中国农业气象 ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (10): 1603-1618.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2026.10.006

• 农业生物气象栏目 • 上一篇    下一篇

极端天气对中国水稻产量影响的研究进展

陈欣童,李心怡,赵闯,王茜,林若薇,邱渝欣,丛佳慧,王若诗,赵瑞越,杨晓光   

  1. 中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京 100193
  • 收稿日期:2025-07-04 出版日期:2026-10-20 发布日期:2026-10-19
  • 作者简介:陈欣童,E-mail:chenxintong2004@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划项目(2024YFF0808403)

Research Progress on the Impact of Extreme Weather on Rice Yield in China

CHEN Xin-tong, LI Xin-yi, ZHAO Chuang, WANG Qian, LIN Ruo-wei, QIU Yu-xin, CONG Jia-hui, WANG Ruo-shi, ZHAO Rui-yue, YANG Xiao-guang   

  1. College of Resources and Environment Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
  • Received:2025-07-04 Online:2026-10-20 Published:2026-10-19

摘要:

全球气候变化导致极端天气事件频发与增强的背景下,中国水稻生产面临的农业气象灾害风险日益严峻,对国家粮食安全构成潜在威胁。为系统揭示极端天气对水稻生产的影响,本研究立足东北、长江流域及东南沿海三大水稻主产区的气候环境与种植特征,综合分析单一农业气象灾害和复合农业灾害对水稻产量的影响。结果表明:影响水稻生产的主要单一气象灾害为极端高温和低温,干旱和洪涝次之。这些农业气象灾害因发生在不同生育阶段,显著影响水稻生长发育进程、干物质积累与分配规律;高温干旱、低温寡照等复合农业灾害在严重性、复杂性和不可预测性较单一灾害更为突出,对水稻产量造成更加严重的危害。生产实践与科研中,相关研究仍面临灾害链长期监测体系不完善、气象指标适用性有限、多因子交互作用解析不充分及作物模型模拟精度待提升等问题。未来需进一步深化多源数据整合、构建复合灾害风险评估模型等,开展灾害致灾机理、精细化指标修订、多因子交互作用解析、作物模型精度提升以及适应性调控技术等方向的研究,为保障中国水稻产业的气候韧性与可持续发展提供理论依据和决策支撑。

关键词: 高温, 低温, 干旱, 洪涝, 复合农业气象灾害

Abstract:

Under the background of frequent and enhanced extreme weather events caused by global climate change, the risk of agro−meteorological disasters faced by rice production in China is becoming more serious, posing a potential threat to national food security. In order to systematically reveal the impact of extreme weather on rice production, based on the climatic environment and planting characteristics of the three major rice−producing areas in northeast China, the Yangtze River basin and the southeast coast of China, this study comprehensively analyzed the impact of single agrometeorological disaster and compound agricultural disaster on rice yield. The results showed that the main single meteorological disasters affecting rice production were extreme high temperature and low temperature, followed by drought and floods. The stress response of these disasters to rice significantly affected its growth and development processes, with dry matter accumulation and distribution due to differences in growth stages. Compound agricultural disasters such as high temperature and drought, low temperature and low light were more severe, complex and unpredictable than single disasters, causing more severe damage to rice yield. In production practice and scientific research, related research still faced problems such as imperfect long−term monitoring systems of the disaster chain, limited applicability of meteorological indicators, and insufficient analysis of multi−factor interactions and improved accuracy of crop model simulations. In the future, it is necessary to further deepen the integration of multi−source data, construct a composite disaster risk assessment model, and carry out research on disaster−causing mechanisms, refined index revision, multi−factor interaction analysis, crop model accuracy improvement and adaptive regulation technology, so as to provide theoretical basis and decision support for ensuring the climate resilience and sustainable development of China's rice industry.

Key words: High temperature, Low temperature, Drought, Flooding, Compound agro?meteorological disasters