plucking date. The first plucking date sequence and meteorological elements were used to do the stepwise regression analysis，in order to establish longterm，midterm prediction models. The inspection of forecast results during 2013 to 2014 showed that，the accuracy of the prediction models increased with the prediction effectiveness shorten，the closer the plucking date，the higher the accuracy of forecasts. By analyzing the accumulated temperature and the desired temperature from varieties of spring tea，accumulated temperature will be calculated according to weather forecast temperature to adjust the prediction of plucking date on the basis of the prediction models actually．

Design on Weather Indices Model for Insurance of Rice Heat Damage in Anhui Province

YANG Taiming，SUN Xibo，LIU Buchun，XUN Shangpei

2015, 36(02):  220-226.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.02.013

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ased on daily meteorological data in Nanling County，Anhui Province from 1991 to 2001 and investigated main agrometeorological disaster type of regional rice during growing season，heat damage at booting filling stage was selected to design the model，due to the fact that heat damage has a serious effect on pollination and even reduced the yield. The daily maximum temperature more than 35℃（include 35℃）in 3 days continuously from July 21 to August 15 was defined as a high temperature process and taking accumulative value of daily effective high temperature difference as the heat damage weather index of rice insurance（ST）. 10℃ was considered as payment trigger value and in accordance with the extent of the disaster，the higher the extend the larger the payment standard. Through separation and detrended treatment of rice yield from 1991 to 2011 in Nanling County，yields and currency losses each year which caused by changes of weather conditions，was calculated. Comparing to the probability of occurrence of weather index and historical yield loss，the trigger value and the payment standard of index insurance payments was determined，and heat damage weather index model was established. Combining with the actual disaster situations，the calculation process of model was applied in Nanling County through setting the parameter values. The weather index insurance product had strong operational，which could provide a reference for similar areas of heat damage weather index insurance.

Risk Assessment and Distribution of Winter Drought for Melon and Vegetables in Hainan Island

BAI Rui，HUO Zhiguo，JIANG Huifei，YANG Jianying

2015, 36(02):  227-233.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.02.014

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Based on daily meteorological data from 18 meteorological stations，crop sown area and yield data in Hainan Island from 1998 to 2011，the winter drought risk，yield loss risk for melon and vegetables and their drought resistant capacity were calculated by using natural disaster risk analysis principle and method. The comprehensive drought risk index was established based on three indices，including drought risk index，yield loss index and drought resistant capacity index for watermelon，cowpea，paprika and luffa. The risk distribution of winter drought was conducted in Hainan Island. The results showed that the comprehensive drought risk index of above four kinds of melon and vegetables increased from the northeast to the southwest in Hainan Island，with peak value located in mainly Dongfang，Changjiang and Ledong counties. The result could provide reference to manage winter drought risk for melon and vegetables in Hainan Island.

Evaluation of Different Spatial Interpolation Methods in Regional Temperature Sequence: A Case Study in Northeast China

CHEN Sining，GUO Jun

2015, 36(02):  234-241.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.02.015

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It is significant to establish high accuracy temperature grid data set with long time series to study climate change，crop growth and development，disaster impact and assessment. Based on observed climate standard values data from 104 meteorological stations and annual temperature data in Northeast China from 1971 to 2000，by using the spatial interpolation methods，the annual mean temperature temporal and spatial distribution in Northeast China were studied and the accuracy of the interpolation methods was evaluated with the error indicators，temperature characteristic values and time series temperature curves. The result showed that，on the spatial scale，the interpolation results based on the Partial Thin Plate Smoothing Splines（PTPSS）with the elevation as the covariate was better than other methods，with the RMSE 0.341℃，and the MAE 0.264℃，followed by Cokriging method（with the elevation as covariates），again as the ordinary Kriging method. On the temporal scale，the time series annual mean temperature curve form 1971 to 2000 based on PTPSS（with the elevation as the covariate）was consistent with the time series temperature curve extracted from the reference grid temperature data set. The correlation coefficients of the mean temperature，maximum temperature and minimum temperature curves extracted from the interpolated temperature grid set based on PTPSS and the corresponding curves from the reference grid temperature set were greater than 0.9. The results indicated that the PTPSS interpolation method with the elevation as the covariate was the most suitable for the construction of the annual mean temperature surface in Northeast China.