中国农业气象 ›› 2012, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (03): 325-332.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.03.002

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

近50年华东地区热量资源变化特征分析

张立波,吉宗伟,郑选军,王丽华   

  1. 浙江省绍兴市气象局,绍兴312000
  • 收稿日期:2011-11-13 出版日期:2012-08-20 发布日期:2012-08-27
  • 作者简介:张立波(1980-),山东潍坊人,硕士,工程师,主要从事应用气象及气候变化影响评价研究。Email:mengqiu842@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    浙江省科技厅重点农业项目(2011C22082)

Variation Characteristics of Thermal Resources in Eastern China in the Past 50 Years

ZHANG Li bo,JI Zong wei,ZHENG Xuan jun,WANG Li hua   

  1. Shaoxing Meteorological Bureau of Zhejiang Province,Shaoxing312000,China
  • Received:2011-11-13 Online:2012-08-20 Published:2012-08-27

摘要: 利用1961-2010年华东地区87个气象站日平均气温资料,运用线性倾向估计等方法,对华东地区近50a来≥0℃和≥10℃积温及其持续天数和起止日期的时空分布特征进行分析,以了解气候变暖对该地区热量资源分布的影响。结果表明,1961-2010年华东地区气温持续增高,回归系数达0.24℃/10a,趋势系数为0.68(P<0.01),各项热量资源指标与气温呈显著正相关(P<0.05)。随着气候变暖,≥0℃和≥10℃的积温及持续天数普遍显著增加;≥0℃积温为5000、6000℃·d和≥10℃积温为4500、5500℃·d,以及≥0℃持续天数为300、340d和≥10℃持续天数为220、240d的等值线从华北平原南部和长江下游地区向北大幅推进,长江下游地区北移幅度较大,≥0℃和≥10℃积温及持续天数明显北移的起始年代分别为20世纪90年代和21世纪前10a。≥0℃和≥10℃积温及持续天数普遍增加是受起始日期提前和终止日期延后的共同影响,而前者的影响更明显。

关键词: 华东地区, 热量资源, 积温, 持续天数, 气候变暖, 气温

Abstract: Based on the daily average air temperature data from 87 meteorological stations in Eastern China from 1961 to 2010,authors identified the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of accumulated temperature steadily above 0℃ and 10℃,their lasting days,the beginning and ending date over recent 50 years by using linear trend estimation,in order to find out the impact of climate warming on the distribution of Eastern China's thermal resources. The results showed that the air temperature increase continuously in Eastern China,and the regression coefficient of annual average air temperature was 0.24℃/10y,the trend coefficient was 0.68(P<0.01),and it was well correlated with the other thermal resources indexes(P<0.05).The accumulated temperature and lasting days steadily above 0℃ and 10℃ increased significantly in Eastern China widespread along with climate warming. The contours of the accumulated temperature steadily above 0℃(5000℃·d and 6000℃·d) and 10℃(4500℃·d and 5500℃·d) and the lasting days steadily above 0℃(300d and 340d) and 10℃(220d and 240d) moved greatly northward in the south of the North China plain and the lower reaches of the Yangtze river,and more significantly in the lower reaches of the Yangtze river. The response starting time was from the 1990s and 2000s respectively. The widespread increase of the accumulated temperature steadily above 0℃ and 10℃ and their lasting days was influenced by the beginning date advancing and the ending date delaying,furthermore the influence of the beginning date advancing was more than that of the ending date delaying.

Key words: Eastern China, Thermal resources, Accumulated temperature, Lasting days, Climate warming, Air temperature

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