关键词: 安徽, 洪涝灾害, 风险度, 变化趋势, R/S分析

Abstract: Based on analysis of dominant factors leading to flood and waterlogging disaster,indexes for flood and waterlogging risk assessment were selected and their weights were determined by means of AHP method on the weight of entropy.The flood and waterlogging risk evaluating model was established and country-level based risk regionalization of flood and waterlogging in Anhui Province was carried out.The interannual-scale variation tendencies of damaged area of Anhui province and every sub-region were predicted based on statistical data of damaged area drawing from 78 counties of Anhui province during 1998-2007.The results showed that the counties located at Huaibei plain,the western region of the hill terrain between the Yangtze and Huaihe river and the western plain along the Yangtze river suffered higher flood and waterlogging risk degree,while counties in the mountain areas of southern and western Anhui province had lower degree.During the year 1998-2007,the damaged area in high-risk region,sub-high region and the whole region represented an increasing tendency and there was a decreasing tendency for other regions.However,Hurst indexes obtained from R/S analysis indicated that this trend could not continue in the future and might change in the opposite direction.

Key words: Anhui, Anhui, Flood-waterlogging disaster, Risk degree, Variation tendency, R/S aalysis