关键词: 五味子, MaxEnt模型, 潜在适生区, 气候驱动机制, 资源保护

Abstract:

This study evaluated the impactd of climate scenarios and land−use changes on the potential suitable habitats of Schisandra chinensis (Turcz.) Baill. based on land−use data and 55 actual species distribution records. The assessment employed the MaxEnt model under four climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585) for the present period (1970−2000) and three future periods (2041−2060, 2061−2080 and 2081−2100). The analysis quantified the driving mechanisms of key environmental factors and projected the dynamics of suitable habitats. The results are intended to provide data support for formulating conservation strategies for wild magnolia vine resources, guiding standardized ecological cultivation, and facilitating scientific regional planning. Furthermore, this research offers a reference for maintaining the survival and expansion of wild populations and for harmonizing the utilization of medicinal plant resources with ecological conservation. The results showed that: (1) the dominant factors affecting the distribution of suitable habitats of S. chinensis in China were precipitation of the wettest quarter, elevation, precipitation seasonality (Coefficient of variation), temperature seasonality (standard deviation), average maximum temperature in December, average monthly precipitation for May, slope and aspect, with a cumulative contribution rate of 91.6% to species distribution. (2) Under the historical climatic conditions, the highly suitable habitats of S. chinensis were mainly concentrated in the three northeastern provinces (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning), the junction of Hebei and Shanxi, the border area of Shaanxi, Gansu and Sichuan, and the mountainous area of central Shandong. In contrast to the historical period, the potential suitable habitats of S. chinensis exhibited an overall northward expansion trend under future climate scenarios (2041–2100): the newly emerging suitable habitats in northeast China expanded significantly, while the highly suitable habitats at the southwestern edge of the Shaanxi−Gansu−Sichuan border area shrank consistently. The centroid of suitable habitats generally shifted toward high latitudes, with the migration amplitude gradually increasing with rising emission intensity. (3)When superimposed with land use changes, under the SSP585 scenario during 2081−2100, the area of highly suitable habitats in croplands increased by approximately 319% compared with the historical period, and that in forest lands increased by about 184.3%. Overall, under future climate scenarios, land use change will drive the northward expansion and migration of suitable habitats for S. chinensis. It is recommended to prioritize the establishment of protected areas in vulnerable highly suitable habitats such as the Shaanxi−Gansu−Sichuan border region, promote forest ecological cultivation in the emerging suitable areas of northeast China while coordinating cropland protection, and establish a dynamic monitoring system to formulate differentiated management schemes, so as to achieve the conservation and sustainable utilization of its resources.

Key words: Schisandra chinensis (Turcz.) Baill., MaxEnt model, Potential suitable habitat, Climate driving mechanism, Resource conservation