关键词: 伊犁河谷, 气候变化, t-检验, 保证率

Abstract: Based on the accumulated temperature ≥0℃ and ≥10℃，daily meteorological data in frostless period from 10 meteorological stations in Ili river basin from 1961 to 2010，the temporal and spatial distribution of heat resources was analyzed by using linear regressions，ttest and spatial interpolation method.According to the heat demand of local double cropping regimes，including wheat corn，wheatsoybean and wheat forage，the changes of double cropping area under climate change was analyzed.Meanwhile the climate risks were evaluated by using heat guarantee rate derived from heat data under climate changeThe results showed that the annual accumulated temperature ≥0℃ and ≥10℃ increased by 89.9℃·d·10y-1 and 88.0℃·d·10y -1 （P＜0.05），respectively，the frostless period increased by 5.4d·10y -1 （P＜0.05）from 1961 to 2010，both of their abruption changes occurred in 1997.After the abruption，the distribution of heat resources showed high value in plains，followed by in hills and in mountains.Heat resources did not meet the demand of double cropping production in Ili river basin before 1997，but the accumulated temperature ≥0℃ and ≥10℃ and frostless period reached 4217.7℃·d，3649.6℃·d and 197d，respectively，all of them could meet the demand of double cropping，and the climate guarantee rate was more than 85.7%，which meant that double cropping production can be applied after the abruption.The results indicated that wheat soybean double cropping was very feasible with a more than 93% climate guarantee rate，however wheat maize double cropping was possible in risky.The results could provide theoretical references for the development of multiple cropping system in Ili river basin and North Xinjiang.

Key words: Ili river basin, Climate change, ttest, Guarantee rate