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Table of Content

    20 August 2017, Volume 38 Issue 08
    Effect of Flux and its Uncertainty on Tall Tower CO2 Concentration Simulation in the Agricultural Domain
    HU Cheng, ZHANG Mi, XIAO Wei, WANG Yong-wei,WANG Wei, TIM Griffis,LIU Shou-dong, LI Xu-hui
    2017, 38(08):  469-480.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2017.08.001
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    Based on the CO2 concentration observations in U.S. corn belt, which was measured at 100m height of a tall tower, hourly CO2 concentration was simulated for the growing season (June–September, 2008) with the WRF-STILT model. And the effect of flux uncertainty on modeled CO2 concentration was also analyzed. The results showed as: (1) WRF-STILT model can simulate the observed strong diurnal variation in growing season, with RMSE be 13.70molmol-1, and it was overestimated by 7.26molmol-1, the shape and area of intense footprint zonesare different for different months (September>August>June>July) .(2) The difference of regional average anthropogenic CO2 flux for EDGAR and Carbon Tracker was within 6%, when both of them were at the same spatial resolution, the simulated CO2 enhancement difference was close to 10%. (3) Spatial resolution can lead to large bias in the modeled CO2 enhancement, when using 1o emissions, the simulated CO2 enhancement was only 0.4 times of the results using 0.1o emissions, and with the decreases of spatial resolution, the modeled bias increases. (4) Daytime and nighttime NEE of Carbon Tracker is 2.26 and 1.56 times that of tall tower NEE observations, and the misrepresentatives of underlying land use categories can lead to about 12molmol-1 bias in the modeled results, which may be the potential reason of bias high for 7.26molmol-1. Our study concludes that when combing WRF-STILT model with high quality CO2 flux, the strong diurnal variation of CO2 concentration can be well simulated, and the uncertainty of CO2 flux is the main reason for modeled CO2 concentration bias, it also indicates the potential of evaluating and retrieving prior CO2 flux.

    Characteristics of Agricultural Meteorological Disasters in China from 1976 to 2015
    LIU Xiao, HE Xue-min, YOU Song-cai
    2017, 38(08):  481-487.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2017.08.002
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    Based on the statistical data from 1976 to 2015, the disaster rate, loss rate and levels of major agricultural meteorological disasters were calculated and analyzed, including flood, drought, hail and low temperature. The results revealed that, (1) in general, disaster-induced rate of major agricultural meteorological disasters decreased from 1976 to 2015 in China, while the trend of disaster-affected rate and no harvest rate were not significant. Drought was almost the same as the overall trend. The flood-induced rate, flood-affected rate and no harvest rate showed the characteristics of stage change, and the average of those three indicators from 1986-2005 was the largest. The hail falling trend was remarkable, and disaster-induced rate and disaster-affected were significantly reducing. However, the low temperature disaster rate of the 10-year average gradually increased. (2) The upper and lower limits of the overall loss rate increased first and then decreased, with an average loss rate of 7.1%-15.7%. Drought and flood showed the trends of increased first and then decreased, hail showed decreasing trend, while low temperature showed increasing trend. The average loss rate of drought, flood, hail and low temperature were 2.0%-4.2%, 3.8%-8.6%, 0.8%-1.7% and 0.5%-1.1% respectively. (3) The number of times of flood at severe level was the most, thus flood was a sudden disaster. Drought and hail were normal disasters with a high frequency.
    Risk Assessment of Single-season Rice Yield Loss in Anhui Province
    GUO Jian-mao, XIE Xiao-yan, WU Yue, WANG Jin-jie, SHEN Shuang-he
    2017, 38(08):  488-495.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2017.08.003
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    Based on yield data of single-season rice in 50 city-county from 1981 to 2014 in Anhui province, the relative meteorological yield was calculated by using the methods of linear sliding average in statistical analysis. The temporal and spatial distribution of relative meteorological yield was analyzed by the method of EOF, and by using synthetic risk index of single-season rice yield loss, which was established and consisted of average yield reduction rate, yield variation coefficient, risk index of yield reduction rate and index of regional agricultural levels, the risk regionalization of single-season rice yield loss in Anhui province was completed. The results showed that the change trend of single-season rice yield was consistent and the increase or decrease of yield in the north of Anhui was more obvious than the south. Besides, the relative meteorological yield of Anhui fluctuated violently before 2005. The different assessment indices of yield loss showed that the values of average yield reduction rate, yield variation coefficient and risk index of yield reduction rate in the north part of study areas was higher than the south, and the index of regional agricultural levels for single-season rice was reduced from northeast to southwest. In the study area, the north had the higher risk. The high risk and middle risk regions were mainly distributed in Yanhuai areas and the north of Jianghuai areas. The low risk areas had the widest distribution and were located in southern mountainous area, Yangtze river region and the south of Jianghuai region.
    Simulation on Effects of Rice Growth under Different Nursery Period and Shed Temperature in Hetao Irrigation Region
    LIU Jing, LIU Yu-xi, WANG Lian-xi, Li Qi, MA Guo-fei,Ma Li-wen
    2017, 38(08):  496-506.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2017.08.004
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    In order to obtain the composite meteorological index of rice suitable nursery and transplanting date in Hetao irrigation area, the genetic parameters of Ningjing 16 were debugged by CERES-Rice model using the agrometeorological data observed from 1996 to 2003 in Zhongwei. The rice yield, the number of grains per m2, the period from sowing to flowering, and the whole growth period were simulated, and the model regional simulation ability was verified by the data of 10 counties and cities in irrigation areas of Ningxia. Setting different nursery days and shed temperature, the separate and comprehensive effects of the two factors on the yield, grain number per square meter and the growth process were simulated to determine the comprehensive meteorological indexes suitable for transplanting date. The results showed that the model had a good simulation ability for rice yield, grain number, sowing to flowering days and whole growth period. The maximum errors of yield and grain number were 2.93% and 3.47%, and the consistency index was up to 0.98 and 0.92, respectively. The simulation error of sowing to flowering period was mostly within 3 days, and the consistency D index was 0.77. Assume that the meteorological conditions, fertilization, irrigation and other measures were unchanged after transplanting, set different nursery period and shed temperature, simulation results showed that the yield and grain number in 26-30d nursery was higher than that in 18-24d. Under the condition of 32℃, the yield and the number of grains were the highest, and the number of days from sowing to flowering and the whole growth period was relative short. At the same time to change the nursery period and the shed temperature, under the short seedling period condition, raising the shed temperature increased the yield and the grain population. While the long seedling period condition, raising the shed temperature caused the decline in production and grain number. Under the condition of 32℃ and 20d, the yield was the highest, the grain population was the most, the period from seeding to flowing and the whole growth were relatively short. The days from sowing to flowing and the whole growth period under the same nursery period were shortened with the increase of shed temperature, but shortened with the extend of nursery period under the same shed temperature. The optimum nursery period was obtained at different shed temperatures, which could be used as a comprehensive agrometeorological indicators to predict the suitable transplanting date at different county in Hetao irrigation area. The results provide a new way to refine the comprehensive agricultural meteorological index of suitable transplanting period.
    Estimating the Last Date without Sterile-type Chilling Injury for Rice Based on a Model for Evaluation of Loss for Sterile-Type Chilling Injury in Northeast China
    CHEN De, YANG Shen-bin, JIANG Li-xia, XU Hao, LI Xiu-feng, HUANG Wei
    2017, 38(08):  507-516.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2017.08.005
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    With the meteorological data and rice phenological records from 35 weather stations during 1981 to 2012, daily empty grain rates of rice were estimated by the model of evaluation and forecast of loss for sterile-type cool injury in rice plants. Three parameters were set to represent rice varieties with three types of cold tolerance. The date with empty grain rate estimated up to physiological empty grain rate (7.62%) was chosen as the last date without sterile-type cool injury for rice (NSCI). For each station, NSCI was estimated with 80% of guarantee rate. The results showed NSCI advances with latitudes. The NSCIs for rice with weak, normal and strong cold tolerance in Heilongjiang Province were on 14, 17 and 22 July respectively, while in Jilin Province they were on 18, 21 and 25 July respectively, and on July 28th, August 4th, August 10th, respectively in Liaoning Province. In recent 30 years, the temporal variation of NSCI in northeast China was evident, which showed a deferred trend during 2001 to 2012 in some area of northeast China. Comparison of chilling injuries during 30 days before and after NSCIs with that during 30 days before and after observed heading dates showed that the method used in this study is able to estimate NSCIs for rice in northeast China with enough accuracy, which can effectively help agricultural management prevent and mitigate chilling damage in rice key development stage.
    Correlation between Meteorological Factors and Late Frost Damage in Huanghuai Winter Wheat Region —A Case Study of Shangqiu in Henan Province
    LIU Hong-jie, WU Yong-feng, REN De-chao, NI Yong-jing, HU Xin
    2017, 38(08):  517-525.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2017.08.006
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    Based on the meteorological data and frost damage observation data in Shangqiu during 1956-2015, meteorological conditions for the occurrence of late frosts were analyzed firstly, and then partial correlation and linear regression model of grass surface temperature (GT) and air temperature (AT), ground temperature (ST), relative humidity (RH), wind speed (WS) were studied to explore the relationship between meteorological factors and late frost damage. The results showed that the accumulated temperature (CT) in winter and spring increased year by year at 4.35℃·d·y-1 with the climate warming. Late frost injury to winter wheat was closely related to the antecedent precipitation and accumulated temperature in addition to the cold air activity. If previous accumulated temperature was too high or the amount of precipitation was less, frost damage was prone to occur. With the development of young ear, its sensitivity to sub-freezing temperature increased, and the minimum temperature causing frost injury had a tendency to rise. Air temperature, ground temperature, average relative humidity and average wind speed were significantly correlated with grass surface temperature (P<0.01), with an order of ground temperature>air temperature>average relative humidity>average wind speed. It could be seen that the average relative humidity and average wind speed also played important roles to the occurrence and severity of frost damage, in addition to air temperature and ground temperature. The multiple linear regression model of the four meteorological factors and grass surface temperature was established by following formula: Y=0.558ST+0.482AT+0.087RH+1.304WS-12.704. The model has been tested by 0.01 significant levels and could predict grass surface temperature very well. Furthermore, reliable frost damage assessment results could provide for areas where the grass surface temperature sensor was not installed.
    Research on Natural Disaster Vulnerability and Its Poverty-Causing Effect in Contiguous Poor Rural Areas
    YAN Ting-wu, ZHANG Tong-chao, ZHANG Jun-biao
    2017, 38(08):  526-536.  doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2017.08.007
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    In order to explore the natural disaster vulnerability of farmers and its poverty-causing effect in the process of marketization to find the primary point in taking targeted measures in poverty alleviation. Based on the rural survey data of contiguous poor areas in Guangxi and Shaanxi, this paper analyzed farmers’ perception about various disaster risks, evaluated farmers’ vulnerability to natural disaster and market risk. Then the article conducted a comparative study on the poverty-causing effect of natural disaster vulnerability and market risk vulnerability through the Entropy method and Probit model. The results showed that:(1)the farmers’ perception level on the natural disaster is higher than the market risk, which indicates that natural disasters, especially droughts and floods, are the main threats to farmers.(2)Farmers’ natural disaster vulnerability is higher than the market risk vulnerability, which showing that natural disasters are more likely to cause losses than market risks for farmers.(3)The raise of natural disaster vulnerability level will significantly increase the possibility of farmers’ dropping into poverty, its effect to cause poverty is stronger than the market risk vulnerability. But the effect of natural disaster vulnerability is negatively related to market risk vulnerability statistically. Therefore, the poverty caused by natural disasters cannot be ignored, and in order to lift farmers in contiguous poor areas from poverty, it is supposed to take improving the ability of rural disaster mitigation in the first place, and then to promote small farmers participating in big market effectively.